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Yea - I was using 5 games. So you see what I was doing. Assuming we only need four games, changes the calculation of course. But not really that much in terms of order of magnitude. From a statistical viewpoint though, giving us 100% as a probability at Duke isn’t consistent with the other...

As I’ve said in another thread, using some simple statistical modeling, our chances are 3% (0.03125). Tonight‘s result changed nothing. The only mathematical quibble you might have with my calculation is that I assume each desired result as having a 50-50 chance of occurring. In other words a...