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My sense is, and this isn't exactly a stretch, we are more experienced but slightly less talented overall. We have some groups where the talent is pretty close, such as defensive backs. We have other groups where the talent is way behind, such as defensive line and offensive line arguably, but...

Believe it it not, but 18 point dogs win about 6% of the time. That's still LONG ODDS, but it could happen.

If the line ends up around 19 points, then typically in college football that translates to a 3% chance of winning as judged by the betting public (and somewhat backed up historically).