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  1. Lance Roffers

    Upon Further Review: Manny Diaz as DC

    They are entwined with one another and YPP > YPD without question. What you’re really looking for here is percentage of possible yards achieved per drive. Other than to follow-up on some data questions asked, this will be my last reply on this topic.
  2. Lance Roffers

    Upon Further Review: Manny Diaz as DC

    But it doesn’t because it weights success the same.
  3. Lance Roffers

    Upon Further Review: Manny Diaz as DC

    Why? They’re a subset of the same thing.
  4. Lance Roffers

    Upon Further Review: Manny Diaz as DC

    It lies dramatically. The best third down for an offense? The one it doesn’t face. Is a defense good because it gives up a bunch of first downs before it even reaches third down? Of course not. Is a defense great if it allows 0-3 on third down in a game? What if it was giving up giant chunks of...
  5. Lance Roffers

    Upon Further Review: Manny Diaz as DC

    I know what you’re saying, and I absolutely agree that misinterpreted stats can lead to more damage. I also agree with those saying that there are so many moving parts in football that there is simply never going to be one star that clearly evaluates it all. What we do is the best we can with...
  6. Lance Roffers

    Upon Further Review: Manny Diaz as DC

    How would the same variables not apply to everyone else as well? TFL are good. Limiting explosive plays is a good thing. The defense you described in your post would be one of the best defenses in football. Why? Forcing a team to convert 3rd & 6 over and over is what you’re looking to do...
  7. Lance Roffers

    Upon Further Review: Manny Diaz as DC

    Pretty much.
  8. Lance Roffers

    Upon Further Review: Manny Diaz as DC

    I didn’t include them in the results. I was asked a question and answered.
  9. Lance Roffers

    Upon Further Review: Manny Diaz as DC

    Yes. Not good.
  10. Lance Roffers

    Upon Further Review: Manny Diaz as DC

    Signed every defense in America. Defense is entirely dependent on the offense. The point of isolating performance of an offense against other peer offenses, and removing the game against the DC so as not to double count the data, was to show how your defense did in comparison to each offense...
  11. Lance Roffers

    Upon Further Review: Manny Diaz as DC

    I did it tie to the opponents offensive performance against other peers. TOP has shown to be completely useless. R^2 under .10 if Clemson’s offense is performing well, that would impact Venables negatively because we know that teams pass more when they’re trailing and most every team has...
  12. Lance Roffers

    Upon Further Review: Manny Diaz as DC

    Success rate is honestly more prone to outliers than YPP. Example: A 3-yard run on 3rd & 2 and a 75-yard TD run on 3rd & 2. Both are 100% success rate and obviously vastly different impacts to the game. Manny’s scheme looks to impact explosive plays from the offense and create their own...
  13. Lance Roffers

    Upon Further Review: Manny Diaz as DC

    This did not bear out in the data and is false.
  14. Lance Roffers

    Upon Further Review: Manny Diaz as DC

    Has been shown to have little stickiness.
  15. Lance Roffers

    Upon Further Review: Manny Diaz as DC

    I’ll look into answering your questions.
  16. Lance Roffers

    Upon Further Review: Manny Diaz as DC

    I did. They weren’t as good as you’d think. Though his last year with Simmons was elite. Felt like adding him would distract from my overall point and possibly derail.
  17. Lance Roffers

    Upon Further Review: Manny Diaz as DC

    I didn’t because I don’t have reliable data or even a suggestion from Manny that be even called any defensive plays.
  18. Lance Roffers

    Upon Further Review: Manny Diaz as DC

    I accounted for talent by taking into account how those same teams fared against other peer institutions and calculating the difference. The fact is: Baker did a poor job.
  19. Lance Roffers

    Upon Further Review: Manny Diaz as DC

    Scratch Aranda from the list. He outperformed him.
  20. Lance Roffers

    Upon Further Review: Manny Diaz as DC

    With the news coming out that Manny will serve as the playcaller for the defense, returning to the de facto DC position, I wanted to dive deeper to establish whether Coach Diaz was a top-shelf DC or not. Methodology It started with a Twitter debate, where fans online perceived Coach Diaz as...
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