Lake breaks down UM Pass Defense by the Numbers: The Worst Stretch of the Cristobal Era and What Hetherman Must Change

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David Lake opened his 247Sports article with a provocative line: the Miami defense is going through the worst stretch of results of the Mario Cristobal era. Period.

I wanted to argue with him. Then I read the numbers.

The last four games​

• 31 points allowed per game. That's 100th in FBS.
• 324 passing yards allowed per game. That's 137th.
• 13 passing touchdowns allowed. That's 138th, dead last.

And that's against one top-25 offense in that stretch: Notre Dame.

Is it 2024 again?​

Lake was surprised by one comparison. Over the full season, this year's pass defense is about 40 yards per game worse than the 2024 pass defense, and it's trending the wrong way.

Somehow 2024 still feels worse. Lake thinks it's because this year's deep balls feel more like Hail Mary shots, while 2024 gave up organic deep shots in competitive games.

Overall, though, 2024 was worse by a meaningful amount. That defense was 70th in scoring defense against FBS teams at 26.7 points a game. This one is 29th at about 20.8. The run defense, which is elite, colors everything.

We aren't in the same kind of shootouts.

What scares me is the trend.

In 2024, we didn't start bad. We dominated Florida and looked solid against South Florida. It got worse every week, all the way to Iowa State. That's what this looks like right now. If it stops here, with a get-right chance against Duke, then Virginia Tech, Boston College, it's a different story.

If the trend continues, it's 2024.

One more thing that shook me: look at the 2024 quarterbacks. Fernando Mendoza. Tyler Shough. Kyle McCord, who's starting for the Dolphins this week. Three of the quarterbacks who hurt us that year are NFL starters now.

The quarterbacks this year aren't as good, and we're giving up more.

New holes every week​

Lake's big-picture point is that teams find a different hole every week. Against Pitt, we gave up the most deep-shot yardage in the country, much of it on a Hail Mary in a game we controlled. The next week, UNC hit us for the most short passing yardage in the country.

Here's the breakdown from his article:

• Clemson. The first sign the blitz wasn't working. Tait Reynolds, an inexperienced quarterback, went 9-for-10 for 98 yards against our blitz. We sacked him three times, but if a freshman is beating your blitz, that's a bad sign.
• Florida State. Bad screen defense and lazy coverage technique. The screens went for 57 yards and two touchdowns. On throws of 16-plus air yards, FSU went 4-for-10 for 160 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Some of those were huge plays.
• Pitt. More lazy technique. The Hail Mary, young guys getting caught and Ethan O'Connor getting beat. We were asleep because we were controlling the game. You can't do that.
• North Carolina. The low point. UNC completed 13 of 14 passes thrown between 10 yards behind the line and 5 yards past it, for 154 yards, the second most allowed in the country that week. There were 22 missed tackles and 167 yards after the catch on those short throws, the most in the country by 20 yards.
• Notre Dame. The tackling got fixed. But CJ Carr's quick game worked, and two touchdowns went to the same receiver. On one, the middle of the field was basically empty.

Teams aren't running on us. They're throwing.​

Since Clemson, opponents are throwing about 36 passes a game, the 18th most in the country. Volume alone is fine. Volume at 8.9 yards per attempt, the 13th worst in the country, is the problem.

The genesis is the run defense. It's so good that offensive coordinators scrapped the run and started treating the quick pass as an extended run play: spit it out fast and make us tackle in space. And we've missed 42 tackles defending the pass since Clemson. That's controllable. It got cleaned up at Notre Dame and has to stay that way against Duke. That's the low-hanging fruit.

Lake floated a dangerous idea: address the pass defense more before the snap and invite teams to run into the defense. Maybe you give up 3.5 yards a carry instead of 2.5, but if your pass defense gets better, he'd take that trade. He admits it's risky this week with a back like Duke's.

First down is the neon sign​

This is the stat that jumps off the page.

Since Clemson, opponents throw 16 passes on first down per game, the second most in the country. They complete 70.7 percent at 9.2 yards per attempt. We're 129th in first-down pass efficiency defense.

Last year, teams threw only 11.5 first-down passes per game against us, 75th most in the country. That's the change. Rueben Bain and that front made you think twice. Now, teams are throwing on first down to stay ahead of the chains against us.

Lake's take: Corey Hetherman is locked in on what opponents usually do. Most of the time, that's the right approach. But right now, teams are breaking their own tendencies to attack him. He needs to pay attention to what teams are doing against Miami, not what they did the week before.

The pass rush and the blitz​

Lake counts five defensive linemen with NFL futures. What this defense needs is a game where four of them play well together. Get that, and a lot of the issues correct themselves.

So far, it hasn't happened:

• Damon Wilson II: 11 pressures and 2.5 sacks.
• Marquise Lightfoot was the guy until Notre Dame, then he struggled.
• Armondo Blount started fast but has been quiet since, with injuries a factor.
• Justin Scott was the best lineman on either team at Notre Dame. If he played for Notre Dame, we'd have had big problems.
• Ahmad Moten continues to create havoc in the interior with a veteran presence.

Over the last four games, we're getting pressure on only 27.2 percent of dropbacks, 104th in the country. Lake thinks most of that is teams getting the ball out early, which is another adjustment offenses have made against us.

The blitz numbers are worse. Last year, with Keionte Scott and Jakobe Thomas and mostly the same linebackers, we were 14th in pass efficiency defense when Hetherman blitzed. This stretch, we're 104th. On first down, we blitz 42.7 percent of the time, the third most in the country, and give up 10 yards per attempt on those blitzes, 104th. Last year, that ranked 13th.

Lake sees two causes. Teams have a year and a half of film and know what's coming, and the personnel is different. Keionte was a dynamite blitzer screaming off the edge from the nickel. We don't have one of those this year.

Personnel: what Lake would change​

Lake is clear that he's not a coach and that the staff knows more than he does. With that caveat, here's what he'd tweak.

• Bryce Fitzgerald at free safety. His strength is coverage, not physicality.
• A nickel competition between JJ Dunnigan and Omar Thornton. Rotate them and let whoever is more consistent win the job. Dunnigan is going to be a tremendous safety, but teams are going after a freshman. During this stretch, he's been targeted 27 times and allowed 23 catches for 366 yards and a touchdown, with an interception. His skill set fits the nickel. The trade-off is that a big nickel won't cover a slot receiver as tightly as a true corner, but almost nobody plays a true corner at nickel anymore.
• Simplify. In the second half at Notre Dame, the numbers show we dialed back the blitz and played about 50 percent man coverage, which is a lot for Hetherman. Rush four and let the corners play man. Mix in other looks, but simplify so guys can regain confidence and know their jobs. Right now it feels like their heads are spinning.
• Let Lightfoot rush. Since Clemson or FSU, our second-leading tackler-misser against the pass has been Lightfoot. That's because we drop him into coverage, and he ends up chasing quick-game throws in the flat. He only drops about six times a game, but he's our best pass rusher. Let him rush.

The linebacker problem​

Mohamed Toure embodies the split between our run defense and our pass defense. He's a great run defender. He's also allowed the most passing yards in coverage of any Power 4 linebacker, 28 of 31 for 372 yards and two touchdowns. That's the 32nd most of any defender in FBS.

Lake doesn't mind Toure as the middle linebacker. His issue is pairing him with Chase Smith, another big linebacker. Last year, Toure played next to Wesley Bissainthe, who was more athletic. Everything around Mo is different now, and the middle of the field, the linebacker level and the short game are getting picked on.

A get-right game for the rush​

Against an immobile quarterback, a tiny interior line and receivers without much juice, all of this points one way.

This has to be the week four defensive linemen show up together, the tackling holds and Hetherman starts game-planning for what teams are doing to him rather than what they usually do.

Do that, and the trend line Lake is worried about bends back the right way.

Lake's full article is on 247Sports, and the full conversation, including his Duke prediction, is on the CanesInsight YouTube channel. Subscribe and turn on notifications for game day.

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