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Interesting question. I'll say at that point it's still an analytical decision, but you read the flow of the game to decide "what are my odds of converting 4th and 1 in this game?". If I still think my odds are above 42.5% (or whatever the breakeven point is), then I go for it. If I think my...

I'll do one that we all have seen, and that ties into Expected Value. It's 4th and 1 on the opponents goal line. You have a good kicker, who never misses from the 1 but your line does risk a block. Considering blocking concerns, you have a 99% chance of making the kick. Kicking has an EV of...