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Exactly. Misses just look worse when it's out of a pool of only 30 or so vs. 1000 3*'s. "The NCAA said in 2013 there were 310,000-some seniors playing football. Here’s how long their odds are to reach various recruiting ratings, using class of 2018 data from Rivals, if we settle on 300,000...

https://www.thedailystampede.com/2021/11/9/22757052/usf-college-football-recruiting-star-rankings-signing-day-info-news-average-nfl-draft-trends "This means that roughly 13% of five-stars have become a consensus all-American player, or arguably the best player at his position in the respective...