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NFL Draft Reality

Rellyrell

Rellyrell

Heisman Winner
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Dec 19, 2013
Messages
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I’ve sat on this post for approx. a month b/c I wanted the draft to come to full fruition.

There’s several CIS narratives that need to be laid to rest.

1. Stars Do Indeed Matter. Out of the first 135 draft picks (The first 4-Rd picks are almost guaranteed a full contract):
-54.8% were considered Blue Chips either at the HS or Transfer Portal level
-37.0% were considered 3*
-8.2% were considered 2* or below

To put this in further context, just looking at the recruiting class of 2025, as an example, only 33% of the star rated players are considered Blue Chips, while 67% are considered 3*.

This proves that despite the higher quantity of 3* kids available, the Blue Chips are the ones who are undoubtedly getting drafted w/in the “guaranteed rounds” at an astronomically higher rate.

2. Winning Matters. Let’s examine:

UofM - 13 draft picks. (61.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Texas - 11 draft picks (54.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Bama - 10 draft picks (70% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UW - 10 draft picks (70% came w/in first 4-Rds)
FSU - 10 draft picks (60% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UO - 8 draft picks (87.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UGA - 8 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
PSU - 8 draft picks (62.5% came w/in first 4 Rds)
ND - 7 draft picks (42.8% came w/in first 4-Rds)
LSU - 6 draft picks (83.3% came w/in first 4-Rds)
OSU - 4 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Iowa - 4 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UL - 4 draft picks (25% came w/in first 4-Rds)
OU - 3 draft picks (33% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UA - 3 draft picks (67% came w/in first 4-Rds)

These 15 teams went a combined 159-33 on the season, & accounted for 51.1% of the draft’s top 135 picks! The exceptions to this were both Ole Miss & OKSt. Both finished w/ 10+ wins, but failed to produce a top 135 pick.

3. Athleticism Matters. The top guys possessed not only game film, but gym film. These guys either had ideal height, weight, length (pause), and/or elite athleticism.

4. Character Matters. In speaking to a couple of scouts, some of the things they shared was that many began to focus on the “whys & hows” of a player. As example what was shared w/ me:
-Why is a highly rated player transferring so much?
-Why is a highly rated player not producing or developing as they mature?
-How many self inflicted penalties or turnovers were caused killing or extending drives in pivotal moments? (Mental Fortitude)
-How does the coaching staff view them, both past & present if they are a transfer?
-How do their teammates view them?
-How many lapse in judgment take place while on the field? (IQ)
-Are there character issues that present themselves in game, during timeouts, etc?

5. Coaching Matters. Again, in speaking to a couple of scouts, I was floored at how many kids come in ill prepared, & certain coaches have better reputations at having kids NFL ready from a physical & mental standpoint than others.

For instance, I was told if a 3* kid play for Coach A, & a 5* kid play for Coach B, they will almost always go w the non-Blue Chip kid b/c of the program they come from, & trust their developmental process. (Although I was told sometimes they still look at HS ratings + college game film, to gage if a kid can be coached up based upon potential)

Why do I say all of this? Well, here’s the honest truth; we have a perception problem. The other sad truth is this simple: The “mopes” tend to be more in tune to CFB, as a whole, vs. being strict fanatics of Miami. Therefore, when they say “Player A will be lucky to be drafted or Player A is not a 1st rounder”, history has shown it’s usually not shade as opposed to looking at everything in totality, & objectively.

Here’s something else that’s going to sting, & I mean no offense, just talking in reality:

Mario is currently underperforming his predecessors after 2 yrs both record wise & via draft (& this includes inherited players & transfers)

However there is good news? This can all be a thing of the past IF we have an expected good 3rd yr. Literally, we have the power to change the narrative moving forward. Hopefully, this will be our last embarrassing draft, & we can go back to being NFLU vs. 7th Rd/UDFAU.
 
Last edited:
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Rellyrell said:
I’ve sat on this post for approx. a month b/c I wanted the draft to come to full fruition.

There’s several CIS narratives that need to be laid to rest.

1. Stars Do Indeed Matter. Out of the first 135 draft picks (The first 4-Rd picks are almost guaranteed a full contract):
-54.8% were considered Blue Chips either at the HS or Transfer Portal level
-37.0% were considered 3*
-8.2% were considered 2* or below

To put this in further context, just looking at the recruiting class of 2025, as an example, only 33% of the star rated players are considered Blue Chips, while 67% are considered 3*.

This proves that despite the higher quantity of 3* kids available, the Blue Chips are the ones who are undoubtedly getting drafted w/in the “guaranteed rounds” at an astronomically higher rate.

2. Winning Matters. Let’s examine:

UofM - 13 draft picks. (61.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Texas - 11 draft picks (54.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Bama - 10 draft picks (70% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UW - 10 draft picks (70% came w/in first 4-Rds)
FSU - 10 draft picks (60% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UO - 8 draft picks (87.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UGA - 8 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
PSU - 8 draft picks (62.5% came w/in first 4 Rds)
ND - 7 draft picks (42.8% came w/in first 4-Rds)
LSU - 6 draft picks (83.3% came w/in first 4-Rds)
OSU - 4 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Iowa - 4 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UL - 4 draft picks (25% came w/in first 4-Rds)
OU - 3 draft picks (33% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UA - 3 draft picks (67% came w/in first 4-Rds)

These 15 teams went a combined 159-33 on the season, & accounted for 51.1% of the draft’s top 135 picks! The exceptions to this were both Ole Miss & OKSt. Both finished w/ 10+ wins, but failed to produce a top 135 pick.

3. Athleticism Matters. The top guys possessed not only game film, but gym film. These guys either had ideal height, weight, length (pause), and or elite athleticism.

4. Character Matters. In speaking to a couple of scouts, some of things they shared many began to focus on are “whys & hows” of a player. As example what was shared w/ me:
-Why is a highly rated player transferring so much?
-Why is a highly rated player not producing or developing as they mature?
-How many self inflicted penalties or turnovers were caused killing or extending drives in pivotal moments? (Mental Fortitude)
-How does the coaching staff view them, both past & present if they are a transfer?
-How do their teammates view them?
-How many lapse in judgment take place while on the field? (IQ)
-Are their character issues that present themselves in game, during timeouts, etc?

5. Coaching Matters. Again, in speaking to a couple of scouts, I was floored at how many kids come in ill prepared, & certain coaches have better reputations at having kids NFL ready from a physical & mental standpoint than others.

For instance, I was told if a 3* kid goes play for Coach A, & a 5* kid goes play for Coach B, they will almost always go w the kid the non-Blue Chip kid b/c of the program they come from, & trust their developmental process. (Although I was told sometimes they still look at that, HS ratings + college game film, to gage if a kid can be coached up based upon potential)

Why do I say all of this? Well, here’s the honest truth; we have a perception problem. The other sad truth is the simple: The “mopes” tend to be more in tune to CFB, as a whole, vs. being strict fanatics of Miami. Therefore, when they say “Player A will be lucky to be drafted or Player A is not a 1st rounder”, history has shown it’s usually not shade as opposed to looking at everything in totality.

Here’s something else that’s going to sting, & I mean no offense, just talking in reality:

Mario is currently underperforming his predecessors after 2 yrs both record wise & via draft (& this includes inherited players & transfers)

However there is good news? This can all be a thing of the past IF we have an expected good 3rd yr. Literally, we have the power to change the narrative moving forward. Hopefully, this will be our last embarrassing draft, & we can back to being NFLU vs. 7th Rd/UDFAU.
Click to expand...
Relly and the math do not lie.
 
Rellyrell said:
I’ve sat on this post for approx. a month b/c I wanted the draft to come to full fruition.

There’s several CIS narratives that need to be laid to rest.

1. Stars Do Indeed Matter. Out of the first 135 draft picks (The first 4-Rd picks are almost guaranteed a full contract):
-54.8% were considered Blue Chips either at the HS or Transfer Portal level
-37.0% were considered 3*
-8.2% were considered 2* or below

To put this in further context, just looking at the recruiting class of 2025, as an example, only 33% of the star rated players are considered Blue Chips, while 67% are considered 3*.

This proves that despite the higher quantity of 3* kids available, the Blue Chips are the ones who are undoubtedly getting drafted w/in the “guaranteed rounds” at an astronomically higher rate.

2. Winning Matters. Let’s examine:

UofM - 13 draft picks. (61.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Texas - 11 draft picks (54.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Bama - 10 draft picks (70% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UW - 10 draft picks (70% came w/in first 4-Rds)
FSU - 10 draft picks (60% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UO - 8 draft picks (87.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UGA - 8 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
PSU - 8 draft picks (62.5% came w/in first 4 Rds)
ND - 7 draft picks (42.8% came w/in first 4-Rds)
LSU - 6 draft picks (83.3% came w/in first 4-Rds)
OSU - 4 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Iowa - 4 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UL - 4 draft picks (25% came w/in first 4-Rds)
OU - 3 draft picks (33% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UA - 3 draft picks (67% came w/in first 4-Rds)

These 15 teams went a combined 159-33 on the season, & accounted for 51.1% of the draft’s top 135 picks! The exceptions to this were both Ole Miss & OKSt. Both finished w/ 10+ wins, but failed to produce a top 135 pick.

3. Athleticism Matters. The top guys possessed not only game film, but gym film. These guys either had ideal height, weight, length (pause), and or elite athleticism.

4. Character Matters. In speaking to a couple of scouts, some of things they shared many began to focus on are “whys & hows” of a player. As example what was shared w/ me:
-Why is a highly rated player transferring so much?
-Why is a highly rated player not producing or developing as they mature?
-How many self inflicted penalties or turnovers were caused killing or extending drives in pivotal moments? (Mental Fortitude)
-How does the coaching staff view them, both past & present if they are a transfer?
-How do their teammates view them?
-How many lapse in judgment take place while on the field? (IQ)
-Are their character issues that present themselves in game, during timeouts, etc?

5. Coaching Matters. Again, in speaking to a couple of scouts, I was floored at how many kids come in ill prepared, & certain coaches have better reputations at having kids NFL ready from a physical & mental standpoint than others.

For instance, I was told if a 3* kid goes play for Coach A, & a 5* kid goes play for Coach B, they will almost always go w the kid the non-Blue Chip kid b/c of the program they come from, & trust their developmental process. (Although I was told sometimes they still look at that, HS ratings + college game film, to gage if a kid can be coached up based upon potential)

Why do I say all of this? Well, here’s the honest truth; we have a perception problem. The other sad truth is the simple: The “mopes” tend to be more in tune to CFB, as a whole, vs. being strict fanatics of Miami. Therefore, when they say “Player A will be lucky to be drafted or Player A is not a 1st rounder”, history has shown it’s usually not shade as opposed to looking at everything in totality.

Here’s something else that’s going to sting, & I mean no offense, just talking in reality:

Mario is currently underperforming his predecessors after 2 yrs both record wise & via draft (& this includes inherited players & transfers)

However there is good news? This can all be a thing of the past IF we have an expected good 3rd yr. Literally, we have the power to change the narrative moving forward. Hopefully, this will be our last embarrassing draft, & we can back to being NFLU vs. 7th Rd/UDFAU.
Click to expand...
I applaud your commitment but I'm sure it will fall on deaf ears as "Manny" continues to loom over the program.
 
Great post.

I like how you highlighted both Ole Miss and Ok St as the two schools that didn’t produce top 135 picks despite winning 10 games.

Both of those schools just so happen to have borderline Top 10 head coaches that specialize in elite offensive playcalling.
 
Sunshine pumpers not gonna like this..

Champions League Football GIF by UEFA
 
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Rellyrell said:
I’ve sat on this post for approx. a month b/c I wanted the draft to come to full fruition.

There’s several CIS narratives that need to be laid to rest.

1. Stars Do Indeed Matter. Out of the first 135 draft picks (The first 4-Rd picks are almost guaranteed a full contract):
-54.8% were considered Blue Chips either at the HS or Transfer Portal level
-37.0% were considered 3*
-8.2% were considered 2* or below

To put this in further context, just looking at the recruiting class of 2025, as an example, only 33% of the star rated players are considered Blue Chips, while 67% are considered 3*.

This proves that despite the higher quantity of 3* kids available, the Blue Chips are the ones who are undoubtedly getting drafted w/in the “guaranteed rounds” at an astronomically higher rate.

2. Winning Matters. Let’s examine:

UofM - 13 draft picks. (61.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Texas - 11 draft picks (54.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Bama - 10 draft picks (70% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UW - 10 draft picks (70% came w/in first 4-Rds)
FSU - 10 draft picks (60% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UO - 8 draft picks (87.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UGA - 8 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
PSU - 8 draft picks (62.5% came w/in first 4 Rds)
ND - 7 draft picks (42.8% came w/in first 4-Rds)
LSU - 6 draft picks (83.3% came w/in first 4-Rds)
OSU - 4 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Iowa - 4 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UL - 4 draft picks (25% came w/in first 4-Rds)
OU - 3 draft picks (33% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UA - 3 draft picks (67% came w/in first 4-Rds)

These 15 teams went a combined 159-33 on the season, & accounted for 51.1% of the draft’s top 135 picks! The exceptions to this were both Ole Miss & OKSt. Both finished w/ 10+ wins, but failed to produce a top 135 pick.

3. Athleticism Matters. The top guys possessed not only game film, but gym film. These guys either had ideal height, weight, length (pause), and or elite athleticism.

4. Character Matters. In speaking to a couple of scouts, some of things they shared many began to focus on are “whys & hows” of a player. As example what was shared w/ me:
-Why is a highly rated player transferring so much?
-Why is a highly rated player not producing or developing as they mature?
-How many self inflicted penalties or turnovers were caused killing or extending drives in pivotal moments? (Mental Fortitude)
-How does the coaching staff view them, both past & present if they are a transfer?
-How do their teammates view them?
-How many lapse in judgment take place while on the field? (IQ)
-Are their character issues that present themselves in game, during timeouts, etc?

5. Coaching Matters. Again, in speaking to a couple of scouts, I was floored at how many kids come in ill prepared, & certain coaches have better reputations at having kids NFL ready from a physical & mental standpoint than others.

For instance, I was told if a 3* kid goes play for Coach A, & a 5* kid goes play for Coach B, they will almost always go w the kid the non-Blue Chip kid b/c of the program they come from, & trust their developmental process. (Although I was told sometimes they still look at that, HS ratings + college game film, to gage if a kid can be coached up based upon potential)

Why do I say all of this? Well, here’s the honest truth; we have a perception problem. The other sad truth is the simple: The “mopes” tend to be more in tune to CFB, as a whole, vs. being strict fanatics of Miami. Therefore, when they say “Player A will be lucky to be drafted or Player A is not a 1st rounder”, history has shown it’s usually not shade as opposed to looking at everything in totality.

Here’s something else that’s going to sting, & I mean no offense, just talking in reality:

Mario is currently underperforming his predecessors after 2 yrs both record wise & via draft (& this includes inherited players & transfers)

However there is good news? This can all be a thing of the past IF we have an expected good 3rd yr. Literally, we have the power to change the narrative moving forward. Hopefully, this will be our last embarrassing draft, & we can back to being NFLU vs. 7th Rd/UDFAU.
Click to expand...
Adam Sandler Yes GIF
 
Rellyrell said:
I’ve sat on this post for approx. a month b/c I wanted the draft to come to full fruition.

There’s several CIS narratives that need to be laid to rest.

1. Stars Do Indeed Matter. Out of the first 135 draft picks (The first 4-Rd picks are almost guaranteed a full contract):
-54.8% were considered Blue Chips either at the HS or Transfer Portal level
-37.0% were considered 3*
-8.2% were considered 2* or below

To put this in further context, just looking at the recruiting class of 2025, as an example, only 33% of the star rated players are considered Blue Chips, while 67% are considered 3*.

This proves that despite the higher quantity of 3* kids available, the Blue Chips are the ones who are undoubtedly getting drafted w/in the “guaranteed rounds” at an astronomically higher rate.

2. Winning Matters. Let’s examine:

UofM - 13 draft picks. (61.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Texas - 11 draft picks (54.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Bama - 10 draft picks (70% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UW - 10 draft picks (70% came w/in first 4-Rds)
FSU - 10 draft picks (60% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UO - 8 draft picks (87.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UGA - 8 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
PSU - 8 draft picks (62.5% came w/in first 4 Rds)
ND - 7 draft picks (42.8% came w/in first 4-Rds)
LSU - 6 draft picks (83.3% came w/in first 4-Rds)
OSU - 4 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Iowa - 4 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UL - 4 draft picks (25% came w/in first 4-Rds)
OU - 3 draft picks (33% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UA - 3 draft picks (67% came w/in first 4-Rds)

These 15 teams went a combined 159-33 on the season, & accounted for 51.1% of the draft’s top 135 picks! The exceptions to this were both Ole Miss & OKSt. Both finished w/ 10+ wins, but failed to produce a top 135 pick.

3. Athleticism Matters. The top guys possessed not only game film, but gym film. These guys either had ideal height, weight, length (pause), and/or elite athleticism.

4. Character Matters. In speaking to a couple of scouts, some of the things they shared was that many began to focus on the “whys & hows” of a player. As example what was shared w/ me:
-Why is a highly rated player transferring so much?
-Why is a highly rated player not producing or developing as they mature?
-How many self inflicted penalties or turnovers were caused killing or extending drives in pivotal moments? (Mental Fortitude)
-How does the coaching staff view them, both past & present if they are a transfer?
-How do their teammates view them?
-How many lapse in judgment take place while on the field? (IQ)
-Are there character issues that present themselves in game, during timeouts, etc?

5. Coaching Matters. Again, in speaking to a couple of scouts, I was floored at how many kids come in ill prepared, & certain coaches have better reputations at having kids NFL ready from a physical & mental standpoint than others.

For instance, I was told if a 3* kid play for Coach A, & a 5* kid play for Coach B, they will almost always go w the non-Blue Chip kid b/c of the program they come from, & trust their developmental process. (Although I was told sometimes they still look at HS ratings + college game film, to gage if a kid can be coached up based upon potential)

Why do I say all of this? Well, here’s the honest truth; we have a perception problem. The other sad truth is the simple: The “mopes” tend to be more in tune to CFB, as a whole, vs. being strict fanatics of Miami. Therefore, when they say “Player A will be lucky to be drafted or Player A is not a 1st rounder”, history has shown it’s usually not shade as opposed to looking at everything in totality.

Here’s something else that’s going to sting, & I mean no offense, just talking in reality:

Mario is currently underperforming his predecessors after 2 yrs both record wise & via draft (& this includes inherited players & transfers)

However there is good news? This can all be a thing of the past IF we have an expected good 3rd yr. Literally, we have the power to change the narrative moving forward. Hopefully, this will be our last embarrassing draft, & we can go back to being NFLU vs. 7th Rd/UDFAU.
Click to expand...
IMG_9973.JPG
Me to this post.
 
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It’s crazy how much more accurate the recruiting sites are getting. There was a long period where half the first round picks in the draft were former 3 stars but as the years go by, it’s fewer and fewer. Pretty much, outside of linemen almost every early pick was a blue chip prospect.
 
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People won’t say it but we should have known how much winning matters when we saw **** near 6-7 FSU guys coming off the board between Day 1 and 2…that’s the first 90 picks. And an undefeated FSU team had 6-7 guys picked. Winning plays a huge part in the draft as you said OP.
 
Rellyrell said:
I’ve sat on this post for approx. a month b/c I wanted the draft to come to full fruition.

There’s several CIS narratives that need to be laid to rest.

1. Stars Do Indeed Matter. Out of the first 135 draft picks (The first 4-Rd picks are almost guaranteed a full contract):
-54.8% were considered Blue Chips either at the HS or Transfer Portal level
-37.0% were considered 3*
-8.2% were considered 2* or below

To put this in further context, just looking at the recruiting class of 2025, as an example, only 33% of the star rated players are considered Blue Chips, while 67% are considered 3*.

This proves that despite the higher quantity of 3* kids available, the Blue Chips are the ones who are undoubtedly getting drafted w/in the “guaranteed rounds” at an astronomically higher rate.

2. Winning Matters. Let’s examine:

UofM - 13 draft picks. (61.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Texas - 11 draft picks (54.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Bama - 10 draft picks (70% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UW - 10 draft picks (70% came w/in first 4-Rds)
FSU - 10 draft picks (60% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UO - 8 draft picks (87.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UGA - 8 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
PSU - 8 draft picks (62.5% came w/in first 4 Rds)
ND - 7 draft picks (42.8% came w/in first 4-Rds)
LSU - 6 draft picks (83.3% came w/in first 4-Rds)
OSU - 4 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Iowa - 4 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UL - 4 draft picks (25% came w/in first 4-Rds)
OU - 3 draft picks (33% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UA - 3 draft picks (67% came w/in first 4-Rds)

These 15 teams went a combined 159-33 on the season, & accounted for 51.1% of the draft’s top 135 picks! The exceptions to this were both Ole Miss & OKSt. Both finished w/ 10+ wins, but failed to produce a top 135 pick.

3. Athleticism Matters. The top guys possessed not only game film, but gym film. These guys either had ideal height, weight, length (pause), and/or elite athleticism.

4. Character Matters. In speaking to a couple of scouts, some of the things they shared was that many began to focus on the “whys & hows” of a player. As example what was shared w/ me:
-Why is a highly rated player transferring so much?
-Why is a highly rated player not producing or developing as they mature?
-How many self inflicted penalties or turnovers were caused killing or extending drives in pivotal moments? (Mental Fortitude)
-How does the coaching staff view them, both past & present if they are a transfer?
-How do their teammates view them?
-How many lapse in judgment take place while on the field? (IQ)
-Are there character issues that present themselves in game, during timeouts, etc?

5. Coaching Matters. Again, in speaking to a couple of scouts, I was floored at how many kids come in ill prepared, & certain coaches have better reputations at having kids NFL ready from a physical & mental standpoint than others.

For instance, I was told if a 3* kid play for Coach A, & a 5* kid play for Coach B, they will almost always go w the non-Blue Chip kid b/c of the program they come from, & trust their developmental process. (Although I was told sometimes they still look at HS ratings + college game film, to gage if a kid can be coached up based upon potential)

Why do I say all of this? Well, here’s the honest truth; we have a perception problem. The other sad truth is this simple: The “mopes” tend to be more in tune to CFB, as a whole, vs. being strict fanatics of Miami. Therefore, when they say “Player A will be lucky to be drafted or Player A is not a 1st rounder”, history has shown it’s usually not shade as opposed to looking at everything in totality, & objectively.

Here’s something else that’s going to sting, & I mean no offense, just talking in reality:

Mario is currently underperforming his predecessors after 2 yrs both record wise & via draft (& this includes inherited players & transfers)

However there is good news? This can all be a thing of the past IF we have an expected good 3rd yr. Literally, we have the power to change the narrative moving forward. Hopefully, this will be our last embarrassing draft, & we can go back to being NFLU vs. 7th Rd/UDFAU.
Click to expand...

Excellent post-An eye opener for sure.

Year 3 he better start to turn it around.
 
Other than us, how many high 4 star and 5's were drafted way below what should be considered based off those numbers? Like 5th round through not being drafted?

When they signed with us (JW & LT) I do not remember anyone here moping that we picked them or thought they would wind up getting drafted late or not even drafted when their college careers ended. As a matter of fact no one did, or there being complaints we took either.

I still hope they prove everyone wrong, but they will have to do the work. JW will not get away with thumping and not wrapping up on tackles along with stupid penalties, and LT will have to show consistency.

The talent is there. I would have been ecstatic if my Steelers took either one of them. LT sitting behind and learning the game from Hampton. JW just seems like he would need reps at lb since it was a late switch to fine tune technique and his tackling, and of course the mental side. All the tools are there. Mental part probably applies to LT also.

Something is a miss. Again, they both have the tools necessary to succeed at some level in the NFL, they just need to apply themselves. WISH them the BEST !
 
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Rellyrell said:
I’ve sat on this post for approx. a month b/c I wanted the draft to come to full fruition.

There’s several CIS narratives that need to be laid to rest.

1. Stars Do Indeed Matter. Out of the first 135 draft picks (The first 4-Rd picks are almost guaranteed a full contract):
-54.8% were considered Blue Chips either at the HS or Transfer Portal level
-37.0% were considered 3*
-8.2% were considered 2* or below

To put this in further context, just looking at the recruiting class of 2025, as an example, only 33% of the star rated players are considered Blue Chips, while 67% are considered 3*.

This proves that despite the higher quantity of 3* kids available, the Blue Chips are the ones who are undoubtedly getting drafted w/in the “guaranteed rounds” at an astronomically higher rate.

2. Winning Matters. Let’s examine:

UofM - 13 draft picks. (61.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Texas - 11 draft picks (54.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Bama - 10 draft picks (70% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UW - 10 draft picks (70% came w/in first 4-Rds)
FSU - 10 draft picks (60% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UO - 8 draft picks (87.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UGA - 8 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
PSU - 8 draft picks (62.5% came w/in first 4 Rds)
ND - 7 draft picks (42.8% came w/in first 4-Rds)
LSU - 6 draft picks (83.3% came w/in first 4-Rds)
OSU - 4 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Iowa - 4 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UL - 4 draft picks (25% came w/in first 4-Rds)
OU - 3 draft picks (33% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UA - 3 draft picks (67% came w/in first 4-Rds)

These 15 teams went a combined 159-33 on the season, & accounted for 51.1% of the draft’s top 135 picks! The exceptions to this were both Ole Miss & OKSt. Both finished w/ 10+ wins, but failed to produce a top 135 pick.

3. Athleticism Matters. The top guys possessed not only game film, but gym film. These guys either had ideal height, weight, length (pause), and/or elite athleticism.

4. Character Matters. In speaking to a couple of scouts, some of the things they shared was that many began to focus on the “whys & hows” of a player. As example what was shared w/ me:
-Why is a highly rated player transferring so much?
-Why is a highly rated player not producing or developing as they mature?
-How many self inflicted penalties or turnovers were caused killing or extending drives in pivotal moments? (Mental Fortitude)
-How does the coaching staff view them, both past & present if they are a transfer?
-How do their teammates view them?
-How many lapse in judgment take place while on the field? (IQ)
-Are there character issues that present themselves in game, during timeouts, etc?

5. Coaching Matters. Again, in speaking to a couple of scouts, I was floored at how many kids come in ill prepared, & certain coaches have better reputations at having kids NFL ready from a physical & mental standpoint than others.

For instance, I was told if a 3* kid play for Coach A, & a 5* kid play for Coach B, they will almost always go w the non-Blue Chip kid b/c of the program they come from, & trust their developmental process. (Although I was told sometimes they still look at HS ratings + college game film, to gage if a kid can be coached up based upon potential)

Why do I say all of this? Well, here’s the honest truth; we have a perception problem. The other sad truth is this simple: The “mopes” tend to be more in tune to CFB, as a whole, vs. being strict fanatics of Miami. Therefore, when they say “Player A will be lucky to be drafted or Player A is not a 1st rounder”, history has shown it’s usually not shade as opposed to looking at everything in totality, & objectively.

Here’s something else that’s going to sting, & I mean no offense, just talking in reality:

Mario is currently underperforming his predecessors after 2 yrs both record wise & via draft (& this includes inherited players & transfers)

However there is good news? This can all be a thing of the past IF we have an expected good 3rd yr. Literally, we have the power to change the narrative moving forward. Hopefully, this will be our last embarrassing draft, & we can go back to being NFLU vs. 7th Rd/UDFAU.
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Outstanding post w/receipts... Thank you for the work, Sir.
Like you, I'm hoping the 7th Rd/UDFAU culture of going thru the motions is becoming a thing of the past. We shall see. GO CANES
 
All fair. But I would offer a few points.

Sure we should compare ourselves to FSU both as an on-field rival and recruiting rival. But let's also evaluate where the programs are on the re-building timeline. After two seasons at FSU, Norvell was 8-13 and he was regularly being clowned on this site as a loser. They only had ONE draft pick in 2020, and 4 in 2021. It wasn't until year 3 when he went 10-3 that he showed any life at all. It remains to be seen but there is a general feeling that we are on a similar upswing for this year. Clearly, this is the year that we need to improve.

If we are measuring ourselves against FSU, there is one place that they excelled that has been a challenge for us. Yes they had 10 draftees this year. But they had 1 in 2022 and 1 in 2023. A bunch of the guys that got drafted this year would have been eligible in those earlier years. They stuck around and were the core of a team that got much better. So part of their numbers in this year's draft is just a carry-over from holding onto guys longer. But clearly they have a cultural element that is working to hold onto those guys. If Travis, Verse and others had left last year, the entire scenario looks different for them. That is an underappreciated element in a modern game that lacks continuity from year to year..

My second point is that Mario basically told us that the talent here was **** when he arrived. And he certainly implied heavily that the work ethic was not great as well. Most people here thought he had an immediate impact in upgrading talent although many of the early potential "upgrades" have not worked out for a variety of reasons discussed at length elsewhere. That is not directly relevant to the question here since none of Mario's recruits would even be draft eligible yet. But it is relevant in that all of these kids that went low in the draft were front line players for us. Which tells me that the bench is not as strong as we thought it was either. We won't be a front line contender until we have a talent pool that challenges the people who aren't really as good as their incoming reputation. On a good team, guys like Taylor and WIlliams would have lost playing time and ultimately left or get a reduced role. We have not had that luxury but I think we are getting there at some positions. Again this year will be a big measuring stick
 
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