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I don't see where you gave the defense credit for the excess field position it generated on 3rd downs due to its "over aggressiveness". An *ideal* analysis would have said, "the defense's struggles stopping 3rd down conversions cost the team X pts vs average, but the 3rd down havoc plays...

There are two glaring issues with this analysis, one of which is mentioned in the last section: 1) This analysis penalizes the defense for the cost of being overly aggressive (i.e. giving up some 3rd downs), but does not take into account the benefit, which is field position improvements from a...