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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

  • Amid the debate over whether and when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, another important argument is unfolding: where do rates settle in the long run? Modeling the effects of interest rates therefore requires not only an estimate of neutral, but also of how sensitive spending is to rate changes and the lag between spending and prices, The WSJ reports. “That’s a lot to get right, especially when errors in one area can easily be mistaken for mis-estimates elsewhere,” said Jason Thomas, chief economist at private-equity manager Carlyle.
 
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SpikeUM said:
I think you and @90scane are talking apples and oranges. He is referring to investment real estate, not a personal home.
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Correct.

That said, if you are 100% sure this is a 10-15 year home: I would buy it. Heck, I'm looking to buy a new primary soon and have my eyes on one that will be an estate sale in the coming weeks/months.
1. Rates will fluctuate over the coming years so refi into rates when they hit 4-5%. Mortgage rates tend to be 2.9% over the FED funds rate (the bank spread/profit) which influences the 10yr treasuries.
2. Inflation will remain hot for many years due to multiple factors the biggest being government debt and spending. Thus, the home will appreciate a bunch.
3. Assuming you are getting a loan and can afford the payments, you likely come out ahead simply due to inflation.
 
SpikeUM said:
  • Amid the debate over whether and when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, another important argument is unfolding: where do rates settle in the long run? Modeling the effects of interest rates therefore requires not only an estimate of neutral, but also of how sensitive spending is to rate changes and the lag between spending and prices, The WSJ reports. “That’s a lot to get right, especially when errors in one area can easily be mistaken for mis-estimates elsewhere,” said Jason Thomas, chief economist at private-equity manager Carlyle.
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I don't expect 0% unless they overcorrect or we have a big emergency. My guess would be a bottom around 2% with mortgages in the 4-5% range.

You see Republic First Bank failed? Tiny compared to last year's BUT a little ironic it hit one month after BTFP expired.
 
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Cmuri said:
Tesla on fire. Partnership with Baidu. FSD approval in China.
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This appears to be a brilliant move on Elon's part! To fly over and meet with the very pro business #2 guy, Li Qiang and come out apparently with regulatory approvals for FSD. What did Elon promise Qiang? Will this jump start FSD adoption world wide?
 
Tesla short sellers are down more than $5 billion in the past five days, per data from S3 Partners, as the stock has rallied nearly 40% since the company reported quarterly results after the bell on April 23.
ric flair GIF
 
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GladeCane said:
This appears to be a brilliant move on Elon's part! To fly over and meet with the very pro business #2 guy, Li Qiang and come out apparently with regulatory approvals for FSD. What did Elon promise Qiang? Will this jump start FSD adoption world wide?
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Please yes!!!
 
TGA should have $1t of funds to pump into the economy. Repo has around 300b.

1.3T off sets the 1.2T of Fed QT and I suspect the Fed will actually slow QT. This could extend the bull market.
 
Tomorrow is employment and manufacturing which has been a strong point. Employment may actually drop. Interest rates will remain the same…no surprise there.
Muh LLY popped on weight loss revenue…consumer confidence dropped.
 
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Bird4um said:
Mc D misses ... Had to be.. All by me are dead...
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It takes a rare occurrence to get me to stop and eat there and it’s the closest place to where I live. I can count on one hand how many times I’ve gone in 5 years easily.
GladeCane said:
Dollar menu is now the $3 menu.
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Cheaper to go to flanigans for lunch than McDonald’s 😂
 
Canefan4life said:
It takes a rare occurrence to get me to stop and eat there and it’s the closest place to where I live. I can count on one hand how many times I’ve gone in 5 years easily.


Cheaper to go to flanigans for lunch than McDonald’s 😂
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Three of us went to Mcdonalds, what would have been $12, 3 years ago, is now $18.
 
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