Latest COVID-19 Math

LuCane

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The numbers in NYC & NJ alone will be significant. Population density is very high there & as testing is ramping, the numbers are surging upwards. The mortality rate will likely be between 3%-5%.

This is highly contagious. Doctors in Wuhan wore three (3) layers of PPE because it is that contagious.

New Orleans is also being hit hard because they recently had Mardi Gras with tens of thousands congregating in close quarters. Some of those people have passed away already (people in their 30s & 40s) who were previously healthy. A nurse in New Orleans (on the front lines) told me yesterday their case load is surging.

Los Angeles will also be hit hard as it's a gateway from China to the U.S. plus many people travel back & forth between NY & LA.

A tidal wave is coming. Be prepared and take extreme precautions. This is much worse than you think.

A Doctor in NY (who previously had EBOLA) fears COVID-19 more than EBOLA. Digest that for a minute.

Stay safe & take extreme precautions so we don't lose a large number of Americans & our economy bounces back quickly. If you don't take extreme precautions, you will see people you know passing away and the economy could go into a Depression...not a recession but a Depression. The stakes are super high.

Please do your part to exercise extreme precaution & limit the spread. It's in the best interests of this great country & humanity.
Those are a ton of words without any references to back up the enormous prediction of 3-5%. Do you have any US numbers you can share that make you believe in the likelihood of a 3-5% mortality rate?

A few anecdotes and a polite warning may or may not be helpful. You seem like a thoughtful poster. Just really trying to understand how we get to those 3-5% death rate numbers continuously thrown around.

We can all concede this thing is massively contagious and tens of thousands (or more) of people will test positive. The rate is my focus.
 

305to954

All ACC
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Ppl keep bringing up death rate numbers, the flu ( for some reason) ...main concern for many experts lie in these dacts
1. Our health care system is not build for this and this trend is putting our health care infrastructure and workers in a bind. They don’t have enough room, supply and man/woman power to battle this AND THE CAR ACCIDENTS, HEART ATTACKS, STROKE Etc.
2. This virus is extremely contagious and effects different ppl rather healthy or Not differently. Remember a few weeks ago only sick and old were in danger from it:wrong. Young ppl and health my ppl won’t be effected or need medical care: wrong.
3. This admin dropped the ball on preparedness, downplayed, shifted the blame, tried to panic then 2 days later with no change on the virus is promoting to open the country after his 15 day thing he said..now he talking about Easter (like it’s even up to him. The governors are the making this moves right now) ...really at the point all he’s miss is Heath ledgers joker make up and suit...NOBODY BLAMES TRUMP FOR THE VIRUS
 

LuCane

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Messages
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Ppl keep bringing up death rate numbers, the flu ( for some reason) ...main concern for many experts lie in these dacts
1. Our health care system is not build for this and this trend is putting our health care infrastructure and workers in a bind. They don’t have enough room, supply and man/woman power to battle this AND THE CAR ACCIDENTS, HEART ATTACKS, STROKE Etc.
2. This virus is extremely contagious and effects different ppl rather healthy or Not differently. Remember a few weeks ago only sick and old were in danger from it:wrong. Young ppl and health my ppl won’t be effected or need medical care: wrong.
3. This admin dropped the ball on preparedness, downplayed, shifted the blame, tried to panic then 2 days later with no change on the virus is promoting to open the country after his 15 day thing he said..now he talking about Easter (like it’s even up to him. The governors are the making this moves right now) ...really at the point all he’s miss is Heath ledgers joker make up and suit...NOBODY BLAMES TRUMP FOR THE VIRUS
Some of that is not factual. You really have no idea what you're talking about when it comes to how a health system manages "room, supply, and man/woman power." Are you aware one of the largest public health systems in the country is sending some employees home on forced Personal Leave? Does that jive with your claim of "lack of man/woman power?" And, I've acknowledged there will be (are) issues with lack of equipment, but not at all for the reasons you list. Health systems are pretty well compartmentalized. Especially in major metro areas. As it relates to your clearly inexperienced views on health care operations, this might really be a time to read and learn rather than keep writing "facts."

You don't think the death rate numbers are important? What should we focus on? The total people who get mild symptoms? How is that helpful?
 

305to954

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Some of that is not factual. You really have no idea what you're talking about when it comes to how a health system manages "room, supply, and man/woman power." Are you aware one of the largest public health systems in the country is sending some employees home on forced Personal Leave? Does that jive with your claim of "lack of man/woman power?" As it relates to your clearly inexperienced views on health care operations, this might really be a time to read and learn rather than keep writing "facts."

You don't think the death rate numbers are important? What should we focus on? The total people who get mild symptoms? How is that helpful?
First your misrepresenting my points. Right now our health care system is not overrun. Never said it was. BUT if we don’t get control of this spread that will become a reality..I didn’t say death rate isn’t important, didn’t even hint to that.. idk how u think that’s what I meant..





 

LuCane

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I didn’t say death rate isn’t important, didn’t even hint to that.. idk how u think that’s what I meant..
You said: "Ppl keep bringing up death rate numbers, the flu ( for some reason) ...main concern for many experts lie in these dacts (sic)."
Then wrote a list of three things which apparently should be concerns.
It stands to reason your implication is that the death rate isn't as important as those things.
If that's not what you meant, no problem. But, that's what came across in what you wrote.

Either way, keep an eye on the death rate, which seems to be hovering above 1% right now (a big fucking deal until we hopefully track down with a bigger denominator - total cases). Yet people continuously predict 3-5%? I don't understand where those numbers come from and that's why I entered this thread. Unless I am missing something from US numbers, 3-5% seems like hysteria and that's worrisome, too.

I guess you're saying that when the total cases "overrun" the hospitals in the coming weeks, the death rate will spike up from 1.4% to double or triple? I don't see it from current evidence (80% of cases are mild) and understanding how the hospitals work, but we shall see. Would prefer to be right on this one, as it means tens of thousands of lives. 5% is a **** ton of deaths.
 

Empirical Cane

We are what we repeatedly do.
Joined
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-JHU is the best of the best when it comes to public health...

-Regarding your general theme 2 I don't understand what you are trying to explain mathematically and epidemiologically. Maybe you can explain further?

-You basically take an arbitrary baseline (after introducing absolute totals...

Then your next point is that because there are 720 deaths today...

-Death rates aren't just a by product of the disease in itself...

If we pretend the three groups you mention are mutually exclusive...

-Italy may have an older population on average...

-A friend of mine I do research with is working on replacing ventilation...
They are pretty good.

I'm trying to highlight how the math isn't adding up to current level of hysterics. I could be wrong, but I would suspect we would be seeing much larger numbers already.

I do make an arbitrary baseline of "vulnerable" comorbidities, then assume a fully burdened mortality rate...the math isn't yet coming even close to that.

Again, 720 current UD deaths should be much higher.

death rate is 100% directly and indirectly attributable to the disease. It's indisputable.

If we pretend the categories are mutually exclusive, it only shows the current hysteria is even more unfounded in both health and economic damage.

Northern Italy has a much older skewed population with much less overall systemic healthcare resources or professionals.

We could hve 1,000,000,000 ventilators this instant. Guess what US doesnt have? Respiratory Technicians. By and large MDs, DOs, and RNs DO NOT know how to operate ventalators day to day. Anyone who sys differentlt doesn't know healthcare. Can they be taught, sure.
 

305to954

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You said: "Ppl keep bringing up death rate numbers, the flu ( for some reason) ...main concern for many experts lie in these dacts (sic)."
Then wrote a list of three things which apparently should be concerns.
It stands to reason your implication is that the death rate isn't as important as those things.
If that's not what you meant, no problem. But, that's what came across in what you wrote.

Either way, keep an eye on the death rate, which seems to be hovering above 1% right now (a big fucking deal until we hopefully track down with a bigger denominator - total cases). Yet people continuously predict 3-5%? I don't understand where those numbers come from and that's why I entered this thread. Unless I am missing something from US numbers, 3-5% seems like hysteria and that's worrisome, too.

I guess you're saying that when the total cases "overrun" the hospitals in the coming weeks, the death rate will spike up from 1.4% to double or triple? I don't see it from current evidence (80% of cases are mild) and understanding how the hospitals work, but we shall see. Would prefer to be right on this one, as it means tens of thousands of lives. 5% is a **** ton of deaths.
It’s all good. My point was we need to control the spread of this so it doesn’t overrun our health care system. Yes death rate is important to follow. But just as important is how easily this is spreading to the old and young alike and the fact contrary to early reports and beliefs it’s not just dangerous to the elderly or sick. Anybody can get it, some show mild or no symptoms, some who get it aren’t so lucky
 

Empirical Cane

We are what we repeatedly do.
Joined
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Messages
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Highly selective use of statistics my friend. One assumption after another. You need to use documented cases not hypothetical cases my friend. You apparently did not even pass a simple Stat class. What a clown and you call yourself "Emprical Cane", LOL.
What was selective?

Oh do tell how to make it better.

This will be good.
 

Empirical Cane

We are what we repeatedly do.
Joined
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Messages
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It’s all good. My point was we need to control the spread of this so it doesn’t overrun our health care system. Yes death rate is important to follow. But just as important is how easily this is spreading to the old and young alike and the fact contrary to early reports and beliefs it’s not just dangerous to the elderly or sick. Anybody can get it, some show mild or no symptoms, some who get it aren’t so lucky
No appreciable amounts of healthy specimens AT ANY AGE group appear to be affected more than common cold or flu.

IN FACT Gov Cuomo briefed "80% of infected have it resolved and they have no idea..." (im.paraphrasing)
 

Empirical Cane

We are what we repeatedly do.
Joined
Sep 3, 2018
Messages
6,167
Ppl keep bringing up death rate numbers, the flu ( for some reason) ...main concern for many experts lie in these dacts
1. Our health care system is not build for this and this trend is putting our health care infrastructure and workers in a bind. They don’t have enough room, supply and man/woman power to battle this AND THE CAR ACCIDENTS, HEART ATTACKS, STROKE Etc.
2. This virus is extremely contagious and effects different ppl rather healthy or Not differently. Remember a few weeks ago only sick and old were in danger from it:wrong. Young ppl and health my ppl won’t be effected or need medical care: wrong.
3. This admin dropped the ball on preparedness, downplayed, shifted the blame, tried to panic then 2 days later with no change on the virus is promoting to open the country after his 15 day thing he said..now he talking about Easter (like it’s even up to him. The governors are the making this moves right now) ...really at the point all he’s miss is Heath ledgers joker make up and suit...NOBODY BLAMES TRUMP FOR THE VIRUS
The flu is lso extremely contagious as is the common cold.
 

tcgrad1014

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Nov 5, 2011
Messages
11,066
Lots of speculation and numbers flying around here.

1. If the Chinese reported case numbers is a lie by a factor of 10, we can't believe their fatality numbers either. But reported cases are a result of testing. No way has China tested enough people to confirm 700,000 cases. The Oxford study that just came out finds that over 50% of England has/had Covid19 already and herd immunity is increasing, but confirming that by testing everybody is impossible.

2. Somebody posted about "exponential growth rate" of cases in the U.S. No no no! We have an exponential growth rate in TESTING of Covid19. If half of Americans have/had it by now, the entire picture changes. Because rich people and athletes apparently can get tested whenever they want, we already know that 25% of a couple of NBA teams tested positive. It's safe to assume that the 60k number (or whatever we're up to now) is far too low. But the severe case number count is probably pretty solid because the vast majority of those cases are getting tested.

3. Somebody posted about a 3-5% fatality rate. That's just absurd.

4. Somebody posted that 80% of cases are mild. That's wrong too. It's over 97% in the U.S.. And that 97% misses the vast majority of asymptomatic cases (people who will never have a confirmed case).
 

Salt

"It's All About The Roo"
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Jan 2, 2015
Messages
3,583
You said: "Ppl keep bringing up death rate numbers, the flu ( for some reason) ...main concern for many experts lie in these dacts (sic)."
Then wrote a list of three things which apparently should be concerns.
It stands to reason your implication is that the death rate isn't as important as those things.
If that's not what you meant, no problem. But, that's what came across in what you wrote.

Either way, keep an eye on the death rate, which seems to be hovering above 1% right now (a big fucking deal until we hopefully track down with a bigger denominator - total cases). Yet people continuously predict 3-5%? I don't understand where those numbers come from and that's why I entered this thread. Unless I am missing something from US numbers, 3-5% seems like hysteria and that's worrisome, too.

I guess you're saying that when the total cases "overrun" the hospitals in the coming weeks, the death rate will spike up from 1.4% to double or triple? I don't see it from current evidence (80% of cases are mild) and understanding how the hospitals work, but we shall see. Would prefer to be right on this one, as it means tens of thousands of lives. 5% is a **** ton of deaths.
The 3-5% number seems to come from the current death rate for world cases from the WHO which is right now 4%. Of course, that number is skewed by outliers like Italy, Iran, and Spain. Even so, that death rate has been trending lower (as expected) as total cases keep rising.
 

JD08

Evidence based and data driven
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Dec 19, 2014
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People tend to forget that the entire reason we're destroying our economy by sitting home is flatten the curve, which does not eliminate all cases, it just keeps them at a manageable rate so the health care system won't be overwhelmed.
 

tcgrad1014

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People tend to forget that the entire reason we're destroying our economy by sitting home is flatten the curve, which does not eliminate all cases, it just keeps them at a manageable rate so the health care system won't be overwhelmed.
You mean manage severe cases. Over 97% of all cases will not involve our healthcare system.
 

RemainMack

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Oct 14, 2018
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-JHU is the best of the best when it comes to public health. I definitely see how the cases went way up inflating the denominator and dropping the rate. That said, I do not trust China at all when it comes to reporting their deaths, and surveillance, either. Politics aside I completely agree with the Trump admin calling them out (though they should wait until this dies down) for turning their backs on dealing with it and/or being afraid to appear weak to the rest of the world. I also think they are leaving out another 0 in their numerator. I have many friends with family in China who heard that the number of deaths is a lot worse than they are reporting as well. It isn't just the denominator.

-Regarding your general theme 2 I don't understand what you are trying to explain mathematically and epidemiologically. Maybe you can explain further?

-You basically take an arbitrary baseline (after introducing absolute totals for immunocompromised, diabetes, etc. and coming up with an arbitrary baseline somehow with these numbers rather than using percentages of a rough 350 million US population) and then to prove your point make some sort of descriptive sensitivity analysis calculating a range of mortality rates based on theme 1. Your 75000000 and your descriptive analyses are badly flawed because you use hypothetical mortality rates for the overall groups to describe this 75000000 but the fatality rates for these sub groups are all much higher.

Then your next point is that because there are 720 deaths today when the virus has barely been in the country that it won't approach the expected death rate (of any of your hypothetical mortality rates)? The virus just started in this country in late February. It finally is starting to spread and spreading like crazy.

-Death rates aren't just a by product of the disease in itself. They also account as a result of people not receiving ample care (ICU/ventilation). The main fear with this disease that it spreads so fast that it can overburden our health systems. New York hospitals are already feeling the effects. Without more ventilators and basic equipment, a lot more people are going to die than simply having extreme symptoms. When you have a disease that has no vaccine (I would argue that the crisis of flu deaths primarily rests with anti-vaccine mentality of lack of knowledge to vaccinate) , spreads as quickly as it does, and has just moderate respiratory symptoms that could cause death without ventilation (and or with any of one a serious comorbidities this country is loaded with) you have a big problem.

It has much higher fatality rates in people who have major forms of CVD (lot of this country), diabetes (a lot of this country), or the immunocompromised (a lot in this country). Millions who are not elderly (defined 65).

If we pretend the three groups you mention are mutually exclusive and calculate 75 million/350 million of the overall US population we can say that 21% of the overall population has on average a higher fatality rate (or rate of being in ICU or or on ventilation) due to a disease that spreads insanely fast, has no vaccine, and in a country that in many areas (or almost all) does not have enough current resources to deal with issues pertaining to ICU/ventilation.

-Italy may have an older population on average but they are still experiencing a ton of deaths per day (6820 and counting and that's a month?) The point is that the sheer onslaught of this nightmare on our elderly, diabetic, immunocompromised, CVD, etc and on our health care system alone makes this a nightmare. it even downstream affects people with other conditions who need to be seen because resources will be used up.

-A friend of mine I do research with is working on replacing ventilation with another treatment for coronavirus as a way to see if it reduces hospitalization times and frees up more beds. That's how serious the overburdening of this disease is on the health care system: We are looking for any edge to even slightly reduce hospitalization times since so many people could be going there and dying without even basic care. and since we have no vaccine.

I'll also add that if we take a relaz
They are pretty good.

I'm trying to highlight how the math isn't adding up to current level of hysterics. I could be wrong, but I would suspect we would be seeing much larger numbers already.

I do make an arbitrary baseline of "vulnerable" comorbidities, then assume a fully burdened mortality rate...the math isn't yet coming even close to that.

Again, 720 current UD deaths should be much higher.

death rate is 100% directly and indirectly attributable to the disease. It's indisputable.

If we pretend the categories are mutually exclusive, it only shows the current hysteria is even more unfounded in both health and economic damage.

Northern Italy has a much older skewed population with much less overall systemic healthcare resources or professionals.

We could hve 1,000,000,000 ventilators this instant. Guess what US doesnt have? Respiratory Technicians. By and large MDs, DOs, and RNs DO NOT know how to operate ventalators day to day. Anyone who sys differentlt doesn't know healthcare. Can they be taught, sure.
1) you’re still badly missing the point: you took an arbitrary baseline and used a much lower fatality rate to skew your points very badly. In each of those sub groups, the fatality rates are going to be much higher. In each of those sub groups the amount of people sent to to icu or needing ventilation is also much higher. This is also WHEN accounting for age. I’m not just talking about death rates attributable to having the disease but the numbers who are going to die and fail to recover because they are going to icu and need ventilation when it won’t be there.

2) 720 deaths should not be much higher yet. Your math does not make any sense because you did not incorporate the role of time in the spread of the disease. What you ‘suspect’ makes no sense in terms of the spatio-temporal dynamics of the disease.


3) death is rate is attributable to disease? Um ok. It is going to still be attributable to disease but when you lack the resources in many areas (not just areas for the rich) it is still going to be attributable to disease when they fail to get the care they need.

4) if we pretend the categories are mutually exclusive AGAIN, 21% of our population (which is comorbidity heavy) is at an exacerbated risk of: death, ventilation, or being in icu. The latter two alone, and the desperate need for resources combined will drive up deaths. Trump and the administration and the rest of the world going more into lockdown is an intelligent thing. You did not prove anything at all based on my first point.

5) guess what lots and lots and lots of facilities don’t have? Beds. Space. Etc. again the sheer overburdening of the health care system alone will drive up deaths. I’m not going to go back and argue the ventilators and equipment. There is an actual reason that right now we are working on studies to improve hospitalization times: it is a massive issue on our health care system.

6)14 % of the us population is 65 and older (roughly 48 million). We cannot look at italy and ignore the disaster it remains for the elderly alone while on total lockdown as they are still losing 700 plus people/day.

7) Johns Hopkins, who I basically accuse of underrepresenting death numbers in China and their director of center for health security just said this about trump ending lockdown early:

‘“Anyone advising the end of social distancing now, needs to fully understand what the country will look like if we do that,” the health security director tweeted. “COVID would spread widely, rapidly, terribly, could kill potentially millions in the yr ahead with huge social and economic impact across the country.”

so do you understand that millions or even thousands won’t be death right now from a simple semantics point of view? You didn’t at all understand again the role of time in anything of what you said or in terms of a rudimentary understanding of infectious disease dynamics.
 
Joined
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People tend to forget that the entire reason we're destroying our economy by sitting home is flatten the curve, which does not eliminate all cases, it just keeps them at a manageable rate so the health care system won't be overwhelmed.
Which needs to be questioned, according to no less than Oxford
 

423Hurricane

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Feb 1, 2018
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I agree that the key metric at this point is the death rate but a number that Dr. Birx shared yesterday that stood out to me was that 90% of those tested were negative. As testing has ramped up, it'll be interesting to see if that number holds true.
 
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