I just believe that there has been some degree of horse trading going on between FOX / ESPN intermingling realignment and CFP.
Why would you cement yourself in a conference with permanently lower payouts when you can get into the P2? The BIG at a 20% share is infinitely better than the Big 12 at full. Also if you’re so risk averse that you choose to basically kill yourself, what’s the point.Thats my hope, but I think you are vastly underestimating the strength of Disney's position. They have barely lifted a finger so far in the litigation besides accusing FSU of committing a felony for trying to publish trade secrets, probably because they know the purpose of the lawsuits is to get the acc to settle.
You have competing lawsuits in different states, my guess is they end up with exactly opposite results, then it goes to more litigation. All parties know this, so I expect a settlement soon. FSU + Clemson go to the SEC. That ends the chance of getting out of the acc via a court declaring the GOR void.
So then we try to go to dissolution, but with FSU and Clemson out, it will be tough to get a majority. The worst case scenario is if UNC and NC St get invites to the SEC as well, and espn pays their way like it did for Texas/Oklahoma . We can't block the move. And if the Carolina schools leave, we have no shot at dissolving the conference.
At that point our only hope is that espn declines to pick up the option and then that ends the GOR, and we can walk.
But what happens if the majority of the remaining teams ( plus some possible new additions) tell ESPN "We'll agree to take a haircut if you extend the deal." We don't have the votes to block it. Again, we are putting our fate in the hands of the other acc teams. I don't like sitting back and hope others with different interests solve our problems.
The B1G is the grand prize, but so many things have to fall in line for that to happen that it's like putting all your life savings into lottery tickets. If you are managing risk, then you have to ask, is it better to push espn to let us join the big 12 now with full shares , or do we stay in the acc and put our life savings in a lottery ticket- hoping that espn doesn't pick up the option, other acc teams don't make a deal behind our backs locking us into the acc, and the B1G extends an invitation with full shares? Everyone has a different tolerance for risk. Mine just happens to be very low.
Legally? Come on, everything has been discussed by FOX and ESPN as part of the CFP negotiations. Also, going forward, I believe you have to look at the "ACC Bylaws" as almost fictional documents that neither FSU or Clemson will pay much attention to since a). The ACC has had NO issue acting on multiple occasions as thought the bylaws didn't exist b). The schools were ruled NOT to have any fiduciary responsibility to the conference or members.You legally can’t do that dude in the way you’re implying.
I believe FSU +Clemson to SEC will drive Fox + Big10 to Miami + UNC + UCF from a flanking perspective.If FSU leaves, is our only hope for B10 a dance PARTNER with ND? We aren’t worthy on our OWN?
Every time I look I hope there is an official statement that we are joining the B1G in 2026….
UCF included to counter the SEC’s 2 FL teams?I believe FSU +Clemson to SEC will drive Fox + Big10 to Miami + UNC + UCF from a flanking perspective.
Just my $.02.
The BIG at a 20% share is infinitely better than the Big 12 at full.
It's about presence...not teams mano y mano...UCF included to counter the SEC’s 2 FL teams?
That is a $100MM/yr question isn't it?SIAP
Thoughts on B1G only sticking to AAU schools?? With movement to P2 is that out the window now?
What if ESPN and Fox can't pay SEC and Big10 teams the payouts because the ad dollars just aren't there????How do you figure? The Big 12 deal is only for six years and ends in 2031. It pays out approximately 50 million per school, not including CFP money. If the B1G is paying out 100 million per year (it's doesn't get north of 90 million until 2028 but I'll round up in your favor) and offers UM 20% shares for four years then 100% shares for the following two, you think giving up more than $100+ million in revenue and being able to move conferences in 2031 if we don't like the Big 12's new contract offer is the better option?
You must be including non monetary factors, because at 20% share in the B1G, UM would be losing a massive amount of money compared to if we had joined the Big 12 at full shares.
Are you valuing something non tangible like "conference prestige" as being worth 20-30 million per year in your math ?
...the ACC wins in court?
...FSU and Clemson end up with no invites?
...the 2024 schedules get cancelations?
...neither the Big or SEC want more teams?
...our recent history leaves us off anyone's desirable list? ( we have been insignificant for 20 plus years).
Personally I don't like what is happening to college football. Oklahoma and Nebraska started this fiasco and now butt hurt fsu is expanding it. I am happy with being in the ACC for all our sports. If you boil it down the bottom line is not the fan, not the students, but just about the MONEY! Face it, no matter if it is SEC or B1G we will be the smaller fish in a B1G pond (or SEC pond)!
What if ESPN and Fox can't pay SEC and Big10 teams the payouts because the ad dollars just aren't there????
You take the short term revenue loss for the long term gain. The Big 12 is a death sentence for Miami football. By the time you could hypothetically move you’re nearly six years behind other peer P2 teams. Also, bold to think the Big or SEC will want to expand with the next contract. You get in as soon as you can. Conference prestige and access to the playoff absolutely matters. Again, the Big 12 would be a death sentence. There’s no way around it. You can’t say join the equivalent of Tier 2 CFB and hope you get picked up nearly six years later. You do whatever you need to get in asap.How do you figure? The Big 12 deal is only for six years and ends in 2031. It pays out approximately 50 million per school, not including CFP money. If the B1G is paying out 100 million per year (it's doesn't get north of 90 million until 2028 but I'll round up in your favor) and offers UM 20% shares for four years then 100% shares for the following two, you think giving up more than $100+ million in revenue and being able to move conferences in 2031 if we don't like the Big 12's new contract offer is the better option?
You must be including non monetary factors, because at 20% share in the B1G, UM would be losing a massive amount of money compared to if we had joined the Big 12 at full shares.
Are you valuing something non tangible like "conference prestige" as being worth 20-30 million per year in your math ?
You were my muse for Porster 2....the ACC wins in court?
...FSU and Clemson end up with no invites?
...the 2024 schedules get cancelations?
...neither the Big or SEC want more teams?
...our recent history leaves us off anyone's desirable list? ( we have been insignificant for 20 plus years).
Personally I don't like what is happening to college football. Oklahoma and Nebraska started this fiasco and now butt hurt fsu is expanding it. I am happy with being in the ACC for all our sports. If you boil it down the bottom line is not the fan, not the students, but just about the MONEY! Face it, no matter if it is SEC or B1G we will be the smaller fish in a B1G pond (or SEC pond)!
Why would Miami willingly take tens of millions of dollars in revenue loss year to year compared to our biggest competitors, with the hope of being the equivalent of six years late to the party? You take the revenue loss now to get into the conference that’ll give you major long term gains.There is that as well. Cable TV is dying, but we keep looking at this as if Fox and ESPN have infinite money and will happily agree to proportionally increase the payouts to the SEC and Big 10. If the networks don't see new teams as being worth 100 million per year each in ad revenue (which is what is has to be to keep adding teams), will the conferences agree to get a haircut? Its one thing to say the B1G loves UM, it's other to say Fox Sports sees UM as being worth 100 million in ad revenue. They aren't the same thing.
I think it's more realistic that ESPN/Fox would agree to paying an extra $50 million per year for UM in the Big 12 than that either network would pay $100 million for UM to go to the P2. It's still a huge risk on their part - everyone says "just wait til we start winning and our TV ratings will go through the roof." We have been saying that for 20 years now. I have my doubts that the networks will be eager to invest 600-700 million on UM (assuming full shares in the P2 for 6-7 years) based on the hope that Mario Cristobal is the real deal. And before I get accused of being a troll, I'm not saying Cristobal is doomed to failure, I'm saying that businesses don't usually make half billion dollar decisions lightly.