HurricaneVision
Staff Writer
- Joined
- Nov 16, 2012
- Messages
- 943
Much has been written since Miami was unceremoniously dispatched from the CWS about how good of a season was it, and where does the blame lie? I decided to build a database for ACC baseball and get a better feel for what kind of talent did we have on this team, did we underperform, or possibly outperform, expectations? I'll attempt to answer those questions with the use of advanced baseball analytics and where did our players fall.
BaseRuns
BaseRuns is a mathematical formula that tries to answer the question of what should a team score based on the events they give up over the course of the season- both in the field and at the plate.
Miami registered the 5th most BaseRuns at the plate with 362 runs. They scored the 4th most runs per game, so while they outperformed their metrics at the plate slightly, they were not extremely out of whack with the results per game. They scored 433 runs overall, which means they had some good fortune with sequencing.
Miami registered the 5th most BaseRuns on the mound with 263 runs (or 10th out of 14 teams). They allowed 254 runs on the season, so they were pretty much right in line with what advanced analytics would've expected for our team.
After you have calculated the BaseRuns for your offense and pitching, you can build an equation that predicts the strength of your team and what an "expected" record would be. This is called Second Order Wins.
Miami finished with an expected winning percentage of .642 (6th in the ACC), yet finished with a winning percentage of .806 (1st in the ACC). The difference between the winning percentage and expected winning percentage is .164, which is by far the best in the ACC. The expected order of finish was as follows:
Louisville- .812
North Car- .715
Florida St- .702
NC State- .655
Virginia- .644
Miami- .642
Clemson- .637
Pittsburg- .621
Duke- .579
G Tech- .570
B College- .568
Wake For- .542
Notre Da- .540
Virgin Tec- ..461
If I were a North Carolina fan, I would be ticked at how my season went compared to how it should have gone.
wOBA-
What is wOBA? It is weighted On Base Average. This tries to place proper value on each of the outcomes a hitter can see in a plate appearance. The number is scaled to follow the scale for on base average and uses linear weights to weight each event. Since the number one goal of hitters is to not make an out, the most important metric for a hitter is the on base percentage. Each tenth of on base percentage is worth 1.3 units of slugging percentage. wOBA is the best way to evaluate hitters in one succinct number.
Miami finished 3rd as a team in wOBA at .406, pushed up quite a bit by Zack Collins ridiculous season. The overall average for the ACC was a.390 wOBA, lending credence to the reputation as a hitters league and for Miami as a hitting-centric team.
FIP
What is FIP? Fielding Independent Pitching. This metric tries to strip away the items the pitcher has little control over with the belief that once the pitch leaves the hand of the pitcher, the outcome is largely out of their control. How many times have you seen a pitcher make a great pitch only to see a duck snort land and result in runs? Conversely, how many times have we seen a hitter smash a line drive right at a fielder. Over a large enough sample size, the pitcher who prevents walks, strikes out a lot off hitters, and prevents home runs will be much more successful than a pitcher who relies on balls in play being turned into outs.
Miami finished 10th in FIP within the ACC, mirroring their BaseRuns exactly. A FIP constant scales the FIP to mirror the league ERA exactly. Miami finished with a 4.48 FIP, which was much higher than their overall ERA of 3.60. This leads one to believe that Miami experienced some good fortune not to give up even more runs. Excellent defense and a reliance on left-handed pitching help contribute to Miami outperforming their FIP by quite a bit. Left-handed pitchers tend to outperform their FIP for two reasons: 1. They control the running game better. 2. They tend to induce more groundballs than right-handed pitchers, which result in more double plays and obviously groundballs result in fewer extra base hits.
Batting Average on Balls in Play
I talked above in the FIP section about the random variance that batted balls result in, and you measure this by BABIP. On the hitting side, Miami led the entire ACC on BABIP at .374. This means that every time a Miami hitter put a ball in play, there was a 37.4% chance it found a hole for the team. This does not include the plays that resulted in errors as well. The average BABIP for ACC teams was .345. This added fortune helps to show why Miami outproduced their expected runs so heavily. BABIP has shown very little correlation year-to-year and is mostly random.
On the pitching side, Miami pitchers had a BABIP of .290, which was good for 2nd best among all ACC teams. This is a big reasson why Miami was able to far outproduce their FIP with their ERA. Some of the fortune was Miami was solid defensively, but mostly, it is just good luck. The ACC average was .311 for pitchers on BABIP. Keep in mind a HR is not a ball in play, so Miami's total of 50 HR's allowed (3rd most in ACC) is not factored in here.
K%-BB%
The college game tends to be difficult to analyze due to the sample sizes present during the season. One area that does have a large enough sample to analyze confidently is in the K and BB percentages of hitters and pitchers. The metrics above are all retroactive metrics, but K%-BB% is one of the most predictive metrics for pitchers in-season. Miami pitchers had a K% of 18.0% (worst in the entire ACC) and a BB% of 9.5% (7th in the ACC). Their K%-BB% of 8.4% was 11th in the ACC and shows just how much the staff lacked the ability to miss bats this year.
wSB
Another area Miami was deficient this year was in their base stealing. Miami had 59 stolen bases, but were caught a conference-leading 30 times. This results in a -4.76 wSB, which is third to last in the ACC behind Virginia and Pitt. Miami must become more successful in their steal attempts, or run less frequently next year.
Individual Players
Zack Collins- You would probably think that Collins would lead the ACC in wOBA given his absurd OBP, he actually finished 3rd at a ridiculous .546. 98th percentile of all ACC players with at least 100 at bats and we will absolutely miss him.
Brandon Lopez- Senior SS who absolutely blew up in his year at Coral Gables. Lopez finished 21st out of 126 ACC hitters with at least 100 at-bats at .449. 83rd percentile and a very good SS. Another player we will miss dearly.
Johnny Ruiz- Ruiz quietly had a very strong season for the Canes and finished with a .441 wOBA and finished in 78th percentile. Ruiz coming back next year would go a long way towards providing a veteran anchor to the middle of the lineup.
Carl Chester- Chester was solid this year with a .412 wOBA at 48th overall and a 62nd percentile finish. Chester had a knack for big hits and helped lead us to several late game victories. Really needs to improve his base stealing proficiency. Good player to return next season.
Willie Abreu- Abreu did not have the breakout season expected of him this year, finishing 53rd overall with a pedestrian .401 wOBA and 58th percentile ranking. Abreu will be missed more for his leadership and his RF arm, than for his actual contributions at the plate.
Jacob Heyward- Another player who more was expected of this year, Heyward finished 63rd overall and a .388 wOBA. Good for the 50th percentile in the league. Good kid, and a solid kid, but his production in LF is replaceable.
Randy Batista- A regular for the Canes who finished with a below average season at 67th overall, .386 wOBA and 47th percentile. Best served as a depth player, played mostly at DH this year.
Edgar Michelangeli- Excellent defensive player, but simply not a good enough hitter, finishing 107th out of 126 qualified hitters with a .339 wOBA. 16th percentile production from a 3B will not get it done.
Christopher Barr- Good defender and great base runner should be a bench player for a CWS type team. Finished at a very poor 114th overall with a .327 wOBA and only 10th percentile.
Jesse Lepore- Canes best starter finished 29th out of 54 ACC starters with a 4.01 FIP that finished 47th percentile.
Michael Mediavilla- The Friday night starter for the Canes had a solid year, and deserves to be in a rotation, but a 4.28 FIP was good for only 37th overall and a 33rd percentile finish.
Danny Garcia- A Senior lefty who got the most out of his ability, but here is where the Canes have to upgrade. Garcia finished 49th out of 54 starters with a 5.10 FIP and 11th percentile overall.
Thomas Woodrey- Woodrey started the season as the Friday starter for Miami, but showed very quickly he was not up to the task. Woodrey finished 52nd out of 54 with a 5.48 FIP, good for 6th percentile.
Bryan Garcia- Solid, not spectacular, closer for the Canes finished 18th out of 108 relievers with at least 10 innings pitched with a 2.96 FIP. Signed to go pro and will be missed. Most likely will be replaced by a freshman.
Frankie Bartow- A solid reliever for the Canes, Bartow finished 35th among relievers with a 3.59 FIP, for the 68th percentile. Looks to fill a similar role next season.
Andrew Cabezas- Another freshman who enjoyed a solid season, Cabezas finished 38th with a 3.72 FIP, for the 65th percentile. Possible starter next season, but really is best suited for middle relief.
Kevin Pimentel- Middle reliever who finished 87th overall with a 5.16 FIP, good for the 20th percentile. Probably a guy who will fade a bit next year unless he can start missing more bats.
Devin Meyer- A freshman with a chance to be decent, but he finished 98th overall with a FIP of 5.63 and the 10th percentile. Best used as a situational lefty.
Overall-
Miami outperformed their expectations by as much as any team in the nation this year and then went out quickly in the CWS. When you look deeper based on BaseRuns, wOBA, FIP, K%-BB%, wSB, you see that Morris did a masterful job guiding this team as far as he did. This team was basically three above average regulars in Collins, Lopes, Ruiz, and a solid closer and a couple of decent relievers with no good starters. That team found its way to win the ACC, win several big series, and make the College World Series.
This is my first time building a database quite this in-depth for the ACC and it was eye-opening to see the good fortune the team had overall, but also how poor the pitching truly was for this team. A good season, with huge questions for next season to come.
BaseRuns
BaseRuns is a mathematical formula that tries to answer the question of what should a team score based on the events they give up over the course of the season- both in the field and at the plate.
Miami registered the 5th most BaseRuns at the plate with 362 runs. They scored the 4th most runs per game, so while they outperformed their metrics at the plate slightly, they were not extremely out of whack with the results per game. They scored 433 runs overall, which means they had some good fortune with sequencing.
Miami registered the 5th most BaseRuns on the mound with 263 runs (or 10th out of 14 teams). They allowed 254 runs on the season, so they were pretty much right in line with what advanced analytics would've expected for our team.
After you have calculated the BaseRuns for your offense and pitching, you can build an equation that predicts the strength of your team and what an "expected" record would be. This is called Second Order Wins.
Miami finished with an expected winning percentage of .642 (6th in the ACC), yet finished with a winning percentage of .806 (1st in the ACC). The difference between the winning percentage and expected winning percentage is .164, which is by far the best in the ACC. The expected order of finish was as follows:
Louisville- .812
North Car- .715
Florida St- .702
NC State- .655
Virginia- .644
Miami- .642
Clemson- .637
Pittsburg- .621
Duke- .579
G Tech- .570
B College- .568
Wake For- .542
Notre Da- .540
Virgin Tec- ..461
If I were a North Carolina fan, I would be ticked at how my season went compared to how it should have gone.
wOBA-
What is wOBA? It is weighted On Base Average. This tries to place proper value on each of the outcomes a hitter can see in a plate appearance. The number is scaled to follow the scale for on base average and uses linear weights to weight each event. Since the number one goal of hitters is to not make an out, the most important metric for a hitter is the on base percentage. Each tenth of on base percentage is worth 1.3 units of slugging percentage. wOBA is the best way to evaluate hitters in one succinct number.
Miami finished 3rd as a team in wOBA at .406, pushed up quite a bit by Zack Collins ridiculous season. The overall average for the ACC was a.390 wOBA, lending credence to the reputation as a hitters league and for Miami as a hitting-centric team.
FIP
What is FIP? Fielding Independent Pitching. This metric tries to strip away the items the pitcher has little control over with the belief that once the pitch leaves the hand of the pitcher, the outcome is largely out of their control. How many times have you seen a pitcher make a great pitch only to see a duck snort land and result in runs? Conversely, how many times have we seen a hitter smash a line drive right at a fielder. Over a large enough sample size, the pitcher who prevents walks, strikes out a lot off hitters, and prevents home runs will be much more successful than a pitcher who relies on balls in play being turned into outs.
Miami finished 10th in FIP within the ACC, mirroring their BaseRuns exactly. A FIP constant scales the FIP to mirror the league ERA exactly. Miami finished with a 4.48 FIP, which was much higher than their overall ERA of 3.60. This leads one to believe that Miami experienced some good fortune not to give up even more runs. Excellent defense and a reliance on left-handed pitching help contribute to Miami outperforming their FIP by quite a bit. Left-handed pitchers tend to outperform their FIP for two reasons: 1. They control the running game better. 2. They tend to induce more groundballs than right-handed pitchers, which result in more double plays and obviously groundballs result in fewer extra base hits.
Batting Average on Balls in Play
I talked above in the FIP section about the random variance that batted balls result in, and you measure this by BABIP. On the hitting side, Miami led the entire ACC on BABIP at .374. This means that every time a Miami hitter put a ball in play, there was a 37.4% chance it found a hole for the team. This does not include the plays that resulted in errors as well. The average BABIP for ACC teams was .345. This added fortune helps to show why Miami outproduced their expected runs so heavily. BABIP has shown very little correlation year-to-year and is mostly random.
On the pitching side, Miami pitchers had a BABIP of .290, which was good for 2nd best among all ACC teams. This is a big reasson why Miami was able to far outproduce their FIP with their ERA. Some of the fortune was Miami was solid defensively, but mostly, it is just good luck. The ACC average was .311 for pitchers on BABIP. Keep in mind a HR is not a ball in play, so Miami's total of 50 HR's allowed (3rd most in ACC) is not factored in here.
K%-BB%
The college game tends to be difficult to analyze due to the sample sizes present during the season. One area that does have a large enough sample to analyze confidently is in the K and BB percentages of hitters and pitchers. The metrics above are all retroactive metrics, but K%-BB% is one of the most predictive metrics for pitchers in-season. Miami pitchers had a K% of 18.0% (worst in the entire ACC) and a BB% of 9.5% (7th in the ACC). Their K%-BB% of 8.4% was 11th in the ACC and shows just how much the staff lacked the ability to miss bats this year.
wSB
Another area Miami was deficient this year was in their base stealing. Miami had 59 stolen bases, but were caught a conference-leading 30 times. This results in a -4.76 wSB, which is third to last in the ACC behind Virginia and Pitt. Miami must become more successful in their steal attempts, or run less frequently next year.
Individual Players
Zack Collins- You would probably think that Collins would lead the ACC in wOBA given his absurd OBP, he actually finished 3rd at a ridiculous .546. 98th percentile of all ACC players with at least 100 at bats and we will absolutely miss him.
Brandon Lopez- Senior SS who absolutely blew up in his year at Coral Gables. Lopez finished 21st out of 126 ACC hitters with at least 100 at-bats at .449. 83rd percentile and a very good SS. Another player we will miss dearly.
Johnny Ruiz- Ruiz quietly had a very strong season for the Canes and finished with a .441 wOBA and finished in 78th percentile. Ruiz coming back next year would go a long way towards providing a veteran anchor to the middle of the lineup.
Carl Chester- Chester was solid this year with a .412 wOBA at 48th overall and a 62nd percentile finish. Chester had a knack for big hits and helped lead us to several late game victories. Really needs to improve his base stealing proficiency. Good player to return next season.
Willie Abreu- Abreu did not have the breakout season expected of him this year, finishing 53rd overall with a pedestrian .401 wOBA and 58th percentile ranking. Abreu will be missed more for his leadership and his RF arm, than for his actual contributions at the plate.
Jacob Heyward- Another player who more was expected of this year, Heyward finished 63rd overall and a .388 wOBA. Good for the 50th percentile in the league. Good kid, and a solid kid, but his production in LF is replaceable.
Randy Batista- A regular for the Canes who finished with a below average season at 67th overall, .386 wOBA and 47th percentile. Best served as a depth player, played mostly at DH this year.
Edgar Michelangeli- Excellent defensive player, but simply not a good enough hitter, finishing 107th out of 126 qualified hitters with a .339 wOBA. 16th percentile production from a 3B will not get it done.
Christopher Barr- Good defender and great base runner should be a bench player for a CWS type team. Finished at a very poor 114th overall with a .327 wOBA and only 10th percentile.
Jesse Lepore- Canes best starter finished 29th out of 54 ACC starters with a 4.01 FIP that finished 47th percentile.
Michael Mediavilla- The Friday night starter for the Canes had a solid year, and deserves to be in a rotation, but a 4.28 FIP was good for only 37th overall and a 33rd percentile finish.
Danny Garcia- A Senior lefty who got the most out of his ability, but here is where the Canes have to upgrade. Garcia finished 49th out of 54 starters with a 5.10 FIP and 11th percentile overall.
Thomas Woodrey- Woodrey started the season as the Friday starter for Miami, but showed very quickly he was not up to the task. Woodrey finished 52nd out of 54 with a 5.48 FIP, good for 6th percentile.
Bryan Garcia- Solid, not spectacular, closer for the Canes finished 18th out of 108 relievers with at least 10 innings pitched with a 2.96 FIP. Signed to go pro and will be missed. Most likely will be replaced by a freshman.
Frankie Bartow- A solid reliever for the Canes, Bartow finished 35th among relievers with a 3.59 FIP, for the 68th percentile. Looks to fill a similar role next season.
Andrew Cabezas- Another freshman who enjoyed a solid season, Cabezas finished 38th with a 3.72 FIP, for the 65th percentile. Possible starter next season, but really is best suited for middle relief.
Kevin Pimentel- Middle reliever who finished 87th overall with a 5.16 FIP, good for the 20th percentile. Probably a guy who will fade a bit next year unless he can start missing more bats.
Devin Meyer- A freshman with a chance to be decent, but he finished 98th overall with a FIP of 5.63 and the 10th percentile. Best used as a situational lefty.
Overall-
Miami outperformed their expectations by as much as any team in the nation this year and then went out quickly in the CWS. When you look deeper based on BaseRuns, wOBA, FIP, K%-BB%, wSB, you see that Morris did a masterful job guiding this team as far as he did. This team was basically three above average regulars in Collins, Lopes, Ruiz, and a solid closer and a couple of decent relievers with no good starters. That team found its way to win the ACC, win several big series, and make the College World Series.
This is my first time building a database quite this in-depth for the ACC and it was eye-opening to see the good fortune the team had overall, but also how poor the pitching truly was for this team. A good season, with huge questions for next season to come.
