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First, investing in big tech is similar to investing in big tech in the 70s, 80s, and 90s. At some point, the big tech will be broken up much like IBM, GE, Bell, and others. Thus, it is more important to know when to exit as it will keep growing until the government steps in. I do believe we are...

35B less of QT starting in June is the big news from the FED. $245B of FED buying treasuries $300-400B in the Repo $1T in the TGA

TGA should have $1t of funds to pump into the economy. Repo has around 300b. 1.3T off sets the 1.2T of Fed QT and I suspect the Fed will actually slow QT. This could extend the bull market.

I don't expect 0% unless they overcorrect or we have a big emergency. My guess would be a bottom around 2% with mortgages in the 4-5% range. You see Republic First Bank failed? Tiny compared to last year's BUT a little ironic it hit one month after BTFP expired.

Correct. That said, if you are 100% sure this is a 10-15 year home: I would buy it. Heck, I'm looking to buy a new primary soon and have my eyes on one that will be an estate sale in the coming weeks/months. 1. Rates will fluctuate over the coming years so refi into rates when they hit 4-5%...

Mario has to make me a believer first. He can recruit but can he win at Miami like he did at Oregon? Can Miami get out of the acc?

Depends on the market just like it depends on the stock. It also depends on how long you plan to hold the investment and if you are buying with leverage. Real estate tends to kill the stock market if using leverage.

Creeping closer to stagflation

Tesla profits will depend on production of vehicles, government credits for EV buying, solar credits, more mass production models (4 currently). If they add the model 2, cyber, and semi all in 1-3 years, profits should be fine. Fsd will be much longer than 1-3 years. My projection would be 10-15...

They have already said they would be reducing QT in May. I’d have to assume that would be $40b of treasuries that roll over vs shedding. Assume the keep shedding MBS. This would be step one for handling the repo draining. This would introduce a big treasuries buyer which should drop rates some...

Was more about forward guidance of having the model 2 available by early 2025. My take: when has Tesla ever beat a deadline for mass production? I could see this jump fading due to current economic conditions.

IMO, it would depend greatly on other factors: what are your other holdings, tolerance for risk, etc

Repo goes to $0, the US Treasury has to go to the public for T-Bills thus costing them more and driving up the short-term rates. This I have to believe drives up the cost of M2 for companies, and consumers... no? This could cause banks to fail due to a lack of liquidity via the reverse repo. No...

Anyone else checking the reverse repo? Down to 400b which means it should be $0 by June/July. Yet another reason to expect FED action.

They may never reach rural America but anything within 1hr of a city will get impacted. Since the majority of America is within 1hr of a city, it will have a MASSIVE impact on GDP and car companies.

In 15-20 years, I believe we will be done buying cars multiple cars that just sit in our driveways. My family has 4 cars currently and I'd have that down to 1 IF I knew I could Uber and have a car to my house when I wanted that would take me to where I wanted at under $.25/mile. The only reason...

That is all you have? Last I checked, our car companies are supported by our government. Tariffs against imports, tax credits for EV/ hybrids, corporate tax relief for U.S.-based manufacturing… Headwinds for Chinese car companies: Geopolitical, Chinese demand isn't like the US/Europe with...

I also think a massive upside will be advancement in battery technology. Even if they are heavier but can last 1m miles and use easier to find minerals… this would move the needle against ICE and the power grid

As Spike said, very unlikely they disappear anytime soon. It would take car companies billions to remove them so don’t expect. As for FSD for other companies, not likely as the cars are engineered to have the input for FSD that other companies don’t have now. I also see the upside in...

Did a quick search on car sales. The average price across all cars is down 5% due to 2023 inventory still on the lots in April. Some cars are taking over 4 months to sell from ship or factory to customer. Thus, Tesla’s $2k drop in price is less than other companies since their average sales...