Numbers are hard

Poptimus

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Do you drive by a hospital? What are the people you converse with say. My sister had someone at work sent home for being sick on Monday and was also around someone who had been testedon Sunday and it came back Negative today. I had her kids over when it happened and she asked me to take them to their dads. How many stories like that are going around. I want to hear from the people.
I don’t have a car because you don’t need one here. People are cautious here, but there isn’t the panic you’d think if you just read Twitter and watched MSNBC. Many people are out walking their dogs. There is zero police presence by me so you see joggers clearly not on the way to an “essential” task. At the grocery store, all the cashiers wear gloves and some wear masks. I think now that people see the grocery stores remain open they hoard less than a week ago. It’s noticeable.

It’s still tough to score toilet paper and paper towels, but I bought other items with ease today that were all gone last week. I make it a point to go outside every day, but I know where few people walk by a courthouse that’s closed near me. I don’t think anyone walked within 10 feet of me, but I’m cautious.

Most folks I know are more scared of losing their jobs than contracting coronavirus. I know of 3 friends who are now unemployed here. I’m sure more simply haven’t told me. One friend told me the boss asked everyone on the team today for a list of what they’re working on for handover note purposes, when you’re on vacation. I told her, “you know what that handover note is really for, right?” It’s scary because you’re not landing another gig anytime soon if you’re laid off. So that’s the real fear here in NYC from what I have seen. Mind you, I’m 38 not 78.
 
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Take in the numbers while you can, but its only a matter of time before the WH moves to shut down or slow the reporting of them.

They've already asked some states to stop reporting the unemployment numbers. Theyll do the same w the deaths and total cases as the numbers rise. We just passed 1000 dead. Theres a day in the not too distant future when we'll see a day of 500 plus deaths.
 

Antcane

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I don’t have a car because you don’t need one here. People are cautious here, but there isn’t the panic you’d think if you just read Twitter and watched MSNBC. Many people are out walking their dogs. There is zero police presence by me so you see joggers clearly not on the way to an “essential” task. At the grocery store, all the cashiers wear gloves and some wear masks. I think now that people see the grocery stores remain open they hoard less than a week ago. It’s noticeable.

It’s still tough to score toilet paper and paper towels, but I bought other items with ease today that were all gone last week. I make it a point to go outside every day, but I know where few people walk by a courthouse that’s closed near me. I don’t think anyone walked within 10 feet of me, but I’m cautious.

Most folks I know are more scared of losing their jobs than contracting coronavirus. I know of 3 friends who are now unemployed here. I’m sure more simply haven’t told me. One friend told me the boss asked everyone on the team today for a list of what they’re working on for handover note purposes, when you’re on vacation. I told her, “you know what that handover note is really for, right?” It’s scary because you’re not landing another gig anytime soon if you’re laid off. So that’s the real fear here in NYC from what I have seen. Mind you, I’m 38 not 78.
Have you gotten a cold or felt like you were about to come down with a cold say back in January?
 

JD08

Evidence based and data driven
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Poptimus

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Have you gotten a cold or felt like you were about to come down with a cold say back in January?
No, I rarely get sick and the last time I was sick was the day after Thanksgiving. I feel fine and haven’t coughed in a long time.
 

Empirical Cane

We are what we repeatedly do.
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It’s quite entertaining to read on this board how the denominator for the mortality rate is so much higher because of the “hundreds of thousands” who are infected but not tested...
and at the same time read that COVID is not a big deal because 90% of those tested are negative.

It takes a special kind of stupid to not understand the inherent inconsistency of those positions.

It also takes a special kind of stupid to ignore Italy’s 8% case fatality rate and Spain’s 7% case fatality rate... while touting reported deaths from China as the most reliable metric.

Finally, it takes a special kind of stupid to not understand that this is a slow progressing disease where death occurs an average of 18-19 days after symptom onset. So as testing increases, new cases are found 7-10+ days before the deaths start to happen.

Finally, South Korea - which has lead the world in a testing based containment response - was lauded for a less than .6% death rate a week ago. South Korea’s case fatality rate - with the broadest testing program in the world - is now over 1% today.

Because there is no acquired immunity, and this virus is more transmissible than the flu (ask any credible epidemiologist - or Rand Paul), well over 100 million Americans would contract this without the deployment of extreme social distancing measures. Using a conservative 1% case fatality metric, 1 million people die. But as hospitalizations increase (the US has just over 1 million total available hospital beds - for the whole nation), the medical burden overwhelms the system which causes the death rate to go up. Which is what is happening in Italy and why their case fatality rate is over 8%.

You want your elderly friends and relatives to die? That’s on you. Just know that makes you a profoundly awful person
The irony with the title of your thread.
 

Empirical Cane

We are what we repeatedly do.
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This happens ALL the time. You would be surprised at how many time medical staffers say "if we don't do this or get this patients will DIE!". It's especially prevalent amongst the RN tribe. Surgeons too when they want a new toy.

The Administrators humor them, slow roll whatever the ask is, and lo and behold...

no one dies.

Now, that isn't to say they don't bring up legitimate issues, it is unfortunate that EVERY SINGLE item somehows gets wrapped into "patient safety" in an attempt to get their way.
 

tcgrad1014

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For our doofus OP. Educate yourself:


I like her calm, encouraging tone, but I think my substantive approach would have been different. Instead of pointing to the possibility that 50% infection rates are unlikely, I would point to the equally likely possibility that 50% infection rates may have already happened, and we haven't realized it because for the overwhelming majority, the symptoms are mild/moderate or none.

The Oxford study finds that half of England already has/had it with 1 in 1000 ultimately needing hospitalization (comparable to influenza hospitalization rate). The wsj op ed by the two Stanford MDs said that ultimately the mortality rate may well be comparable to influenza.

That's not to say we should do nothing, because those projections could turn out wrong (just like the Imperial College projections could turn out wrong...hopefully). But we need to be calm and be able to seriously start discussing when to restart life without being dismissed as a right wing heartless granny murderer.
 

JD08

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People are under the impression that hospitals report these numbers instantaneously and that's not necessarily the case.
 

tcgrad1014

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Here's a number that's not hard: to date well over 97.5% of positive cases of Covid19 in the U.S. have been mild/moderate. That's based on a positive test rate of about 10% nationally.

At this early stage of the testing ramp up, testing has pretty much been limited to celebrities, athletes, politicians, and (mostly) very sick people. The vast majority of those tested so far have been sick with something else that motivated them to get tested. The lower risk people (most Americans) have barely been tested yet.

I'm not a statistician, but the total number of people contracting Covid19 in the U.S. with mild/moderate or no symptoms has to be well over 99%. I'm optimistic that testing will continue exploding to the point that this becomes evident.
 

brcane1

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I like her calm, encouraging tone, but I think my substantive approach would have been different. Instead of pointing to the possibility that 50% infection rates are unlikely, I would point to the equally likely possibility that 50% infection rates may have already happened, and we haven't realized it because for the overwhelming majority, the symptoms are mild/moderate or none.

The Oxford study finds that half of England already has/had it with 1 in 1000 ultimately needing hospitalization (comparable to influenza hospitalization rate). The wsj op ed by the two Stanford MDs said that ultimately the mortality rate may well be comparable to influenza.

That's not to say we should do nothing, because those projections could turn out wrong (just like the Imperial College projections could turn out wrong...hopefully). But we need to be calm and be able to seriously start discussing when to restart life without being dismissed as a right wing heartless granny murderer.
That's not what that study says, like at all. It suggests that's possible while presenting how large the variance is in when you shift that serious illness rate between 10% and .1% and that we need much more testing on the immunity and infection side to know for sure. They've calibrated their model to accept that range of inputs quite acceptably though.
 

tcgrad1014

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That's not what that study says, like at all. It suggests that's possible while presenting how large the variance is in when you shift that serious illness rate between 10% and .1% and that we need much more testing on the immunity and infection side to know for sure. They've calibrated their model to accept that range of inputs quite acceptably though.
My subsequent post addresses the serious illness rate. It is not 10%. It is obviously much closer to >1%.
 

Go Canes!!

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You might be right, but >1% is still not great in that Oxford study, its the 0.1% run that everything is rosey.
Epidemiologist who predicted 3 million deaths in England and the US now says the number will be less than 20k.


 

Empirical Cane

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Epidemiologist who predicted 3 million deaths in England and the US now says the number will be less than 20k.


Funny how reason can win out over hysteria.

There won't be enough napkins to wipe egg of faces.

You know what's more tragic, the further loss of credibility next go round.
 

AmherstCane

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Epidemiologist who predicted 3 million deaths in England and the US now says the number will be less than 20k.


You understand that the model (and associated prediction of deaths and medical burden) changed because it accounted for the fact that the UK is now under a national, mandatory, criminally enforced shelter-in-place decree?
 
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