I just posted in the realignment thread why joining the B12 over the B10 is horribly short sighted. If you don't get into the P2/B10, your program is effectively doomed to perpetual second tier status. The lure of more short term B12 money is fools gold (assuming it is even true). The B10 may stop adding schools and you'll be in a world of hurt.
There's no guarantee that a power 2 is going to form and if it does, I would bet that schools not already in the power 2 will get less money for some time frame.
The Big 12 will b a death blow to Miami. We are at at critical point. So much money has been invested to bring the program up to a national level. We are on the brink of competing nationally. An opportunity exists for the brand to explode. A move to the Big 12 would at minimum stagnate the brand. FSU and UF would have an upper hand in recruiting.
Taking more money from Big 12 is short sided. Joining the B1G elevates the brand. It will also put more butts in Hard Rock and could charge more money for home games. They could easily add another $5M-$6M in ticket revenue.
I'm going to be blunt. The reason why Miami isn't being offered a full share from the B1G is that our tv viewership for the past 3 years has been terrible in terms of B1G viewership. Miami's tv viewership ranks 16th in the B1G. With the 10 win season we are expecting, perhaps viewership could rebound to a level at least middle of the B1G. Part of the issue is playing in the ACC. The other part is that we haven't been winning and relegated to the ACC channel for games. This is why we SHOULD NOT join the Big 12. It doesn't move the needle for tv viewership. To add 6 years of Big 12 tv mediocrity to the resume would be a killer.
Miami has an interesting contrast. It has the #3 brand in the B1G, but it hasn't translated into tv viewership. I believe that's because we had some bad seasons, but the high schools recruits are believing in Mario and the Miami brand. Again, this season is critical in turning that around.
I hope Rad gets us into the B1G even at 50% share which is what Oregon is getting. I would ask for a clause in the contract that as Miami's tv viewership increases, it's share increases as well. That would be a good compromise.
I'm concerned that the Administration will want to save face and not join the B1G for less than what FSU will get.
Check out this eye opening YouTube analysis,
"Does Miami fit in the B1G?" Pay close attention to 4:18 and 8:45. The videocast hosts believe Miami could take over the B1G if they joined. They are Utah fans and have no skin in the analysis.
