FL Cane
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I've taken a look at Dan Mullen's background and coaching history to give us a more in-depth idea of what our staff will be dealing with on 8/24. We all know something about him, but there are a few observations that I found to be interesting. ⚠Fair Warning, this is a long as **** post with a lot of information, but well worth the read if you want to really know about the guy we need to beat in Week 1. ⚠ This is literally the character limit for posts. Part 2 will cover future expectations/more observations.
All the info here has been compiled from online sources and my own calculations from raw data (Wikipedia links, SEC websites, etc.)
General Coaching Career and Background Prior to Mississippi State (1994 - 2008)
Mullen began his coaching career as a WR coach, with two year-long stints at FCS programs Wagner College (1994-1995) and Colombia University (1996-1997). In 1998, Mullen made the jump to FBS programs and became a Graduate Assistant at Syracuse University. From 1999-2000 he was a Graduate Assistant at Notre Dame, where he made a crucial career connection with then Notre Dame Wide Receivers Coach Urban Meyer. When Meyer took his first Head Coaching job at Bowling Green State University, Mullen joined him as the team's quarterbacks coach from 2001-2002. After Meyer accepted the Head Coaching job at the University of Utah the following season, Mullen again joined Meyer as his QB coach from 2003-2004. Finally, after Meyer accepted the Head Coaching job at the University of Florida following one season at Utah, Mullen joined him as the team's QB coach and Offensive Coordinator. From 2005 to 2008, Mullen was Florida's QB coach and OC as the team won two national championships and one Heisman Trophy by his QB. Prior to Florida's 2008 national championship victory, Mullen accepted the Head Coaching job at Mississippi State University, which had been one of the worst teams in the SEC for years.
It's hard to tell when looking at Mullen's early career, how much of his success is attributed to him and not the HC he was under. For one, he certainly gets credit for recruiting one of the greatest college football quarterbacks of all time, Tim Tebow, to the swamp. Mullen beat out some other major names in recruiting, like Jimbo Fisher and Lane Kiffin for Tebow. Mullen also coached some very good QB's in Alex Smith, Chris Leak, and Dak Prescot. Additionally, Mullen also had a huge hand in building Florida's fast-paced spread offense, which was almost unstoppable during his tenure. On the flipside, Mullen was coaching under Urban Meyer, who is one of the greatest College Football Head Coaches of all time. Meyer built each offense Mullen ever coached in, Bowling Green to Florida, and it's unclear how much play-calling responsibilities he had while at Florida. I wasn't able to find a definitive answer on his playcalling duties, so it'd be great if one of you could clarify if Mullen had full play-calling power during his tenure at Florida. Also, Urban Meyer has an extensive tree of former assistants who are currently or once were head coaches in FBS football. By far, Mullen has had the most successful career of any of the former Meyer assistants turned HC's.
Head Coach at Mississippi State University, On the Surface (2009 - 2017)
Prior to Florida's 2008 National Championship Game vs the Oklahoma Sooners, on December 10, 2008, Mullen was hired as Mississippi State University's 32nd Head Football Coach. Prior to Mullen's hiring at Mississippi State, the program was one of the consistently worse teams in the SEC. Under Head Coach Sylvester Croom, the team had consecutive 3-8 records during the 2004 & 2005 seasons, and a 3-9 record during the 2006 campaign. In 2007, the team went 8-5 and won the Liberty Bowl, but reverted back to a 4-8 losing record the following season. In all Mississippi State went 21-38 (.356) from 2004 to 2008, and an atrocious 96-113 (.459) from 1991-2008. The best season in those years was a 10-2 campaign in 1999 that saw the team win a Peach Bowl and get a final #12 ranking. Over the 17 years from 1991 to 2008, Mississippi State only went to 7 bowl games and won 3. Just to give you an idea of how historically bad Mississippi State is within the SEC, the team only has an overall all-time winning record against two SEC teams. SEC newcomer Texas A&M (7-5) and perennial SEC bottomfeeder Vanderbilt (13-7).
In all, Mullen inherited a program that hadn't done much of anything over the previous two decades and that only had one winning season from 2004-2008. For any coach of even the best caliber, this was a terrible situation. But out of terrible situations comes the potential for opportunity and Mullen Capitalized. From his career at Mississippi State from 2009 to 2017, Mullen compiled a 69-44 (.611) overall record (33-39 SEC record). Here's the breakdown of his season-by-season record, per Wikipedia (cross-checked with other sources to ensure accuracy).
As you can see, Mullen did exceptionally well at Mississippi State for their historical Standards. From 2009-2017, Mullen Averaged 7.6 wins and 4.8 losses a year. So, at Mississippi State, he was an average 8-5 coach. Considering the 5.6 wins and 6.6 losses they averaged from 1991-2008, this was a massive upgrade for their program. Mullen was arguably the greatest Head Coach that Mississippi State has ever had, but considering the program's poor historical record, while impressive on the surface it only shows that Mullen was able to exceed low historical expectations. By those same standards, Al Golden was one of the greatest coaches of all-time at Temple (albeit Temple was somehow worse in that time period than Mississippi State). Nevertheless, the record establishes that Mullen is an average coach at the least.
In-Depth Look at Mullen's Mississippi State & Florida Tenure
Overall, Mullen had a successful tenure at Mississippi State and did more than enough to earn the job upgrade he got with Florida. Nevertheless, though a successful tenure by Mississipi State standards, there are some major red flags in Mullen's record.
All the info here has been compiled from online sources and my own calculations from raw data (Wikipedia links, SEC websites, etc.)
General Coaching Career and Background Prior to Mississippi State (1994 - 2008)
Mullen began his coaching career as a WR coach, with two year-long stints at FCS programs Wagner College (1994-1995) and Colombia University (1996-1997). In 1998, Mullen made the jump to FBS programs and became a Graduate Assistant at Syracuse University. From 1999-2000 he was a Graduate Assistant at Notre Dame, where he made a crucial career connection with then Notre Dame Wide Receivers Coach Urban Meyer. When Meyer took his first Head Coaching job at Bowling Green State University, Mullen joined him as the team's quarterbacks coach from 2001-2002. After Meyer accepted the Head Coaching job at the University of Utah the following season, Mullen again joined Meyer as his QB coach from 2003-2004. Finally, after Meyer accepted the Head Coaching job at the University of Florida following one season at Utah, Mullen joined him as the team's QB coach and Offensive Coordinator. From 2005 to 2008, Mullen was Florida's QB coach and OC as the team won two national championships and one Heisman Trophy by his QB. Prior to Florida's 2008 national championship victory, Mullen accepted the Head Coaching job at Mississippi State University, which had been one of the worst teams in the SEC for years.
It's hard to tell when looking at Mullen's early career, how much of his success is attributed to him and not the HC he was under. For one, he certainly gets credit for recruiting one of the greatest college football quarterbacks of all time, Tim Tebow, to the swamp. Mullen beat out some other major names in recruiting, like Jimbo Fisher and Lane Kiffin for Tebow. Mullen also coached some very good QB's in Alex Smith, Chris Leak, and Dak Prescot. Additionally, Mullen also had a huge hand in building Florida's fast-paced spread offense, which was almost unstoppable during his tenure. On the flipside, Mullen was coaching under Urban Meyer, who is one of the greatest College Football Head Coaches of all time. Meyer built each offense Mullen ever coached in, Bowling Green to Florida, and it's unclear how much play-calling responsibilities he had while at Florida. I wasn't able to find a definitive answer on his playcalling duties, so it'd be great if one of you could clarify if Mullen had full play-calling power during his tenure at Florida. Also, Urban Meyer has an extensive tree of former assistants who are currently or once were head coaches in FBS football. By far, Mullen has had the most successful career of any of the former Meyer assistants turned HC's.
Head Coach at Mississippi State University, On the Surface (2009 - 2017)
Prior to Florida's 2008 National Championship Game vs the Oklahoma Sooners, on December 10, 2008, Mullen was hired as Mississippi State University's 32nd Head Football Coach. Prior to Mullen's hiring at Mississippi State, the program was one of the consistently worse teams in the SEC. Under Head Coach Sylvester Croom, the team had consecutive 3-8 records during the 2004 & 2005 seasons, and a 3-9 record during the 2006 campaign. In 2007, the team went 8-5 and won the Liberty Bowl, but reverted back to a 4-8 losing record the following season. In all Mississippi State went 21-38 (.356) from 2004 to 2008, and an atrocious 96-113 (.459) from 1991-2008. The best season in those years was a 10-2 campaign in 1999 that saw the team win a Peach Bowl and get a final #12 ranking. Over the 17 years from 1991 to 2008, Mississippi State only went to 7 bowl games and won 3. Just to give you an idea of how historically bad Mississippi State is within the SEC, the team only has an overall all-time winning record against two SEC teams. SEC newcomer Texas A&M (7-5) and perennial SEC bottomfeeder Vanderbilt (13-7).
In all, Mullen inherited a program that hadn't done much of anything over the previous two decades and that only had one winning season from 2004-2008. For any coach of even the best caliber, this was a terrible situation. But out of terrible situations comes the potential for opportunity and Mullen Capitalized. From his career at Mississippi State from 2009 to 2017, Mullen compiled a 69-44 (.611) overall record (33-39 SEC record). Here's the breakdown of his season-by-season record, per Wikipedia (cross-checked with other sources to ensure accuracy).
| Season | Team | Overall | Conference Record | Standing | Bowl/playoffs | Coaches Poll | AP Poll |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2009 | 5–7 | 3–5 | T–4th (Western) | ||||
2010 | 9–4 | 4–4 | 5th (Western) | W - Gator: 52-14 | 17 | 15 | |
2011 | 7–6 | 2–6 | 5th (Western) | W - Music City: 23-17 | |||
2012 | 8–5 | 4–4 | 4th (Western) | L - Gator: 20-34 | |||
2013 | 7–6 | 3–5 | T–5th (Western) | W - Liberty: 44-7 | |||
2014 | 10–3 | 6–2 | 2nd (Western) | L - Orange: 33-49 | 12 | 11 | |
2015 | 9–4 | 4–4 | T–5th (Western) | W - Belk: 51-28 | |||
2016 | 6–7 | 3–5 | T–5th (Western) | W - St. Pete: 17-16 | |||
2017 | 8–4 | 4–4 | T–4th (Western) | W- TaxSlayer*: 31-27 | 23 | 24 | |
Mississippi State: | 69–44 | 33–39 | * Mullen left for Florida before the bowl game. |
As you can see, Mullen did exceptionally well at Mississippi State for their historical Standards. From 2009-2017, Mullen Averaged 7.6 wins and 4.8 losses a year. So, at Mississippi State, he was an average 8-5 coach. Considering the 5.6 wins and 6.6 losses they averaged from 1991-2008, this was a massive upgrade for their program. Mullen was arguably the greatest Head Coach that Mississippi State has ever had, but considering the program's poor historical record, while impressive on the surface it only shows that Mullen was able to exceed low historical expectations. By those same standards, Al Golden was one of the greatest coaches of all-time at Temple (albeit Temple was somehow worse in that time period than Mississippi State). Nevertheless, the record establishes that Mullen is an average coach at the least.
In-Depth Look at Mullen's Mississippi State & Florida Tenure
Overall, Mullen had a successful tenure at Mississippi State and did more than enough to earn the job upgrade he got with Florida. Nevertheless, though a successful tenure by Mississipi State standards, there are some major red flags in Mullen's record.
- Despite being Urban Meyer's most successful protégé, Mullen has never had any great success in recruiting. All the major sites have different recruiting methodologies, but the information below is Mullen's recruiting rankings at Mississippi State from his first class in 2010 to his last full class in 2016. I'm not including the class that was signed after Mullen took Florida job.
Year | Rivals Recruiting Ranking | Ranking Change From Prior Year | SEC Recruiting Ranking | Average Stars |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2009 | 25 | ⬆+19 | 10 | 3.15 |
2010 | 38 | ⬇-13 | 9 | 2.92 |
2011 | 44 | ⬇-6 | 10 | 3.05 |
2012 | 30 | ⬆+14 | 10 | 3.04 |
2013 | 26 | ⬆+4 | 11 | 3.10 |
2014 | 37 | ⬇-11 | 13 | 2.79 |
2015 | 16 | ⬆+21 | 7 | 3.14 |
2016 | 34 | ⬇-18 | 12 | 3.14 |
Average | 31st | N/A | 10th | 3.04 |
Overall, you can see that Mullen was landing a 31st ranked recruiting class on average. For Mississippi State Standards, this was an upgrade over the past two decades, but couldn't move Mississippi state from the bottom rung of SEC recruiting. Interestingly, Mississippi state's in-state rival, Ole Miss, landed a better class 5 out of 8 years during Mullen's tenure. Even when Mississippi State went 9-4 in 2010, and Ole Miss went 4-8, Ole Miss still landed a recruiting class that was significantly better in 2011 (+25 spots higher in fact at #19 compared to Miss St. #44) Mississippi State's class finally beat out Ole Miss in 2012, after Ole Miss had gone 2-10. The next year though, despite being under a new head coach and having had a worse record than Mississippi State, Ole Miss had a significantly better-recruiting class.
In conclusion for this point, Mullen has never been anything close to an elite recruiter. Despite having a more established program with no NCAA violations, more consistent winning, no coaching turnover, and better facilities, Mullen was never able to consistently beat out his team's only in-state rival. Furthermore, in the scope of SEC recruiting, Mullen was never able to consistently break into the middle tier of teams.
Many People have blamed Mullen's lackluster recruiting history on a number of things. First, as a member of the SEC West, Mullen had to compete with SEC bluebloods Alabama, LSU, and Auburn year-to-year. Over his tenure, Mississipi State finished 5th in the SEC West Standings on average, only doing better than 4th once. Second, many people have also said Mullent reached Mississippi State's ceiling, and that consistent Top 25 classes were unrealistic. Nevertheless, since Mullen left Mississippi State two years ago, the team has landed two top 25 recruiting classes. In two consecutive years, Mississippi State Head Coach Joe Moorhead has landed as many top 25 recruiting classes as Mullen landed in 8 years. You can argue that Mullen built the foundation, but while he was there, he seldom did anything with it. Despite showing consistent progress with the program, Mullen was never able to consistently recruit good classes. This is a major red flag and cause for alarm, though to be fair, Gator fans have been complaining about this for a while.
Since being at Florida, Mullen has upped his recruiting game, with the 17th ranked recruiting class in 2018 and the 8th ranked class in 2019. I'm not a guy that follows recruiting a ton, but I do know reading the board that lots of you think their class is bloated and overrated. The 2019 class in particular, though being 8th, has had a lot of issues. Point blank, Mullen is an average recruiter at best. Gator fans may think that being an "average recruiter, but a great coach" will get them to the promised land and win (like countless articles and posts on their boards say). That belief though hasn't been the case for any coach in the past decade. Mullen's recruiting woes are a significant concern for their program.
- Mullen's all-time record versus top-25 teams is unimpressive on the surface, but that stat can be deceiving. Overall, he's the definition of an average coach. Mullen has coached 128 games in his career, of which 64 were against top-25 ranked opponents. In those 64 games, Mullen's all-time record is 16-48 (.250). 60 of those ranked matchups occurred while Mullen was at Mississippi State, while 4 were played last year at Florida. In looking at Mullen's record season-by-season what is apparent is how average his teams were. They were consistent in beating teams they shouldn't have lost to and consistent in losing to teams they shouldn't have beat. Over the course of his career, Mullen has been remarkably consistent in being average. Many of Mullen's ranked losses were against teams with double-digit wins and who were seldom beat.
In 2010, Mullen's second team went 9-4, upping their win total from the previous year's 5-7 season. The team lost four of its games to ranked opponents (all of whom went on to have double-digit win seasons and play in major bowl games) but had some very close calls with some bad teams. UAB (4-8), Kentucky (6-7), and Ole Miss (4-8) all came within one score of beating them. In 2011 Mullen's team regressed to a 7-6 record, but 4 out of the team's 5 losses were against ranked opponents who finished the season with double-digit win totals as well. Accordingly, in 2012, Mullen's team went 8-5, with 4 out of the team's 5 losses being against ranked opponents that finished the season with double-digit wins. This season is also the point where Mullen's first mind-boggling loss occurs, as his team got blown out in its rivalry game against a 4-8 Ole Miss team. From 2010 to 2012, Mullen had a pattern of winning the games he was supposed to and losing the games that his teams had little chance to win. Almost all of his losses during this period were against ranked double-digit win teams, while one or two were upsets.
In 2013, the pattern begins to change very slightly. During this season Mullen's team went 7-6, with 5 out of the team's 6 losses coming against ranked opponents that finished the season with double-digit win totals. Nevertheless, Mullen suffered a few close calls, with a 1 point win against Bowling Green (10-4 on the season but got blown out by 5-7 Indiana team and anyone with a pulse) along with a 6 point win against a 2-10 Kentucky team. Subsequently, in 2014, Mullen had his best season at Mississippi State, going 10-3 and holding the #1 rank in the country for a few weeks. While getting some wins against initially top-ten ranked LSU, Auburn, and Texas A&M, those teams ultimately went on to have disappointing 8-5 seasons. Mullen's team ultimately lost its top ranking in a close loss to Alabama, followed by upset blowouts to Ole Miss and Georgia Tech (in the Orange Bowl). In 2015, Mississippi State went 9-4, with the team losing all of its games to ranked opponents. As with previous seasons, the team won the games it shouldn't have lost and lost the games it shouldn't have won.
During the 2016 season, Mississippi State posted its second-worst record under Mullen, going 6-7. The loss of star QB Dak Prescott and some of his supporting staff hurt, with the season starting off with a 21-20 loss to FBS newcomer South Alabama. The season followed with losses to mostly average teams, and a few ranked ones, with one close call with FCS Samford. Finally, during his last season at Mississippi State, Mullen's coached the team to a respectable 8-4 record. As with his entire career, 3 out of the team's four losses were against double-digit winning ranked teams. The only WTF loss that the team had was a close home loss to a 6-6 Ole Miss team. For whatever reason, against his career pattern, Mullen's teams always seemed to have sh*t the bed against Ole Miss.
Overall, Mullen has been incredibly consistent in being average throughout his career. His Mississippi State teams capitalized on the 1-2 seasons where the SEC West was down but were relegated to mid-tier status most of the time. While Mullen was a good enough coach not to lose games to inferior or equal competition, he was not able to score many upsets or even get a marquee win in his 8 years at Mississippi State. Arguably, Mullen's best win in 8 years was in 2017 against #12 LSU, who finished the season 9-4 and ranked #18. Though Mullen beat top-ten teams in prior to his Florida tenure, all those teams ultimately ended those same seasons with 8-5 records. At Mississippi State, Mullen had only 1 win against a ranked team that finished the season with a record better than 8-5. In all, Mullen has historically been a good enough not lose to inferior or even competition. On the flip side, Mullen's team's haven't been able to exceed expectations or score upset wins. At Florida, his marquee win was certainly against then #5 LSU, who finished the season 10-3. Nevertheless, blowout losses to UGA and Mizzou, with close calls against South Carolina and Vandy call into question whether Mullen will continue to be average at Florida. A ranked win against Mississippi State ultimately meant little as the team went 8-5, and the Michigan blowout win occurred against the team that had thrown in the towel weeks before kickoff.
- Mullen's 6-2 bowl record looks impressive, but like the previous section, looks can be deceiving. Of Mullen's 6 career bowl wins, 4 were against teams with either a 6-6 or 7-5 record. Much of this was due to Mississippi State's 4th to 5th place finishes in the SEC West, which meant that Mullen's team got a lot of low-mid tier bowl matchups. In the 2 games where Mullen coached Mississippi State against 9+ win teams (10-3 GT and 9-3 Northwestern) with full rosters and P5 status, his teams were blasted and closed the margins with scores in garbage time. Florida had an impressive win against Michigan, but this was against a Michigan team with multiple starters sitting and a team which had thrown in the towel weeks before. It's similar to when Alabama got blasted by the Utah Utes in the 2009 Sugar Bowl.
In all, like his regular-season matchups, Mullen again shows a consistency for being an average coach. Of his 6 bowl wins, 4 were against 6-6/7-5 teams, while the other two wins were against one inferior G5 team (Rice) and a deflated Michigan team. The two bowl losses Mullen experienced occurred in blowout fashion and were against even or better teams. In all, this is another piece of evidence showing that Mullen will beat who he should, but cannot consistently overperform or pull off upset wins. If the team he's facing is even slightly better than his, he can't pull off the upset.
- Mullen has a 65-6 record when his team is winning at halftime, and a 10-40 record when losing. This isn't a really surprising stat, most coaches have losing records when down at the half. What's so surprising about Mullen's record though is how close those eventual losses are at the half. In the overwhelming majority of games that Mullen lost at Mississippi State, his team was either tied with or only down by one possession to his opponent. In the second half, Mullen's team's either collapsed or couldn't close a one-possession gap. Overall, this shows that Mullen is not good at making adjustments at the half. On 8/24, if we're either tied or leading at half, we have an excellent chance of winning this game, as Mullen hasn't ever been great at making adjustments. To Mullen's credit, his 2018 Florida team won three games last year when down at half. Though against inferior teams in Vandy, South Carolina, and Mississippi State, Mullen showed he could make adjustments and come back. Nevertheless, these were only one-possession games against inferior competition that eventually ran out of gas. I have yet to find a game where Mullen's team was down by two-possessions and came back to win.
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