MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

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The deal is done, the race is run. Announcements will come at another time.
At the risk of having my own questionable reading comprehension issues....just so I'm clear on this... when you write, "The Deal is done", does that mean, "It's so obvious what is going to happen, you just have to read the tea leaves" or do you mean, "Rad and UM leadership have been on the phone with the B10 leadership and they are finalizing actual details and terms"....?
 
He said pusillanimous 😂


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All the talk about schools joining B1G/SEC...

And I'm just wondering when the talk about some of the CURRENT B1G/SEC (honestly mostly B1G) schools getting distribution cuts in order to remain in the conferences start....

Honestly if you want to make the BEST model, it's waiting for B1G and SEC deals to end, then the top 40-44 programs breaking off from the NCAA and doing their own thing. And the rest of the College Sports can go back to the real regionality of conferences.

There is just no world where Rutgers should be B1G and not like Miami. ****... why not Duke over Rutgers if this current all-sports way is run... The reality is just the top 40-44 teams splitting off for CFB and then getting a NCAA reset back to how it was from like pre PAC12 collapse for the rest of athletics would be best imo.
 
This just in...

The phones in athletic departments across the country have reportedly been ringing nonstop, with insiders claiming a seismic shift in the college football landscape may be underway. At the center of what some are already calling “the most aggressive conference battle in modern sports history” sits an unlikely prize: the University of Miami and Notre Dame.

According to anonymous sources “close to the situation,” both the Big Ten and the SEC have entered into what appears to be a high-stakes bidding war, each attempting to lure the two historic programs into their already sprawling conferences. While neither conference has officially confirmed negotiations, whispers of private jets, late-night meetings, and “unprecedented financial packages” have fueled speculation that the power structure of college football could soon be rewritten.

The Big Ten, already stretching from coast to coast, is said to be pitching Miami and Notre Dame as the final pieces in a truly national footprint. Executives are rumored to be emphasizing academic prestige, media reach, and the potential for lucrative television deals that would “change the economics of college athletics forever.” One unnamed consultant reportedly described the pitch as “less of an invitation and more of a corporate merger.”

Meanwhile, the SEC is allegedly taking a different approach, leaning into its reputation as the most dominant football conference in the country. Sources claim that SEC officials have framed the move as a chance for Miami and Notre Dame to “prove themselves weekly against the best of the best,” with the added incentive of record-setting revenue distributions. Some insiders suggest that the SEC’s strategy includes promising marquee rivalry games that would “redefine Saturday television.”

Perhaps most intriguing is Notre Dame’s position. Long known for its independence, the school has historically resisted joining a conference in football. Yet reports indicate that administrators may be reconsidering, citing the rapidly changing financial landscape and the pressure to remain competitive in an era of mega-conferences. Miami, for its part, is said to be weighing the cultural fit of each conference against the promise of increased exposure and resources.

Critics of the potential expansion warn that such a move could further widen the gap between power programs and the rest of college football, effectively creating a “super league” that leaves smaller conferences behind. Supporters, however, argue that the evolution is inevitable, driven by media rights deals and the insatiable demand for high-profile matchups.

For now, both Miami and Notre Dame have remained publicly silent, issuing only brief statements about “evaluating all options” and “focusing on current commitments.” But if the rumors are to be believed, decisions could come sooner rather than later, setting off a domino effect that might reshape the sport for decades to come.

As one anonymous executive put it, “This isn’t just about two schools. It’s about who controls the future of college football.”





... from an AI prompt.
 
All the talk about schools joining B1G/SEC...

And I'm just wondering when the talk about some of the CURRENT B1G/SEC (honestly mostly B1G) schools getting distribution cuts in order to remain in the conferences start....

Honestly if you want to make the BEST model, it's waiting for B1G and SEC deals to end, then the top 40-44 programs breaking off from the NCAA and doing their own thing. And the rest of the College Sports can go back to the real regionality of conferences.

There is just no world where Rutgers should be B1G and not like Miami. ****... why not Duke over Rutgers if this current all-sports way is run... The reality is just the top 40-44 teams splitting off for CFB and then getting a NCAA reset back to how it was from like pre PAC12 collapse for the rest of athletics would be best imo.
Rutgers was brought in as prerequisite to get their rival Maryland, and by getting both of them at once, the B1G accomplished their goal of getting into the east coast tv markets. Maryland got more money it needed.

They had just brought in Nebraska a few years prior and expanding their footprint in the DMV and tri-state markets were the way to go to expand the revenue pie.

If schools were to go at it themselves, outside of their conferences, we’d see more ND scenarios rather than a unified front of revenue sharing like how the NFL does it. The numbers between programs — from a viewership standpoint — are too disparate.

We’ve already been through this with the Longhorn network; Texas and OU almost going to the PAC12—only for them to actually bolt for the SEC. The pac12 not acquiring Texas & OU is what caused it to implode.




To be national, is the point…They don’t want regionality. There is no reset inbound; ever. The realignment that happened at the beginning of the 20s was just a delay to what had been set in motion & brewing throughout the 10s. The schools that changed conferences just weren’t marquee enough for it to feel so monumental.

And if we want to really stretch the history out, & get to the origins, we have to go to the Supreme Court case involving UGA and OU in the 80s.
 
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Rutgers was brought in as prerequisite to get their rival Maryland, and by getting both of them at once, the B1G accomplished their goal of getting into the east coast tv markets. Maryland got more money it needed.

They had just brought in Nebraska a few years prior and expanding their footprint in the DMV and tri-state markets were the way to go to expand the revenue pie.

If schools were to go at it themselves, outside of their conferences, we’d see more ND scenarios rather than a unified front of revenue sharing like how the NFL does it. The numbers between programs — from a viewership standpoint — are too disparate.

We’ve already been through this with the Longhorn network; Texas and OU almost going to the PAC12—only for them to actually bolt for the SEC. The pac12 not acquiring Texas & OU is what caused it to implode.




To be national, is the point…They don’t want regionality. There is no reset inbound; ever.

Which is why I started by saying some current B1G schools get distribution cuts. The fact that they bring a more national footprint isn't worth the same distribution still. Talk about New Jersey market, but it's still the big dawgs that are truly driving those views.

Rutgers can remain in B1G, but on the renegotiation there should be a two tier payout structure. The teams getting 100% distributions, and teams getting like 70-80% distributions. Maryland, Rutgers, Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota... **** if/when they expand to the Bay area or other ACC programs like Stanford, Cal, Duke, VTech, Pitt, Cal. Those are all non full-payout schools. I mean **** you can make it results based if you want to accomplish that...

Miami, Notre Dame, FSU, Clemson, GTech are the biggest 5 media draws pretty sure in the ACC. Let the SEC have UNC+UVA... FSU+Clemson are prob better SEC fits though. For B12 it'd be TTU, TCU, Iowa St, Colorado, then BYU/UTah. All like 10 of those schools are above Minnesota, Maryland, Rutgers, Northwestern though...

B1Gs top target should be Notre Dame and Miami at the top. Then Georgia Tech.
 
Which is why I started by saying some current B1G schools get distribution cuts. The fact that they bring a more national footprint isn't worth the same distribution still. Talk about New Jersey market, but it's still the big dawgs that are truly driving those views.

Rutgers can remain in B1G, but on the renegotiation there should be a two tier payout structure. The teams getting 100% distributions, and teams getting like 70-80% distributions. Maryland, Rutgers, Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota... **** if/when they expand to the Bay area or other ACC programs like Stanford, Cal, Duke, VTech, Pitt, Cal. Those are all non full-payout schools. I mean **** you can make it results based if you want to accomplish that...

Miami, Notre Dame, FSU, Clemson, GTech are the biggest 5 media draws pretty sure in the ACC. Let the SEC have UNC+UVA... FSU+Clemson are prob better SEC fits though. For B12 it'd be TTU, TCU, Iowa St, Colorado, then BYU/UTah. All like 10 of those schools are above Minnesota, Maryland, Rutgers, Northwestern though...

B1Gs top target should be Notre Dame and Miami at the top. Then Georgia Tech.
Notre Dame is never joining the B1G because they’d have to relinquish their NBC deal. Don’t really see that changing in the near future. Michigan and USC just rejected private equity cash infusions recently despite them being on elevated financials compared to the rest of the league; because those two schools rejected it; the whole league couldn’t go forward with it.

It wasn’t that long ago FSU and Clemson were knocking on the B1G’s and SEC’s doors only to get rejected by both of them.

Those 5 you listed, and ND isn’t even in our conference, are not the top 5 draws. UNC is the top school both the B1G and SEC would want. Then the next phase is would UNC be content with leaving the Duke football and basketball games off their schedule and up to chance? I’d say no. I can’t see Duke joining the SEC, ever. I could see them in the B1G tho. UVA is additionally a top draw for both conferences.

UNC is in a similar position as UT. It didn’t make sense for UT to go to the B1G because those schools aren’t football powerhouses like UT, and OU doesn’t fit them academically. However, with the SEC, Texas was able to get a rivalry back on the schedule in A&M while keeping their OU pairing. The SEC is both a regional fit i.e. all their states border one another, cultural fit, and national brand of football.

When Texas first tried to join the pac12, they tried to take TT with them so they can keep an in-state rivalry. They had two in the big12 before A&M left.

Right now, UNC has Duke, NC State, and Wake Forest all rivalries within their state, then they border Georgia for Georgia Tech, Clemson & South Carolina plus Virginia and Virginia Tech. Why in the world would they wanna ***** up that solar system where they get to be the sun of the ACC?

Oregon and Washington were easy adds and freebies but they didn’t really expand the pie like USC & UCLA did. That’s why they stopped and didn’t take Cal & Stanford even though they were better cultural and academic fits; and in a bigger market than Washington and Oregon.

Unlike USC and UCLA, Oregon and Washington will not enter the Big Ten with full revenue shares. Sources told ESPN that both schools will receive approximately $30 million annually when they join the league, a share that will increase by $1 million during the current media contract with Fox, NBC and CBS, which runs through the 2029-30 athletic season. They then would be able to receive full shares. The other Big Ten members are expected to receive more than $60 million annually from the new agreement this year, an amount that will increase over the life of the deal.

At the end of the day, id be hard pressed to see UF wanting FSU in the SEC and likewise with South Carolina & Clemson. So that stops their best fit. With the big ten, different members will have different interests. Penn state would probably want Pittsburgh on their schedule again but i doubt the others care.

They just aren’t going to expand anytime soon imo; that would just make everything harder. They can’t even agree on expanding the playoff and/or eliminating conference championship games yet—they keep pushing back the deadline.

The LA schools didn’t even want Oregon/Washington.

Anyways, for a lot of more reasons the musical chairs has come and gone. I think if FSU + Clemson are willing to leave the ACC for the XII down the line, then things get interesting.. but i don’t think they will. The other b1g and sec admin don’t wanna harm their own standing just to balloon the conference.

“We had this list of schools and went through it with the chancellors and presidents,” said a conference official who wished to remain anonymous. “Kevin wanted them [Oregon and Washington] to come in with USC and UCLA, but for whatever reason, the L.A. schools didn’t want to create a West Coast pod. He wasn’t able to convince them.”

 
At the risk of having my own questionable reading comprehension issues....just so I'm clear on this... when you write, "The Deal is done", does that mean, "It's so obvious what is going to happen, you just have to read the tea leaves" or do you mean, "Rad and UM leadership have been on the phone with the B10 leadership and they are finalizing actual details and terms"....?
Exactly.
 
Notre Dame is never joining the B1G because they’d have to relinquish their NBC deal. Don’t really see that changing in the near future. Michigan and USC just rejected private equity cash infusions recently despite them being on elevated financials compared to the rest of the league; because those two schools rejected it; the whole league couldn’t go forward with it.

It wasn’t that long ago FSU and Clemson were knocking on the B1G’s and SEC’s doors only to get rejected by both of them.

Those 5 you listed, and ND isn’t even in our conference, are not the top 5 draws. UNC is the top school both the B1G and SEC would want. Then the next phase is would UNC be content with leaving the Duke football and basketball games off their schedule and up to chance? I’d say no. I can’t see Duke joining the SEC, ever. I could see them in the B1G tho. UVA is additionally a top draw for both conferences.

UNC is in a similar position as UT. It didn’t make sense for UT to go to the B1G because those schools aren’t football powerhouses like UT, and OU doesn’t fit them academically. However, with the SEC, Texas was able to get a rivalry back on the schedule in A&M while keeping their OU pairing. The SEC is both a regional fit i.e. all their states border one another, cultural fit, and national brand of football.

When Texas first tried to join the pac12, they tried to take TT with them so they can keep an in-state rivalry. They had two in the big12 before A&M left.

Right now, UNC has Duke, NC State, and Wake Forest all rivalries within their state, then they border Georgia for Georgia Tech, Clemson & South Carolina plus Virginia and Virginia Tech. Why in the world would they wanna ***** up that solar system where they get to be the sun of the ACC?

Oregon and Washington were easy adds and freebies but they didn’t really expand the pie like USC & UCLA did. That’s why they stopped and didn’t take Cal & Stanford even though they were better cultural and academic fits; and in a bigger market than Washington and Oregon.



At the end of the day, id be hard pressed to see UF wanting FSU in the SEC and likewise with South Carolina & Clemson. So that stops their best fit. With the big ten, different members will have different interests. Penn state would probably want Pittsburgh on their schedule again but i doubt the others care.

They just aren’t going to expand anytime soon imo; that would just make everything harder. They can’t even agree on expanding the playoff and/or eliminating conference championship games yet—they keep pushing back the deadline.

The LA schools didn’t even want Oregon/Washington.

Anyways, for a lot of more reasons the musical chairs has come and gone. I think if FSU + Clemson are willing to leave the ACC for the XII down the line, then things get interesting.. but i don’t think they will. The other b1g and sec admin don’t wanna harm their own standing just to balloon the conference.



While I understand why UNC and UVA together are as big/bigger draws for conference realignment, they in fact do not get better football ratings than any of the 5 programs I mentioned. Could add Louisville to that list too tbh they actually usually get good ratings. Nor would adding those two (along with Miami and ND in some idealized B1G fantasy) be worth all that much in value compared to the SEC.

UNC and UVA are and should be far more valuable to the SEC than to the B1G. Especially UVA which honestly provides very little value itself. UNC is the big "prize" so to speak for both conferences; That I agree on. But it means a lot more to the SEC than it should B1G. Its like why does nobody care about Syracuse for the New York market or Cal/Stanford for the Bay Area market.... that's the same reason nobody especially the B1G should care about UVA tbh. There is literally zero universe UVA is a better add than FSU for the SEC imo. The B1G I just don't think FSU fits tbh same with clemson. But UVA is so overrated as a value its stupid. yeah yeah yeah new market and all that, but they don't actually get ratings

So Maybe ND wont join the B1G for now. I think they could eventually though. If the ACC gets raided the B1G can force their hand far stronger than the ACC ever could. Say the SEC lands UNC, UVA, FSU, and Clemson... which seems reasonable.
While AT LEAST Miami goes to B1G. And we can say GTech joins one of SEC/B1G too since they should absolutely be in the P2 imo. Okay then you have whats left ofthe ACC after I'd bet at least SMU and Louisville leave for the B12. So maybe ND sticks around with the remnants of the ACC to be their little mini-IVY conference that is mostly average at sports. Sure thats possible. But ND isn't going to make a contract with the SEC. Then you consider basically All their historic rivals would be in the B1G aside from like Stanford and Pitt. Okay so then the B1G tells ND, no scheduling our school, unless you join fully.
 
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