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Oh, I'm not saying those teams are incapable of breaking 8.5 wins, it's just that you'd be asking to see significant improvement from A) an FSU team with a new coach who only won six games last season at Oregon B) A Texas team that was TERRIBLE in multiple games last year and C) a Michigan team...

FSU, Michigan and Texas at 8.5 too? Who's making these lines? That's a bit ambitious.

8.5 seems like a gimme. I'm not touching 9.5. I believe Miami covered last year despite losing a game off their schedule.