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They only got McIntosh "wrong", depending on what you think the measure of "right" is. They got McIntosh wrong if you think star ratings are intended to be the perfectly exact ranking 1-300 of the top HS recruits. Yes, if you think that's what getting it right means, then they got it wrong...

Yes. Thank you. This is correct. Just because there can be outlier results doesn't mean the probabilities were wrong initially

Missed this one too. No, I haven't gone astray. You have, by trying to make statistical correlations based on the deviation of one player's outcome compared with his expected value. And your example further makes my point, not yours.

Missed this one. Completely agree with the part directed at me. And heck, even something as difficult to estimate as future physical development enters into it. Khris Bogle is ranked as the 3rd best WDE recruit in the US. He weighs 215 pounds. His #3 raking assumes that he grows and...

There's a lot of truth to that. Personally, I see the distribution of elite college players/NFL draft picks generally occurring along the lines of the star ratings; i.e. more 5 stars achieve elite status and NFL draft success than 4 stars, more 4 stars than 3 stars, etc. So I don't know that...

Ok that works. It's a perfectly fine criteria to say that you'd assign star ratings based on the schools recruiting a given kid. But then what do you do with the kids who are highly recruited by Alabama, UGA, OSU, Clemson, etc., and then turns out to not be an elite college player and isn't...

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The objective measure for probability is easy. It's whether performance in college (as measured by draft selection in this conversation) is distributed along the lines of the star rankings. That means that vast majority of 5 stars perform at an elite level (although by no means all 5 stars do...

Last comment. We just see this one differently. I'll say that I consider this to be an incorrect observation: That example in no way proves that Rivals was wrong. If I make a double-my-money wager and get get 2:1 odds, and you make a double-your-money wager at 1:1 odds, we can both win...

Thank you. Yes this summarizes the point I was making. And D$, imo you're still hung up by not distinguishing between star rankings as an indication of the probability that a given player becomes elite, vs star rankings as an absolute indication of the most elite 300 players. If your...

Entertaining exchange. The issue is that in actuality the rating services have two criteria, one mathematical (which you're focused on) and the other a narrative description (which boxing robes is focused on). The problem arises because the two criteria are in conflict with each other. Both...