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According to football reference win probability calculator ... 4th Quarter, 3:04 remaining, leading by 3, ball at team 15, 1st down & 10 to go ... UVA 85.23 win probability 4th Quarter, 3:04 remaining, leading by 3, ball at team 25, 1st down & 10 to go ... UVA 87.14 win probability 4th...

Onside kick was the right call. Not teaching the team how to run it is on Richt, especially after GT last year.