Numbers are hard

AmherstCane

Recruit
Joined
Oct 7, 2017
Messages
323
It’s quite entertaining to read on this board how the denominator for the mortality rate is so much higher because of the “hundreds of thousands” who are infected but not tested...
and at the same time read that COVID is not a big deal because 90% of those tested are negative.

It takes a special kind of stupid to not understand the inherent inconsistency of those positions.

It also takes a special kind of stupid to ignore Italy’s 8% case fatality rate and Spain’s 7% case fatality rate... while touting reported deaths from China as the most reliable metric.

Finally, it takes a special kind of stupid to not understand that this is a slow progressing disease where death occurs an average of 18-19 days after symptom onset. So as testing increases, new cases are found 7-10+ days before the deaths start to happen.

Finally, South Korea - which has lead the world in a testing based containment response - was lauded for a less than .6% death rate a week ago. South Korea’s case fatality rate - with the broadest testing program in the world - is now over 1% today.

Because there is no acquired immunity, and this virus is more transmissible than the flu (ask any credible epidemiologist - or Rand Paul), well over 100 million Americans would contract this without the deployment of extreme social distancing measures. Using a conservative 1% case fatality metric, 1 million people die. But as hospitalizations increase (the US has just over 1 million total available hospital beds - for the whole nation), the medical burden overwhelms the system which causes the death rate to go up. Which is what is happening in Italy and why their case fatality rate is over 8%.

You want your elderly friends and relatives to die? That’s on you. Just know that makes you a profoundly awful person
 

LuCane

Administrator
Staff member
Joined
Oct 21, 2011
Messages
13,009
It’s quite entertaining to read on this board how the denominator for the mortality rate is so much higher because of the “hundreds of thousands” who are infected but not tested...
and at the same time read that COVID is not a big deal because 90% of those tested are negative.

It takes a special kind of stupid to not understand the inherent inconsistency of those positions.

It also takes a special kind of stupid to ignore Italy’s 8% case fatality rate and Spain’s 7% case fatality rate... while touting reported deaths from China as the most reliable metric.

Finally, it takes a special kind of stupid to not understand that this is a slow progressing disease where death occurs an average of 18-19 days after symptom onset. So as testing increases, new cases are found 7-10+ days before the deaths start to happen.

Finally, South Korea - which has lead the world in a testing based containment response - was lauded for a less than .6% death rate a week ago. South Korea’s case fatality rate - with the broadest testing program in the world - is now over 1% today.

Because there is no acquired immunity, and this virus is more transmissible than the flu (ask any credible epidemiologist - or Rand Paul), well over 100 million Americans would contract this without the deployment of extreme social distancing measures. Using a conservative 1% case fatality metric, 1 million people die. But as hospitalizations increase (the US has just over 1 million total available hospital beds - for the whole nation), the medical burden overwhelms the system which causes the death rate to go up. Which is what is happening in Italy and why their case fatality rate is over 8%.

You want your elderly friends and relatives to die? That’s on you. Just know that makes you a profoundly awful person
You are predicting a 7-8% fatality rate in the US by referencing what you believe are the more reliable Italy and Spain rates? As an aside, I agree China data should be ignored when trying to model US numbers. You then switch your estimate to a "conservative" 1% (which is not a "conservative" projection if you really believe 7-8x is likely). You toss out an estimate of 100 million people contracting the illness to use the 1% number to show one million possible deaths. This is possible, by the way, but we don't yet know enough. You call people trying to talk about the numbers "profoundly awful." Yet also call people stupid and consider the posts you're reading "quite entertaining." You use hospital beds (there are "beds" being added on an emergency basis in pop-up sites, btw), yet fail to note it'd be the lack of equipment for severe cases as the real measure of "overrun" healthcare delivery.

With respect, do you have any idea how emotional and ironic your post about rational [hard] numbers comes across? You really think some of us trying to better understand the expected mortality numbers in this country don't care? If you're in Miami or can drive here, so long as you're not at risk, you can serve the people some of us are helping serve during the crisis. Feel free to message me and you can have a spot on our limited distribution team to the elderly (who can't leave their homes for fear of contact with larger crowds at the grocery and pharmacy).
 

thisu

Recruit
Joined
Jun 28, 2012
Messages
135
It’s quite entertaining to read on this board how the denominator for the mortality rate is so much higher because of the “hundreds of thousands” who are infected but not tested...
and at the same time read that COVID is not a big deal because 90% of those tested are negative.

It takes a special kind of stupid to not understand the inherent inconsistency of those positions.

It also takes a special kind of stupid to ignore Italy’s 8% case fatality rate and Spain’s 7% case fatality rate... while touting reported deaths from China as the most reliable metric.

Finally, it takes a special kind of stupid to not understand that this is a slow progressing disease where death occurs an average of 18-19 days after symptom onset. So as testing increases, new cases are found 7-10+ days before the deaths start to happen.

Finally, South Korea - which has lead the world in a testing based containment response - was lauded for a less than .6% death rate a week ago. South Korea’s case fatality rate - with the broadest testing program in the world - is now over 1% today.

Because there is no acquired immunity, and this virus is more transmissible than the flu (ask any credible epidemiologist - or Rand Paul), well over 100 million Americans would contract this without the deployment of extreme social distancing measures. Using a conservative 1% case fatality metric, 1 million people die. But as hospitalizations increase (the US has just over 1 million total available hospital beds - for the whole nation), the medical burden overwhelms the system which causes the death rate to go up. Which is what is happening in Italy and why their case fatality rate is over 8%.

You want your elderly friends and relatives to die? That’s on you. Just know that makes you a profoundly awful person
Elderly friends and relatives need to stay home until there is a vaccine. Don’t shut down the entire country. Oh, and we aren’t Spain or Italy. We don’t have socialized health care either.
 

LuCane

Administrator
Staff member
Joined
Oct 21, 2011
Messages
13,009
its been doubling about every 2.5 days
The total amount of deaths has risen while the death rate has fallen from 5.9% (a couple weeks ago) to 1.7% last week to 1.2% this week. We'll see how it's affected as other variables - e.g. lack of equipment for severe cases - come into play. To be clear, even if the rate falls below 1% (say, .08%), it's still a highly contagious and dangerous virus that'd kill 8x the amount of people the flu does. Not trying to downplay that aspect.
 

AmherstCane

Recruit
Joined
Oct 7, 2017
Messages
323
You are predicting a 7-8% fatality rate in the US by referencing what you believe are the more reliable Italy and Spain rates? As an aside, I agree China data should be ignored when trying to model US numbers. You then switch your estimate to a "conservative" 1% (which is not a "conservative" projection if you really believe 7-8x is likely). You toss out an estimate of 100 million people contracting the illness to use the 1% number to show one million possible deaths. This is possible, by the way, but we don't yet know enough. You call people trying to talk about the numbers "profoundly awful." Yet also call people stupid and consider the posts you're reading "quite entertaining." You use hospital beds (there are "beds" being added on an emergency basis in pop-up sites, btw), yet fail to note it'd be the lack of equipment for severe cases as the real measure of "overrun" healthcare delivery.

With respect, do you have any idea how emotional and ironic your post about rational [hard] numbers comes across? You really think some of us trying to better understand the expected mortality numbers in this country don't care? If you're in Miami or can drive here, so long as you're not t risk, you can serve the people some of us are helping serve during the crisis. Feel free to message me and you can have a spot on our limited distribution team to the elderly (who can't leave their homes for fear of contact with larger crowds at the grocery and pharmacy).
Your post is in extreme bad faith. Sad.

Nowhere did I predict a 7-8% CFR.

I used a 1% CFR modeled off of S. Korea (theirs is actually 1.4% right now - with testing that most accurately quantifies cases) that I said would increase due to the inability to provide medical care under the burden of this disease if the spread is not effectively curtailed.

Yet you’re quibbling over using beds vs. vents as the metric for healthcare capacity. Cool argument. Sad you don’t see that running out of beds, vents, doctors, PPE, are all correlated metrics of burden that will increase mortality. Now carry on with your bad faith posts.
 

CaneOil

Junior
Joined
Aug 3, 2015
Messages
3,629
One bad thing I just heard hundreds of thousands if not more have left NY city for other places. They will infect wherever they go. This isn't going away if you let everyone in the big cities flood the rest of the country. Now that people aren't working and getting pay checks there is no reason to stay home unless they are broke with no credit cards. Az @ NV should cut CA off right at the borders.
 

LuCane

Administrator
Staff member
Joined
Oct 21, 2011
Messages
13,009
Your post is in extreme bad faith. Sad.

Nowhere did I predict a 7-8% CFR.

I used a 1% CFR modeled off of S. Korea (theirs is actually 1.4% right now - with testing that most accurately quantifies cases) that I said would increase due to the inability to provide medical care under the burden of this disease if the spread is not effectively curtailed.

Yet you’re quibbling over using beds vs. vents as the metric for healthcare capacity. Cool argument. Sad you don’t see that running out of beds, vents, doctors, PPE, are all correlated metrics of burden that will increase mortality. Now carry on with your bad faith posts.
Extreme bad faith? Ha. You specifically touted the 7-8% numbers in your post and even drew a comparison to the "unreliable China numbers." You specifically said "a conservative" estimate for the 1%.

Here were your exact words:
"It takes a special kind of stupid to not understand the inherent inconsistency of those positions.
It also takes a special kind of stupid to ignore Italy’s 8% case fatality rate and Spain’s 7% case fatality rate... while touting reported deaths from China as the most reliable metric."


Quibbling? I'm addressing your contradictions. I've done so without calling you a name or attacking you personally. How do I not see what you say that I don't see? As someone who's been in public health and still works closely with their services, I can tell you that, at the moment, some health care workers are being sent home on PL. Whatever happens, it's unlikely to be a general manpower issue. Will more doctors be needed? Perhaps. There are steps being taken to remedy that possible shortage. I've mentioned, even in this thread (couple posts above), how variables can and will affect the more reasonable projection of 1% fatality rate.

Once again, you imply the death rate will increase. Is that what you believe? We'll go up from current 1.2%-1.7% range we've hovered in over the past week?

You've shown zero basis for my post being in "bad faith." If you can actually show an example without making something up, I will gladly apologize. It is not my intent. However, the evidence in the two posts in this thread makes you a namecaller and someone who emotionally argues from accusation and assumption.

Offer is on the table for you to work with some of the people you say "don't care." Carry on with whatever makes you feel right.
 
Joined
Feb 7, 2013
Messages
17,697
Taking the 1% death rate of those tested in the US, who right now are disproportionately symptomatic, including the critically ill, and then applying it to the general population seems to lack justification. I would at least like to see a logical rationale for this.

South Korea had around 9,100 test positive, of this number, 1% was the fatality rate.

Where is the estimate for the overall infection rate of the general population of South Korea?

Because otherwise you are saying that 9100 positive tests represented the sum total of coronavirus infections in the country of South Korea.

Is anything I stated above false or illogical? Are these not legitimate questions to be asking? Is the dogma of a 1%, or whatever the percentage, death rate in positive tests, being applied to the general population, is that something that should not be questioned?
 

rccollins

Sophomore
Joined
Jan 16, 2012
Messages
1,335
The total amount of deaths has risen while the death rate has fallen from 5.9% (a couple weeks ago) to 1.7% last week to 1.2% this week. We'll see how it's affected as other variables - e.g. lack of equipment for severe cases - come into play. To be clear, even if the rate falls below 1% (say, .08%), it's still a highly contagious and dangerous virus that'd kill 8x the amount of people the flu does. Not trying to downplay that aspect.
i agree.. I posted an article on friday that said just that.. and predicted that 25 days from then, we would learn that 2 million americans already had it. THe guy in the article was conservative with the death rate.. he actually figured on the .8 % you stated and i was jumped on as being an idiot and that the author should be thrown in jail. By this dude's math, ,we are probably at around 8 million americans having it by now. If trump does not close **** down and allows america to be open for business the rest of this week and next week, i fear a third of the country will have it. He could save hundreds of thousands of lives, potetnially over a million, but it does not look like that is happening.. here is the article from friday..


 

1LuvCane

Senior
Joined
Aug 9, 2018
Messages
4,416
It’s quite entertaining to read on this board how the denominator for the mortality rate is so much higher because of the “hundreds of thousands” who are infected but not tested...
and at the same time read that COVID is not a big deal because 90% of those tested are negative.

It takes a special kind of stupid to not understand the inherent inconsistency of those positions.

It also takes a special kind of stupid to ignore Italy’s 8% case fatality rate and Spain’s 7% case fatality rate... while touting reported deaths from China as the most reliable metric.

Finally, it takes a special kind of stupid to not understand that this is a slow progressing disease where death occurs an average of 18-19 days after symptom onset. So as testing increases, new cases are found 7-10+ days before the deaths start to happen.

Finally, South Korea - which has lead the world in a testing based containment response - was lauded for a less than .6% death rate a week ago. South Korea’s case fatality rate - with the broadest testing program in the world - is now over 1% today.

Because there is no acquired immunity, and this virus is more transmissible than the flu (ask any credible epidemiologist - or Rand Paul), well over 100 million Americans would contract this without the deployment of extreme social distancing measures. Using a conservative 1% case fatality metric, 1 million people die. But as hospitalizations increase (the US has just over 1 million total available hospital beds - for the whole nation), the medical burden overwhelms the system which causes the death rate to go up. Which is what is happening in Italy and why their case fatality rate is over 8%.

You want your elderly friends and relatives to die? That’s on you. Just know that makes you a profoundly awful person
You know what they say about opinions.....
 
Joined
Feb 7, 2013
Messages
17,697
i agree.. I posted an article on friday that said just that.. and predicted that 25 days from then, we would learn that 2 million americans already had it. THe guy in the article was conservative with the death rate.. he actually figured on the .8 % you stated and i was jumped on as being an idiot and that the author should be thrown in jail. By this dude's math, ,we are probably at around 8 million americans having it by now. If trump does not close **** down and allows america to be open for business the rest of this week and next week, i fear a third of the country will have it. He could save hundreds of thousands of lives, potetnially over a million, but it does not look like that is happening.. here is the article from friday..


“Insider Monkey” the yahoo finance newsletter shill, strikes again. His job is to hawk his newsletter. For gods sake, buy his newsletter before he posts another meaningless projection
 

westcoastcanes

At least not Marrero
Joined
Dec 5, 2012
Messages
4,997
The total amount of deaths has risen while the death rate has fallen from 5.9% (a couple weeks ago) to 1.7% last week to 1.2% this week. We'll see how it's affected as other variables - e.g. lack of equipment for severe cases - come into play. To be clear, even if the rate falls below 1% (say, .08%), it's still a highly contagious and dangerous virus that'd kill 8x the amount of people the flu does. Not trying to downplay that aspect.
And how time progresses, as non deceased carriers do not necessarily mean a recovered carrier.
 

rccollins

Sophomore
Joined
Jan 16, 2012
Messages
1,335
“Insider Monkey” the yahoo finance newsletter shill, strikes again. His job is to hawk his newsletter. For gods sake, buy his newsletter before he posts another meaningless projection
and yet his article continues to prove true, and those bashing the article continue to have their head in the sand.
 

For_The_U

All ACC
Joined
Feb 21, 2018
Messages
5,181
It’s quite entertaining to read on this board how the denominator for the mortality rate is so much higher because of the “hundreds of thousands” who are infected but not tested...
and at the same time read that COVID is not a big deal because 90% of those tested are negative.

It takes a special kind of stupid to not understand the inherent inconsistency of those positions.

It also takes a special kind of stupid to ignore Italy’s 8% case fatality rate and Spain’s 7% case fatality rate... while touting reported deaths from China as the most reliable metric.

Finally, it takes a special kind of stupid to not understand that this is a slow progressing disease where death occurs an average of 18-19 days after symptom onset. So as testing increases, new cases are found 7-10+ days before the deaths start to happen.

Finally, South Korea - which has lead the world in a testing based containment response - was lauded for a less than .6% death rate a week ago. South Korea’s case fatality rate - with the broadest testing program in the world - is now over 1% today.

Because there is no acquired immunity, and this virus is more transmissible than the flu (ask any credible epidemiologist - or Rand Paul), well over 100 million Americans would contract this without the deployment of extreme social distancing measures. Using a conservative 1% case fatality metric, 1 million people die. But as hospitalizations increase (the US has just over 1 million total available hospital beds - for the whole nation), the medical burden overwhelms the system which causes the death rate to go up. Which is what is happening in Italy and why their case fatality rate is over 8%.

You want your elderly friends and relatives to die? That’s on you. Just know that makes you a profoundly awful person
Really shameful phrasing and presentation, bud. Yep, a whole bunch of people are just eager to watch elderly die. That's the ticket! And anyone who doesn't agree with your apocalyptic projections are "a special kind of stupid", huh?


How about those two from Stanford who predict when all is said and done, coronavirus will have a mortality rate 1/10th that of standard influenza. Are they stupid too, I assume?
 
Joined
Feb 7, 2013
Messages
17,697
and yet his article continues to prove true, and those bashing the article continue to have their head in the sand.
I’m not putting my hand in the sand. I’m looking at real data from real scientists. I honestly don’t care what this guy has to say. He has a financial interest in pushing his newsletter.
 
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