Numbers are hard

For_The_U

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Are you lying or a fool? That article addresses the UK only and is based upon the enactment of a national mandatory criminally enforced stay home order in the UK. Which was what the initial model called for to mitigate the healthcare burden and associated deaths.
Absolutely correct, Amherst. But I don't believe they are standing behind the previous position that millions will die if these measures are not kept in place for upwards of a year until a vaccine is delivered (the initial conclusion). Correct me if I'm wrong on that. I think there is more to this revision than solely "current quarantine measures have dropped our projection from millions to not even 20k". Again, correct me if I'm wrong. I don't claim to be an expert.
 

AmherstCane

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Maybe. But even this idiot can easily diagnose you with a screaming case of entrenched douchebag with smartest man in the room syndrome.

You don’t have to be an MIT grad to see modifications to social distancing being implemented two days ago aren’t going to affect mortality on that kind of massive scale.

They were obviously wrong in their initial, grossly alarmist numbers.
There was literally a video posted about exponential growth showing that staying home now, or two days ago, DOES EXACTLY interrupt the exponential growth and reduces mortality by hundreds of thousands.

You have to understand exponential growth and a three day doubling curve to understand how this goes from 1 million infected to 16 million infected in 12 days.
 

AmherstCane

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Absolutely correct, Amherst. But I don't believe they are standing behind the previous position that millions will die if these measures are not kept in place for upwards of a year until a vaccine is delivered (the initial conclusion). Correct me if I'm wrong on that. I think there is more to this revision than solely "current quarantine measures have dropped our projection from millions to not even 20k". Again, correct me if I'm wrong. I don't claim to be an expert.
This is the ORIGINAL report. In the ORIGINAL report, they predict 10,000-40,000 deaths in the UK with a national closure and shelter in home order.

Now that the order has been issued, they are predicating 20,000 deaths. Exactly within the range predicted in the original report.

1585236312190.png

 
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blushrts

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Elderly friends and relatives need to stay home until there is a vaccine. Don’t shut down the entire country. Oh, and we aren’t Spain or Italy. We don’t have socialized health care either.
You're about to find out the "best health care system in the world" also has a limited number of ICU beds. For profit hospitals don't like to keep empty beds around. Don't have a heart attack, or crash your car either in the next few weeks.
 

JD08

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You're about to find out the "best health care system in the world" also has a limited number of ICU beds. For profit hospitals don't like to keep empty beds around. Don't have a heart attack, or crash your car either in the next few weeks.
Why exactly do you think that is?

Full disclosure: I might be setting you up.
 

Empirical Cane

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You're about to find out the "best health care system in the world" also has a limited number of ICU beds. For profit hospitals don't like to keep empty beds around. Don't have a heart attack, or crash your car either in the next few weeks.
Are you familiar with the concept of surge capacity?
 

Empirical Cane

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You're about to find out the "best health care system in the world" also has a limited number of ICU beds. For profit hospitals don't like to keep empty beds around. Don't have a heart attack, or crash your car either in the next few weeks.
We are actually about to find out how our nation will quickly stand up far more beds (regular and ICU) than the current crisis will demand.

Its ALREADY happened here in SoFL.
 

For_The_U

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This is the ORIGINAL report. In the ORIGINAL report, they predict 10,000-40,000 deaths in the UK with a national closure and shelter in home order.

Now that the order has been issued, they are predicating 20,000 deaths. Exactly within the range predicted in the original report.

View attachment 114225
Thank you for that post.
 

blushrts

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Why exactly do you think that is?

Full disclosure: I might be setting you up.
It costs money, just like it costs money for businesses to hold inventory. So we do just in time and are now scrambling
 

blushrts

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We are actually about to find out how our nation will quickly stand up far more beds (regular and ICU) than the current crisis will demand.

Its ALREADY happened here in SoFL.
So fly by the seat of your pants after something hits. Great way to do it.
 

JD08

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It costs money, just like it costs money for businesses to hold inventory. So we do just in time and are now scrambling
That's partially true and it does cost money to maintain empty rooms. One hospital I worked at had an entire floor that stayed empty about 9 months of the year.The planned on area growth that never came to fruition.. Believe it or not, hospitals, especially community non-profits, are having a hard time in this time of tighter reimbursements. All of the fixes that have supposedly been added legislatively, did little more than add to the amount of people in hospital administration working to meet regulatory requirements. Look up Meaningful Use/ Promoting Interoperability, because that's built into every medical bill. Maintaining empty space would only compound those problems.

I detailed this in another post, but you also have competing forces also getting involved.

Locally, we had a hospital system that wanted to expand and build a new hospital in Port St. Lucie. They bought the land and went to the county for approval for a 7 story building. Another hospital who would lose business to the new hospital objected showing their projections that there was not enough demand to justify a building that size. The county approved a 4 story building and said if they could show 95% capacity, they'd approve the additional 3 stories. Needless to say, they were at capacity shortly after opening and have since built the additional three floors.

The challenges are largely financial, but belt tightening because of legislation that has increased costs and lowered income have hurt the most.
 

thisu

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You're about to find out the "best health care system in the world" also has a limited number of ICU beds. For profit hospitals don't like to keep empty beds around. Don't have a heart attack, or crash your car either in the next few weeks.
I’m the furthest from scared, unlike many of you. For those of you who prefer socialized health care and are over 65, if we had been implementing that system now and you are infected, your government would have decided you were to die because you are too old to be worth it. Just think about it.
 

Empirical Cane

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So fly by the seat of your pants after something hits. Great way to do it.
I will say this...

For contingency response, always better to roll.in heavy and demobilize than get in the fight short-handed.

I'm calling the excuses right now from the hysterics crowd as numbers never materialize to their doom and gloom:

"we had to take it seriously"

"see the quarantine worked" (even as it gets severely curtailed)

"our heroes in healthcare saved us" (partially don't disagree at all)

"we needed the ventilators for stockpile anyways" (as tens of thousands GO UNUSED)

"but..but..but...so and so hospital was overrun and diverting patients" (a few hospitals don't make a "collapse" of our overall system)
 

AmherstCane

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Don’t worry, neither is Amherst. He thinks that getting an average score on the math portion of the SATs makes him a mathematical genius
hahaha. I got a 680 in 7th grade. Took it for the Duke TIP program. I just picked a number that represented a threshold below which you couldn’t begin to comprehend the math behind the analysis.
 
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hahaha. I got a 680 in 7th grade. Took it for the Duke TIP program. I just picked a number that represented a threshold below which you couldn’t begin to comprehend the math behind the analysis.
Seriously, you're bragging about a 680? And Duke’s super exclusive TIP program?

By the way in seventh grade, they’re called the PSATs

You're fūcking with me, right?
 

AmherstCane

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Seriously, you're bragging about a 680? And Duke’s super exclusive TIP program?

By the way in seventh grade, they’re called the PSATs

You're fūcking with me, right?
Like usual, you’re wrong. You take the SAT in 7th grade for the program. Not the PSAT.
Don’t be mad that I got a higher SAT score in 7th grade than you got in high school. And don’t worry, when I took it for real in high school I only missed one question - on the whole test. Still bitter to this day about that one question.

And the only reason that this matters is because people who can’t even do 2^5 in their head are endangering lives with ignorance-based epidemiology.
 
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