How in holy hell are we favored on Friday??

CaneOil

Junior
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Aug 3, 2015
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2,637
if its stas at that im dropping a few hundred
It's not going to move enough to matter. Miami still gets a few extra points from being good 20 years ago. V still getting slammed for sucking for 20 years. On paper this looks like a bad line. How many picks and fumbles will Kosi have? Short week for the Canes and 2 weeks to prepare for V.
 
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coffeecane

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Jan 28, 2012
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476
Big money on uva plus 2. Either way I win. If Miami can win by 1 then it's a double header. If uva wins then I get paid for my grief. Love this bet.
 

NOLAcane34

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Oct 14, 2018
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That is almost exactly correct. Virginia's power rating is generally 4 to 5 points above Miami's, depending on which source you use. Given home field on a Saturday and Virginia would be roughly -7.

However, Virginia at home on a short week would be a larger favorite, closer to -7.5 or -8. Home teams always receive benefit of a doubt in those short week games, unless the road team had a bye the week before.

Miami at home on a short week is given benefit of a doubt. That's why the Canes are small favorite in the -1.5 to -2 range.

None of this is complicated if you follow the situational variables. In Las Vegas it is more difficult to pick winners than simply get a great pointspread on one game after another. That is a major part of it and it is one of the reasons that it is far easier to win at sports betting in that town than outsiders realize. You aren't sitting like a dolt in a chair with one wager at a standard number. If you have the proper instincts, know the right people, and do the legwork, then it is a mathematical situation of shifting small theoretical disadvantage to small advantage. Volume and an edge. Now that I'm out of town I don't enjoy those edges so my football results haven't been great for a few years. But I've done well on atypical stuff like the world track and field championships last week.

Virginia's power rating is not very high. They have been basically 30th to 37th in the country all year. Somehow the perception here has placed them far above that level. Meanwhile the ACC Coastal is condensed. That works on the high end and also the low end. Miami doesn't deserve to be much of a favorite or much of a dog.

The only exception now would be Georgia Tech. That team's power rating has plummeted and it now severely low, one of the worst I remember within the ACC in recent years. Miami would be a double digit favorite in that game if played right now. Georgia Tech's power rating is now 7-8 points below Virginia Tech.
Soooooooo are you saying drop a grand on VA or nah??
 

Mnhurricane

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You know the canes are gonna win this game only to build hope up so they can shat the bed again this year. It’s hurricanes football 101
 

mikedeep97

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Mar 23, 2013
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Ok, I read the rest of your post. And I do agree that if we can somehow not get off to a slow start (for the first time since ND 2017?) things could cascade and get ugly for UVA. Miami is good for a dominant showing once every few years and this might be it. It will take an early TD or turnover to get things going. The team might actually come out fired up for once since it's a Friday, alternate uniforms, lost last week, etc.
I'm glad you read the rest of the post. Hopefully these factors make a difference. All of us are tired of the same ole **** from this team.
 

Canegrad89

Recruit
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Oct 15, 2017
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344
UVA plays a tough brand of football. We tend to struggle against physical, disciplined teams. See Wisconsin in the bowl game. Also struggle against dual-threat QBs. If N'Kosi starts, it will give us the best chance of winning but I think this will be a tough game for us.
 

PanamaCityCanes

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Sep 20, 2019
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The line may move up or down every day, depending on how much money is being bet on UM or VAG. By adjusting the point spread, it induces bettors to put their money down on one school or the other. Vegas is trying to keep their losses to a minimum or possibly even come out ahead. They don't really care who wins.
Dude, don’t lecture me on sports betting. You are spouting off the amateur view of how this all works, anyway.
 

da truth

Junior
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Oct 26, 2013
Messages
2,011
I'll actually be in Vegas on Friday and would never bet against my Canes however I would certainly advise anyone around me that Virginia looks like a great bet and could be easy money....pains me to say that but Im afraid its true.
Tate is getting burn
 

AHURT12

Redshirt Freshman
Joined
Aug 28, 2012
Messages
501
I'll actually be in Vegas on Friday and would never bet against my Canes however I would certainly advise anyone around me that Virginia looks like a great bet and could be easy money....pains me to say that but Im afraid its true.
Maybe it's because the people that actually know something about see something that the video game players who dont know **** about football would never see.
 

HRIKN

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Dude, don’t lecture me on sports betting. You are spouting off the amateur view of how this all works, anyway.
Not lecturing anybody. Trying to keep it simple. Don't want to go into all of the many factors that make up sports betting. Would be too long of a post that most people would not read. Money moves the line more than some other factors might. Too many people take the fact that because Vegas puts one team to win by X number of points they are biased against the team picked to lose. All I am trying to get across is bet with your head, not your heart.
 

Tit-e-skr

Sophomore
Joined
Aug 22, 2017
Messages
780
Never seen a team with this much bad luck

Uf
-leading vs uf and then we drop a punt they score after that.

-then we go up 20-17, Jeff drops a td that would put us up 27-17 with 9 minutes left.

Unc
- go down 17-3, come back 25-20 miss a 2 point conversion on a bad drop.
- give up a 4th and 17 with 3 minutes left

va tech
- go down 28-0, fight back, score what many thought to be the go ahead td on an amazing play by Dallas only to be let down by baxa which leads to a tie game and then a total collapse of the defense.

sh*t is crazy. We are due for something good to happen eventually
Bad luck? That stuff has nothing to do with "luck".....it has to do with team that hired an Intern and a bunch of undisciplined players who can't make a play to secure a victory.
 

Canes Stan

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Jun 7, 2018
Messages
1,291
This way the talking point for our first big game next year can be “this was a team that was favored in every game but 1 and lost (x amount) of them”.
 

Canesfan1899

All-American
Joined
Nov 3, 2011
Messages
19,090
We were favored against Wisky in the Pinstripe. We all know how that turned out. That being said, time for some "us against the world" mentality coming from our guys. Let's turn this damn thing around!
The OL really needs to take on that mentality because they're ruining the season.
 

PanamaCityCanes

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Joined
Sep 20, 2019
Messages
678
Not lecturing anybody. Trying to keep it simple. Don't want to go into all of the many factors that make up sports betting. Would be too long of a post that most people would not read. Money moves the line more than some other factors might. Too many people take the fact that because Vegas puts one team to win by X number of points they are biased against the team picked to lose. All I am trying to get across is bet with your head, not your heart.
No, I don't think you get it. You're reciting a bunch of stuff that isn't true. It's stuff that novice gamblers tell each other to try to explain how sports betting works. See the response by @Awsi Dooger to one of your gambling posts.
 
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