Latest COVID-19 Math

Empirical Cane

We are what we repeatedly do.
Joined
Sep 3, 2018
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👆absolute latest data from Johns Hopkins (hardly a conservative or right leaning institution)


👆PRE-RELEASE and PRE-PEER REVIEW research study calling for the revision upwards of China's infected from 81,591 to 700,000...(from YALE and NYC's Mount Sinai btw...well known right wing crank and conservative hotbed of thought)

so...

3,281/700,000 = .005 mortality rate

Lets says they were doing blow off hooker's titties and drunk and got it half wrong...

3,281/350,000 = .009 mortality rate

And again, as if blow and drinking wasn't enough to party (keep it real Duke) they were mainlining the Horse and got it half wrong still more so...

3,281/175,000 = .019 mortality rate

Not a great look for the "but...but...but the death rate is so much higher than the flu!" crowd.

By no means is any of the above definitive, but the TREND is a plummeting death rate when actuals are becoming more refined each day.

Now, according to the CDC, 30,000,000 have diabetes, 35,000,000 have lung disease, and 10,000,000 have immunocompromised issues in the US. Not even counting that a large number have diabetes and/or lung disease and/or immunocompromised issues, let's just take 75,000,000 as a raw baseline.

4% mortality rate x 75,000,000 = 3,000,000 EXPECTED US deaths

2.5% mortality rate x 75,000,000 = 1,875,000 EXPECTED US deaths

.019% mortality rate x 75,000,000 = 1,425,000 EXPECTED US deaths

.009% mortality rate x 75,000,000 = 675,000 EXPECTED US deaths

.005% mortality rate x 75,000,000 = 375,000 EXPECTED US deaths


ACTUAL US DEATHS as of 24 Mar = 720

Funny how in math, 1 + 1 still must equal 2.
 
Last edited:

Tit-e-skr

Sophomore
Joined
Aug 22, 2017
Messages
1,346
👆absolute latest data from Johns Hopkins (hardly a conservative or right leaning institution)


👆PRE-RELEASE and PRE-PEER REVIEW research study calling for the revision upwards of China's infected from 81,591 to 700,000...(from YALE and NYC's Mount Sinai btw...well known right wing crank and conservative hotbed of thought)

so...

3,281/700,000 = .005 mortality rate

Lets says they were doing blow off hooker's titties and drunk and got it half wrong...

3,281/350,000 = .009 mortality rate

And again, as if blow and drinking wasn't enough to party (keep it real Duke) they were mainlining the Horse and got it half wrong still more so...

3,281/175,000 = .019 mortality rate

Not a great look for the "but...but...but the death rate is so much higher than the flu!" crowd.

By no means is any of the above definitive, but the TREND is a plummeting death rate when actuals are becoming more refined each day.

Now, according to the CDC, 30,000,000 have diabetes, 35,000,000 have lung disease, and 10,000,000 have immunocompromised issues in the US. Not even counting that a large number have diabetes and/or lung disease and/or immunocompromised issues, let's just take 75,000,000 as a raw baseline.

4% mortality rate x 75,000,000 = 3,000,000 EXPECTED US deaths

2.5% mortality rate x 75,000,000 = 1,875,000 EXPECTED US deaths

.019% mortality rate x 75,000,000 = 1,425,000 EXPECTED US deaths

.009% mortality rate x 75,000,000 = 675,000 EXPECTED US deaths

.005% mortality rate x 75,000,000 = 375,000 EXPECTED US deaths


ACTUAL US DEATHS as of 24 Mar = 720

Funny how in math, 1 + 1 still must equal 2.
Did you have TOC check your math?
 
Joined
Oct 11, 2018
Messages
43
I welcome the robust and polite discussion.
honestly you sound like a moron, a case study in the dunning-kruger effect. the worst part of living in the age of the internet is everyone with a search engine thinks they have a phd in research. There is a glut of raw information but most people dont have the capability to understand it. if you can digest this then we can talk, otherwise please stop embarrassing yourself with your multiplication tables.

An epidemiological forecast model and software assessing interventions on COVID-19 epidemic in China
 

Empirical Cane

We are what we repeatedly do.
Joined
Sep 3, 2018
Messages
7,171
honestly you sound like a moron, a case study in the dunning-kruger effect. the worst part of living in the age of the internet is everyone with a search engine thinks they have a phd in research. There is a glut of raw information but most people dont have the capability to understand it. if you can digest this then we can talk, otherwise please stop embarrassing yourself with your multiplication tables.

An epidemiological forecast model and software assessing interventions on COVID-19 epidemic in China
So the scholars from Yale and Mt Sinai are wrong? I'm not saying they are 100% accurate, but at some point, ACTUAL observations need to accounted for.

Perhaps you could help educate them?

you know with multiplication tables and all.
 

HighSeas

Sophomore
Joined
Feb 4, 2013
Messages
3,655
honestly you sound like a moron, a case study in the dunning-kruger effect. the worst part of living in the age of the internet is everyone with a search engine thinks they have a phd in research. There is a glut of raw information but most people dont have the capability to understand it. if you can digest this then we can talk, otherwise please stop embarrassing yourself with your multiplication tables.

An epidemiological forecast model and software assessing interventions on COVID-19 epidemic in China
You're arguing with the same ****stain who said there's no exponential growth.


Empirouette Cane will dance in circles grasping at straws and conflating stats to suit his narrative. He's an irresponsible troll who doesn't understand how perilous the virus is for hospitals and thus the population at large.
 
Joined
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Messages
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So the scholars from Yale and Mt Sinai are wrong? I'm not saying they are 100% accurate, but at some point, ACTUAL observations need to accounted for.

Perhaps you could help educate them?

you know with multiplication tables and all.
the paper was brought to my attention by my professor at Johns Hopkins who did his phd at Yale. lol so maybe he is wrong
 
Joined
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Messages
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You're arguing with the same ****stain who said there's no exponential growth.


Empirouette Cane will dance in circles grasping at straws and conflating stats to suit his narrative. He's an irresponsible troll who doesn't understand how perilous the virus is for hospitals and thus the population at large.
didtn realize that. im done here
 

Empirical Cane

We are what we repeatedly do.
Joined
Sep 3, 2018
Messages
7,171
You're arguing with the same ****stain who said there's no exponential growth.


Empirouette Cane will dance in circles grasping at straws and conflating stats to suit his narrative. He's an irresponsible troll who doesn't understand how perilous the virus is for hospitals and thus the population at large.
Care to refute the math?

It can't dance near as well as I can.
 

Empirical Cane

We are what we repeatedly do.
Joined
Sep 3, 2018
Messages
7,171
You're arguing with the same ****stain who said there's no exponential growth.


Empirouette Cane will dance in circles grasping at straws and conflating stats to suit his narrative. He's an irresponsible troll who doesn't understand how perilous the virus is for hospitals and thus the population at large.
um...um...exactly when did I say there is no exponential growth?
 

Canegrad89

Recruit
Joined
Oct 15, 2017
Messages
529
The numbers in NYC & NJ alone will be significant. Population density is very high there & as testing is ramping, the numbers are surging upwards. The mortality rate will likely be between 3%-5%.

This is highly contagious. Doctors in Wuhan wore three (3) layers of PPE because it is that contagious.

New Orleans is also being hit hard because they recently had Mardi Gras with tens of thousands congregating in close quarters. Some of those people have passed away already (people in their 30s & 40s) who were previously healthy. A nurse in New Orleans (on the front lines) told me yesterday their case load is surging.

Los Angeles will also be hit hard as it's a gateway from China to the U.S. plus many people travel back & forth between NY & LA.

A tidal wave is coming. Be prepared and take extreme precautions. This is much worse than you think.

A Doctor in NY (who previously had EBOLA) fears COVID-19 more than EBOLA. Digest that for a minute.

Stay safe & take extreme precautions so we don't lose a large number of Americans & our economy bounces back quickly. If you don't take extreme precautions, you will see people you know passing away and the economy could go into a Depression...not a recession but a Depression. The stakes are super high.

Please do your part to exercise extreme precaution & limit the spread. It's in the best interests of this great country & humanity.
 

westcoastcanes

At least not Marrero
Joined
Dec 5, 2012
Messages
5,159
It would be naive to assume China is only hiding infections and not deaths.

the death rate is certainly lower than we know now because there are definitely undiagnosed carriers. However someone that is infected and not yet recovered can’t be counted as a definite recovered yet either.

take a look at concluded cases, recovered and deaths, not currently sick. Currently sick can land in either basket.
 

RemainMack

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Joined
Oct 14, 2018
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-JHU is the best of the best when it comes to public health. I definitely see how the cases went way up inflating the denominator and dropping the rate. That said, I do not trust China at all when it comes to reporting their deaths, and surveillance, either. Politics aside I completely agree with the Trump admin calling them out (though they should wait until this dies down) for turning their backs on dealing with it and/or being afraid to appear weak to the rest of the world. I also think they are leaving out another 0 in their numerator. I have many friends with family in China who heard that the number of deaths is a lot worse than they are reporting as well. It isn't just the denominator.

-Regarding your general theme 2 I don't understand what you are trying to explain mathematically and epidemiologically. Maybe you can explain further?

-You basically take an arbitrary baseline (after introducing absolute totals for immunocompromised, diabetes, etc. and coming up with an arbitrary baseline somehow with these numbers rather than using percentages of a rough 350 million US population) and then to prove your point make some sort of descriptive sensitivity analysis calculating a range of mortality rates based on theme 1. Your 75000000 and your descriptive analyses are badly flawed because you use hypothetical mortality rates for the overall groups to describe this 75000000 but the fatality rates for these sub groups are all much higher.

Then your next point is that because there are 720 deaths today when the virus has barely been in the country that it won't approach the expected death rate (of any of your hypothetical mortality rates)? The virus just started in this country in late February. It finally is starting to spread and spreading like crazy.

-Death rates aren't just a by product of the disease in itself. They also account as a result of people not receiving ample care (ICU/ventilation). The main fear with this disease that it spreads so fast that it can overburden our health systems. New York hospitals are already feeling the effects. Without more ventilators and basic equipment, a lot more people are going to die than simply having extreme symptoms. When you have a disease that has no vaccine (I would argue that the crisis of flu deaths primarily rests with anti-vaccine mentality of lack of knowledge to vaccinate) , spreads as quickly as it does, and has just moderate respiratory symptoms that could cause death without ventilation (and or with any of one a serious comorbidities this country is loaded with) you have a big problem.

It has much higher fatality rates in people who have major forms of CVD (lot of this country), diabetes (a lot of this country), or the immunocompromised (a lot in this country). Millions who are not elderly (defined 65).

If we pretend the three groups you mention are mutually exclusive and calculate 75 million/350 million of the overall US population we can say that 21% of the overall population has on average a higher fatality rate (or rate of being in ICU or or on ventilation) due to a disease that spreads insanely fast, has no vaccine, and in a country that in many areas (or almost all) does not have enough current resources to deal with issues pertaining to ICU/ventilation.

-Italy may have an older population on average but they are still experiencing a ton of deaths per day (6820 and counting and that's a month?) The point is that the sheer onslaught of this nightmare on our elderly, diabetic, immunocompromised, CVD, etc and on our health care system alone makes this a nightmare. it even downstream affects people with other conditions who need to be seen because resources will be used up.

-A friend of mine I do research with is working on replacing ventilation with another treatment for coronavirus as a way to see if it reduces hospitalization times and frees up more beds. That's how serious the overburdening of this disease is on the health care system: We are looking for any edge to even slightly reduce hospitalization times since so many people could be going there and dying without even basic care. and since we have no vaccine.
 
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