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You can't just disregard scoring additional runs, of course, but the overall point stands: it's not a situation where you ONLY go if you're sure. You go if you have a pretty good shot, and he definitely had a pretty good shot, given how great a play Lala had to make to get him by 1 foot.

These are MLB stats, but I would imagine they are similar for NCAA. Odds of scoring 1 run would've been 23% pts higher had he been successful, and 28% pts lower after he failed. If all you care about is tying the game, then you go if you have at least a ~55% chance of making it, which he...

So you can take a chance with the game not on the line? Doesn't make a whole lot of sense. You should make the right baseball play at all times. You can score from 2nd on a hit, but you can score from 3rd on contact. Lala made an absolutely spectacular play. He made a good play just to stop...

Some inconsistency in your opinions here. Getting to third would've meant Duke would've only needed to make contact, vs get a base hit, against a nasty closer.

Seems like it happens more than once in a while with this team.