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If the game against UAB is close, a second-year head coach in his first game coming out with a win is "in big trouble?" How much glue do you eat in a given day?

They can. They can also continue to fail. Where is the data on all the coaches who went .500 in year one and never won more than 10 games?

Larry Coker won his first 25 games as an HC.

The Saban example establishes no precedent whatsoever, and is entirely irrelevant to Diaz's success. It's a cherry-picked stat with absolutely no correlation to, or causation for, Diaz to win at Miami. You might as well say "Lebron James wore a green shirt on a Tuesday so Diaz will win a Natty...

No, the latter is far, far more ridiculous of an assumption to make. At least the former is based in SOMETHING germane to his performance this year.

There's not even just one that's being missed. Correlation does not imply causation. Past results in this instance are unreliable predicting future results. Cherry-picking samples is not indicative of the data population. The statement might as well have been "two people drove five times and...

You can easily, easily pull many, many more stats on coaches that didn't do well in their first year and never did well. I'd suggest reading the intro of Statistics for Dummies, because your statement is based in literally nothing.