Will New York City become our Italy?

Salt

"It's All About The Roo"
Joined
Jan 2, 2015
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Well in fairness..one map from NY Times was from January when the virus was exclusively isolated in Wuhan..the other tweet you highlighted was from March referring the virus that is now global and not exclusively isolated in Wuhan. now let’s not ignore facts and make sure info shared is not incomplete lol
Man, even this virus is falling for the globalist agenda.
 

tcgrad1014

All-ACC
Joined
Nov 5, 2011
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10,959
Well that's pretty much a useless tweet.

20,875 positive cases. That's awesome. That means there have been approximately 200,000 Covid19 tests run in NY (based on the rough estimate of 10% of tests being positive). Soon there will be more Covid19 tests run for New Yorkers than have been run in all of Korea. And Korea is the gold standard for testing. Is anybody talking about that?

24% of all hospitalizations are in the ICU. That sounds bad. Ok. How many hospitalizations are there? If it's 20,875, we're on the verge of catastrophe. But it's not. It's probably closer to 3% of 20,875, or about 700 people. 25% of 700 is about 175 people in ICU.

Caveat: I suck at math. Somebody let me know if I'm doing it wrong.
 
Joined
Feb 7, 2013
Messages
17,405
Well that's pretty much a useless tweet.

20,875 positive cases. That's awesome. That means there have been approximately 200,000 Covid19 tests run in NY (based on the rough estimate of 10% of tests being positive). Soon there will be more Covid19 tests run for New Yorkers than have been run in all of Korea. And Korea is the gold standard for testing. Is anybody talking about that?

24% of all hospitalizations are in the ICU. That sounds bad. Ok. How many hospitalizations are there? If it's 20,875, we're on the verge of catastrophe. But it's not. It's probably closer to 3% of 20,875, or about 700 people. 25% of 700 is about 175 people in ICU.

Caveat: I suck at math. Somebody let me know if I'm doing it wrong.
24% number is meaningless unless you have the number of hospitalizations. In other words, 24% of what number?
 
Joined
Feb 7, 2013
Messages
17,405
Well that's pretty much a useless tweet.

20,875 positive cases. That's awesome. That means there have been approximately 200,000 Covid19 tests run in NY (based on the rough estimate of 10% of tests being positive). Soon there will be more Covid19 tests run for New Yorkers than have been run in all of Korea. And Korea is the gold standard for testing. Is anybody talking about that?

24% of all hospitalizations are in the ICU. That sounds bad. Ok. How many hospitalizations are there? If it's 20,875, we're on the verge of catastrophe. But it's not. It's probably closer to 3% of 20,875, or about 700 people. 25% of 700 is about 175 people in ICU.

Caveat: I suck at math. Somebody let me know if I'm doing it wrong.
Notice how he doesn’t tell you the number of coronavirus specific hospitalizations, in the hope that that 24% scares the shlt out of people. They see big positive test case numbers and start doing the math in their head using that as a basis. That’s just bad reporting.
 

tcgrad1014

All-ACC
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Notice how he doesn’t tell you the number of coronavirus specific hospitalizations, in the hope that that 24% scares the shlt out of people. They see big positive test case numbers and start doing the math in their head using that as a basis. That’s just bad reporting.
Severe cases are running at about 3% of total cases. That's where I pulled that number.
 
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Severe cases are running at about 3% of total cases. That's where I pulled that number.
And I see your logic, but he just posted 24% without any kind of perspective. At least you have an estimate that makes that 24% more meaningful. The 24% meant literally nothing in that tweet.

Also just curious, where did you see that severe cases are running 3% of total cases?
 

tcgrad1014

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And I see your logic, but he just posted 24% without any kind of perspective. At least you have an estimate that makes that 24% more meaningful. The 24% meant literally nothing in that tweet.

Also just curious, where did you see that severe cases are running 3% of total cases?
 
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Joined
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I ran your numbers, you’re exactly right. Well not exactly because it’s all estimating, but based on the assumptions like 3% which seem to be on sound footing, your numbers are correct. Maybe around 150 to 200 ICU in so far in NY. Give or take
 

423Hurricane

Recruit
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Feb 1, 2018
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Because NYC has 9 million people packed in like sardines, it’s a safe assumption that they would have more infections due to the sheer numbers involved. Additionally, testing is ramping up so it’s also safe to assume that the positives will spike due to the sheer numbers being tested.
 

Poptimus

Senior
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Nov 4, 2017
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People are still out and about as if nothing is wrong here. I live in Queens, one subway stop from Manhattan, and I went out tonight to get some food. People are sitting around on benches in the park with no enforcement from the cops. Clearly, they aren't doing anything "essential", just chilling and it was in groups. Lots of people out jogging and running, too. The mask wearing rate was maybe 33% of everyone I encountered.
 

TheMatador

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TheMatador

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Not unless Manhattan opens up some more good restaurants with exquisite northern Italian cuisine NY can't be our Italy. Pizzas and spaghetti in NYC's Little Italy not enough.
 

JD08

Evidence based and data driven
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Dec 19, 2014
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I posted on another thread that testing for some cases will not happen if the patient is well enough to go home and self quarantine. That will drop the number of positive cases and free up lab resources to get results for more urgent case even quicker.

So should the death rate rise or new cases level off, take it with a grain of salt.

That might change if/when a rapid test comes onto the market though, but that won't happen in the next week that I know of.
 
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