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CJ Bailey needs to come home

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DMoney said:
I'd be surprised if he doesn't go pro.
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Mario:

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DMoney said:
But why are they focused on Mendoza? It's not because he's from Miami.

For all the mistakes GMs make, it's still a first round league. Look at guys like Darnold, Mayfield, Goff and Jones having success at their second stops. The guys who don't go first round at QB have a very small chance of success.

The Anthony Richardson comparisons are weak to me because he wasn't even good in college. I thought he'd bust and so did a ton of other people. Mendoza is an much better college player by any measure- stats (17 TDs/2 INTs), team success (#3 ranking and 2-0 versus ranked teams), and national recognition.

I don't know if Mendoza will be a great pro. That's the elite of the elite. But he's obviously a great college player that would break the bank if he went back in the Portal.
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I'm trying not to nitpick here but what makes the NFL a first round leave? If you're just sticking to this discussion of quarterbacks that's literally 50% of the starters in the league weren't drafted in the first round. The NFL is a business obviously first and foremost it's results driven it's financially motivated. So yes first rounders do yet priority obviously but that's because of the financial commitment made to them. It would be s*** business to turn around and draft someone in the first round to commit all that money to them and not give them ample opportunity to prove they're good return on investment. I've been on board with Mendoza since the first time I saw him practice at Cal. Personally I feel like he's probably going to be a good quarterback in the NFL more because of his mind then the remainder of his attributes. Especially considering the NFL is starting to get conservative again. It would be one thing if you're expecting him to be all pro and spraying the ball all around the field etc then I'd say he can be hit or miss but if you're looking for a game manager I feel like he's **** near the prototype for that because he can make the majority of the throws and he processes things quickly.
 
Mendoza will be colts version of Daniel jones which is pretty good in the league
 
DMoney said:
8.4 yards per pass thrown, tied with Ty Simpson.
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Median?

Beck is 8.1.
Little Tommy at FSU 10.3

The number one stat that correlates to wins? Explosive plays.

If we want to go with average, Austin Simmons is at 10 which is tied with Sayin
 
Dr. Citizen Cane said:
What are the odds CJ Bailey would transfer to Miami next year? Did we snub him in recruiting to a point that he wouldn't transfer here?
He is a better QB than Beck right this moment.
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Maybe we take him or Sellers or that kid from Cal, but I'd like to roll with that stud frosh we brought in this year Nickel (SP?). I would've liked to see him get snaps that Emory is getting. For good reason, I don't think the coaches will ever fully hand over the keys to Emory, so why are we wasting snaps with him instead of putting Luke in?

Also, if Coleman comes in and lights it up, I'd be willing to roll with the true frosh. Forget seniority, just win, baby!
 
DMoney said:
8.4 yards per pass thrown, tied with Ty Simpson.
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You got his air yards/attempt? Watching their games it feels like a TON of screens.

He’s been way better than I expected, so I’m not even trying to say he’s not good or anything as I was just wrong (I disagree with Lance saying he’d take him over almost any option next year, but that’s beside the point). Just curious.
 
TwentySix said:
You got his air yards/attempt? Watching their games it feels like a TON of screens.

He’s been way better than I expected, so I’m not even trying to say he’s not good or anything as I was just wrong (I disagree with Lance saying he’d take him over almost any option next year, but that’s beside the point). Just curious.
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I don't, but I'm sure someone more stat-savvy can find it. They definitely throw a lot of screens. When he buys time and holds the ball, which is often, he's usually throwing downfield.
 
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DMoney said:
I don't, but I'm sure someone more stat-savvy can find it. They definitely throw a lot of screens. When he buys time and holds the ball, which is often, he's usually throwing downfield.
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Bailey:
9.1 ADOT on all passes. 8.2/8.3 ADOT when Kept Clean/Not Blitzed. 4.9 ADOT <2.5s TTT, 12.9 ADOT >2.5s TTT. 4th worst graded ACC QB in throws <2.5s TTT, 2nd best in throws >2.5s TTT.

58.1% of his passes are under 10 yards. (16.6% Behind LOS, and 41.5% 0-9 yards.)

Beck:
7.3 ADOT on all passes. 8.0/9.0 ADOT when kept clean/Not Blitzed. 3.2 ADOT <2.5s TTT, 12.7 ADOT >2.5s TTT. 8/7th graded qb in <2.5s/>2.5s TTT.

64.9% of his passes are under 10 yards.
(26% Behind LOS, and 38.9% 0-9 yards.)



Out of ACC QBs the portal targets should be Mensah and JKS, without question
 
Calinative said:
Bailey:
9.1 ADOT on all passes. 8.2/8.3 ADOT when Kept Clean/Not Blitzed. 4.9 ADOT <2.5s TTT, 12.9 ADOT >2.5s TTT. 4th worst graded ACC QB in throws <2.5s TTT, 2nd best in throws >2.5s TTT.

58.1% of his passes are under 10 yards. (16.6% Behind LOS, and 41.5% 0-9 yards.)

Beck:
7.3 ADOT on all passes. 8.0/9.0 ADOT when kept clean/Not Blitzed. 3.2 ADOT <2.5s TTT, 12.7 ADOT >2.5s TTT. 8/7th graded qb in <2.5s/>2.5s TTT.

64.9% of his passes are under 10 yards.
(26% Behind LOS, and 38.9% 0-9 yards.)



Out of ACC QBs the portal targets should be Mensah and JKS, without question
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Got any stats on the Colton Joseph kid from ODU? Only caught a few games, definitely more of a runner but he’s intriguing as a lower tier option if it boiled down to it.
 
TwentySix said:
Got any stats on the Colton Joseph kid from ODU? Only caught a few games, definitely more of a runner but he’s intriguing as a lower tier option if it boiled down to it.
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Overall: 77.6 Pass Grade, 8.3% BTT%, 3.3% TWP%, 13.6 ADOT


<2.5s TTT: 8.3 ADOT, with an 80.0 pass grade, 4.1% BTT%, 1.6% TWP%

>2.5s TTT: 18.4 ADOT, with a 71.4 Pass grade, 24.2 P2S%, 12.2% BTT%, 4.4% TWP%

Under Pressure: 16.1 ADOT, with an 57.7 pass grade, 11.5% BTT%, 3.6% TWP%, 21.3 P2S%

Kept Clean: 13.1 ADOT, with an 82.2 Pass Grade, 7.5% BTT%, 3.2% TWP%, 21.3 P2S%
 
Calinative said:
Bailey:
9.1 ADOT on all passes. 8.2/8.3 ADOT when Kept Clean/Not Blitzed. 4.9 ADOT <2.5s TTT, 12.9 ADOT >2.5s TTT. 4th worst graded ACC QB in throws <2.5s TTT, 2nd best in throws >2.5s TTT.

58.1% of his passes are under 10 yards. (16.6% Behind LOS, and 41.5% 0-9 yards.)

Beck:
7.3 ADOT on all passes. 8.0/9.0 ADOT when kept clean/Not Blitzed. 3.2 ADOT <2.5s TTT, 12.7 ADOT >2.5s TTT. 8/7th graded qb in <2.5s/>2.5s TTT.

64.9% of his passes are under 10 yards.
(26% Behind LOS, and 38.9% 0-9 yards.)



Out of ACC QBs the portal targets should be Mensah and JKS, without question
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Beck 7.3 ADOT 😂 🚮
 
NateDogg said:
Beck 7.3 ADOT 😂 🚮
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12.48 ADOT if you remove the % of throws Behind the LOS which are almost exclusively screens

For Bailey this same metric would be 9.97 ADOT

Imo what you’re saying is trash is more attributable to the scheme. Becks main problem this year has been Interceptions and play under pressure.
 
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Calinative said:
12.48 ADOT if you remove the % of throws Behind the LOS which are almost exclusively screens

For Bailey this same metric would be 9.97 ADOT

Imo what you’re saying is trash is more attributable to the scheme. Becks main problem this year has been Interceptions and play under pressure.
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Thanks for the context.

Yes, scheme has been an abomination. I also think Beck struggles with confidence - doesn’t trust himself. And yes, I hear people criticize MC for not trusting him (which certainly doesn’t help his confidence)…but I still think Beck is in his own head way too much. Sadly, it seemed like he started to come out of it vs SMU but between penalties and drops, it was short lived.
 
NateDogg said:
Thanks for the context.

Yes, scheme has been an abomination. I also think Beck struggles with confidence - doesn’t trust himself. And yes, I hear people criticize MC for not trusting him (which certainly doesn’t help his confidence)…but I still think Beck is in his own head way too much. Sadly, it seemed like he started to come out of it vs SMU but between penalties and drops, it was short lived.
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I'll keep saying if you are a team with literally any hope of making a playoff run, it is idiotic as **** NOT to just blindly trust your QB and always give him the opportunity to win games. If you have an *** qb you're not winning **** anyways. If you have a good qb who you handcuff consistently, you also aren't going to be winning much. And in fact as we saw that mentality LOST us games we shouldn't have...

QB is so important, if you have what you actually think is a good QB, not blindly putting faith in him is a major mistake. Sure there can be times you hold them back, but that should not be the ******* mindset in the ******* 1st half of games whatsoever. The fact mario has been so conservative with Beck, especially after any negative play has been a killer of this offense in itself.
 
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