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You're close. We have a 6% chance. That's based on several 1000 games where Vegas has had the underdog as an 18-19 dog

Looking back at about 1600 college games over 16 years where a team has been favored by about 19 points we have about a 6 in 100 chance of winning. True story. But I will tell you ,from a much smaller sample size ,that you always take the points 1st game of the year when one team has an...