My prediction
I expect the P2s to each take 2 teams.
FSU and ND to B1G
Clemson and UNC to SEC
The negotiatied buyout will be about 350 million. Between the 3 departing acc teams, that adds up to a little over a billion to be distributed to the remaining acc teams.
Now let's assume the conference change happens in 2025.
With those other schools gone and the new acc teams coming in for 30% (Stanford, Cal) or free (SMU) for seven years, that means the payout per school goes way up.
When you add in the billion extra and the discounted distribution for the new acc teams, the expected payout per year for the original 11 acc teams will be about 72-75 million per year
(Note that this article says 66 million per team , but thats
equally distributed among 15 teams, they aren't factoring in the lower amounts to the new teams for the first 7 years)
https://www.tomahawknation.com/2024...realignment-motion-to-dismiss-gor-leon-county
But wait, there's more. The acc agreed to have performance based revenue, so its possible that the top teams get in the 80+ million per year range.
So through 2027, the top ACC teams could make considerably more than their P2 counterparts.
In 2027, espn has the option to pick up the contract through 2036. With pretty much only UM having any name recognition in the acc and possibly making 80 million per year, espn is dropkick the acc out the door. That means GOR is over. P2 will do another round of expansion and UM gets picked up by the B1G.
And to be honest, if it works out this way, then I have to tip my hat to Rad for playing 4D chess and outsmarting me and everyone else. The top teams in the acc (my guess is UM, Pitt, VT will be the top teams) potentially get 20-30 million more than the top teams in the SEC or B1G (for a couple years at least) , the new 5+7 playoff format means that the relative weakness of the acc doesn't really matter, and we end up in the B1G only 3 years after the trio of teams left, except we didn't have to pay 350 million to get out early like FSU, UNC and Clemson. Well played Rad, well played.