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Turnover margin is actually stronger, but I find it to be less useful in predictive analytics and less controllable by coaches (yes, Defensive coordinators can coach for strips and play riskier blitz packages, etc.) than when you use it as support (in hindsight). Of course, teams with more...

We obviously use different sites for our stats because our numbers are slightly different. So, I'm not really sure what the NCAA decides counts as a game vs what other sites do (perhaps remove non-D1 games, perhaps include bowl games, etc.). As for the more important comment about 3rd down...

Come on. There's context to everything. You're way better than that conclusion. We played different teams in totally different settings and had the ball bounce (straight luck) totally different ways. But, 3rd down percentages on both sides of the ball are correlated to winning teams throughout...

There's a correlation between 3rd down % and wins, though. On both sides of the ball.