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Over the past few weeks, whenever I've had the time, I've been watching film from some of UF's most competitive games of the 2018 season. Combined with the info we've gotten from their spring practices, summer workouts, and their supposed "insiders", we can come to a few pre-fall camp observations before our matchup. I'll have a separate post for UF's defense, and UF's Wr group in comparison to Miami's. ⚠ Fair warning, this is a pretty long post ⚠.
Biggest Takeaways/Observations
Franks improved under Mullen from his 2017 FR season to his 2018 SO season, but that progression is due to two things. First, as you can see above, Franks overperformed against poor competition and was below average against good competition. Second, Mullen tailored his offensive playcalling, particularly after their smackdown against Mizzou, to be way more conservative. UF fans have either not noticed (which I find hard to believe) or don't care about Franks' good QB facade. As to whether Franks has made major improvements from 2018 to now, we'll have to wait until kickoff to find out. Franks' development and hype over the offseason does remind me of the hype many of our fans gave N'Kosi Perry and Malik Rosier last fall. Now, there were definitely some fans that rightfully said our QB room was a disaster and would suck. Mullen is also an infinitely better QB coach than Jon Richt. Nevertheless, in looking at Franks' record there's no indication that he's the very good/"elite" QB that UF fans have said they expect him to be. Like our QB situation last year, hype and optimism aren't going to make Franks the "darkhorse" Heisman contender UF fans seem to think he is. Behind Franks, there aren't many options for UF. Just like Miami in its opener against LSU last season, UF won't have too many options to work with if Franks performs poorly. RS FR Emory Jones and RS JR Kyle Trask round out the UF QB room. Lots of their fans had expected Jones to beat out Franks by this point in his career (like we expected N'Kosi to beat out Malik), and Trask is a career backup.
We've got the most unknowns in our own QB room (who the **** is going to start for one?) but UF's QB situation is not infinitely better. Franks is definitely the proven gameday manager when compared to our own QB's, but he's a career underperformer against good defenses and has singlehandedly self-destructed their offense on numerous occasions.
Miscellaneous Observations
Biggest Takeaways/Observations
- Gator fans are massively overestimating how good of a QB Felipe Franks is. This is the first observation that's apparent when watching some of their 2018 film and looking at what gator fans are saying on their boards. A few months ago, I made a post breaking down Frank's progression from 2017 to 2018, and how his 2018 stat line was inflated by overperforming against bad opponents. Here's a piece from that post:
Level of Competition | Comp. | Attempts | Comp. % | Yards | Avg. Per Pass | TD's | INT's | QB Rating |
Above .500 Teams | 101 | 183 | 55.2% | 1,135 | 6.2 | 6 | 4 | 75.74 |
Below .500/D2 Teams | 87 | 139 | 62.6% | 1,322 | 9.5 | 18 | 2 | 127.45 |
Franks improved under Mullen from his 2017 FR season to his 2018 SO season, but that progression is due to two things. First, as you can see above, Franks overperformed against poor competition and was below average against good competition. Second, Mullen tailored his offensive playcalling, particularly after their smackdown against Mizzou, to be way more conservative. UF fans have either not noticed (which I find hard to believe) or don't care about Franks' good QB facade. As to whether Franks has made major improvements from 2018 to now, we'll have to wait until kickoff to find out. Franks' development and hype over the offseason does remind me of the hype many of our fans gave N'Kosi Perry and Malik Rosier last fall. Now, there were definitely some fans that rightfully said our QB room was a disaster and would suck. Mullen is also an infinitely better QB coach than Jon Richt. Nevertheless, in looking at Franks' record there's no indication that he's the very good/"elite" QB that UF fans have said they expect him to be. Like our QB situation last year, hype and optimism aren't going to make Franks the "darkhorse" Heisman contender UF fans seem to think he is. Behind Franks, there aren't many options for UF. Just like Miami in its opener against LSU last season, UF won't have too many options to work with if Franks performs poorly. RS FR Emory Jones and RS JR Kyle Trask round out the UF QB room. Lots of their fans had expected Jones to beat out Franks by this point in his career (like we expected N'Kosi to beat out Malik), and Trask is a career backup.
We've got the most unknowns in our own QB room (who the **** is going to start for one?) but UF's QB situation is not infinitely better. Franks is definitely the proven gameday manager when compared to our own QB's, but he's a career underperformer against good defenses and has singlehandedly self-destructed their offense on numerous occasions.
- The success of their 2018 offense was predicated on a good/above average O-Line. UF's 2019 OL is nowhere close to their 2018 OL. Another apparent observation when watching film on UF's 2018 games is the massive improvement made by their OL between 2017 and 2018. UF Co-Offensive Coordinator and OL Coach John Hevesy did a **** of a job improving that unit last year. This season he has an even tougher task, as he's working with less athletic and less game-ready personnel. Here's what their line should look like at kickoff on 8/24, though nothing has is set in stone. This is the most common rotation I've seen.
- LT - Stone Forsythe (RS JR, 6' 7", 323 lbs): Started 2 games in 2017 and 1 game in 2018. Played in 13 games in 2018 as a backup at guard and tackle, with some special teams duty. 3-Star OT recruited by Jim McElwain's staff.
- LG - Brett Heggie (RS JR, 6' 4", 314 lbs): Was redshirted in 2016. Played in 8 games in 2017, started in 7, before suffering a season-ending knee injury. Played in 9 games last year at LG and RG, but dealt with injuries all year long. 3-Star OC recruited by Jim McElwain's staff.
- OC - Nick Buchanan (RS SR, 6' 3", 291 lbs): Was redshirted in 2015. Played 2 games as a backup in 2016, and appeared in 1 game as a backup in 2017. Played a lot in 2018, and started in 12 games at OC. 3-Star OT recruited by Jim McElwain's staff.
- RG - Chris Bleich (RS FR, 6' 6", 321 lbs): Played in 4 games as a reserve OL in 2018 (CSU, Colorado St., Idaho, UM). 3-Star OT initially recruited by Jim McElwain's staff but ultimately signed by then-new HC Dan Mullen.
- RT - Jean Delance (RS JR, 6' 4", 313 lbs): Transferred from Texas to UF in 2016. Played 2 games at Texas, and played 4 games (CSU, FSU, Idaho, and UM) during the 2018 season. 4-Star OT that transferred from Texas to UF in 2016.
Looks can be deceiving. When initially looking at this UF OL you'd think it's a group of veterans that have had a lot of playing time. If you read the UF boards, you'd come away with the same conclusions. That definitely isn't the case though. Of all the players here, Nick Buchanan is the most experienced and game-ready, with 12 starts in his career. For UF, it's pretty important that their most experienced OL is their C. We had a similar situation last year with Tyler Gauthier, though we all saw the mixed results. At LT, Forsythe has never been able to break through until now but has a low ceiling. Brett Heggie has had injury issues his entire career, so that could be a problem in fall camp and on gameday. In his time playing though, he's proven to be a good OL. Chris Bleich is unproven at RG, but could be a solid contributor with the right development. He'll be experiencing a trial by fire on 8/24. Finally, Jean Delance is arguably the guy with the highest ceiling on the OL. He's probably also had the most disappointing career. Whether he performs at the 4-Star level he was recruited at has yet to be seen in his career.
In 2018 UF's OL starters were Martez Ivey (6-5, 315, Senior); Jawaan Taylor (6-5, 334, Junior); Nick Buchanan (6-3, 283, R-Junior); Tyler Jordan (6-4, 310, Senior); Fred Johnson (6-6, 330, Senior) (this is off their website). Overall, their 2019 OL doesn't come close to the in-game experience, talent, or potential their 2018 line had. Our front 7 versus their new starting OL is probably the biggest mismatch of this game. This is not the type of OL you want to field in your first game against a front-seven anchored by 3 senior LB's and an experienced and talented D-Line. Make no mistake, Miami has its own OL issues, and UF has a talented front 7 as well. Their front 7 though is not as proven or talented as our own and our OL has a higher talent ceiling than theirs. John Hevesy is a **** of a coach with a solid track record, but even he's going to have a hard time getting this OL ready for one of the best defenses they will face all year. If UF can't get their run game going it'll all be on Franks, and in that situation, he'd likely be under constant pressure all game. Also, like us, UF doesn't have a lot of good depth at this position. While Miami arguably has more bodies at OL, it doesn't matter, as neither of us wants to see some of our reserve OL's out on the field on 8/24.
- Florida has a good stable of RB's, with Lamical Perine leading the way. They don't though have any big advantage at this position. Unlike the uncertainty with UF's OL, there's almost 100% certainty that any RB's that see the field on 8/24 will come from the below group of three (in order of starting position).
- Lamical Perine (SR, 5' 11", 227 lbs): Played in all 13 of UF's games, started 1 game against Mizzou. 2018 stats were: 826 yds, 7 Td's, and 6.2 ypc. Split time with Jordan Scarlett all season, and still had a good stat line. Performed consistently well throughout the season. 4-Star RB recruited by Jim McElwain's staff.
- Malik Davis (RS SO, 5' 11", 191 lbs): Played in 7 games in 2017, starting two, before a season-ending injury. 2017 stats were: 526 yds, 2 Td's, and 6.7 ypc. Played the first 3 games in 2018 before suffering another season-ending injury. Performed consistently well in 2017 against good competition. 4-Star RB recruited by Jim McElwain's staff.
- Dameon Pierce (SO, 5' 10", 216 lbs): Was a backup in 2018, but played in all 13 games as a backup or on special teams. 2018 stats were: 424 yds, 2 Td's, and 6.1 ypc. Only got 69 carries all season, but didn't capitalize or perform consistently throughout the season. 4-Star RB originally committed under Jim McElwain but eventually signed by then-new HC Dan Mullen.
Lamical Perine is by far the most effective and experienced RB on UF's roster. He performed well last year and had a great stat line, even when sharing time with Jordan Scarlet. He was seldom used in the passing game though, only getting 13 receptions, and getting 93 yds out of 170 yds of receiving all year in one game alone. He is a solid RB and will be a big problem if our front 7 miss their assignments or if he gets into the open field. Nevertheless, Perine's improved 2018 stat line from his 2016 and 2017 campaigns is also due to the offensive line he had last year. In 2017, with a worse OL, Perine had far less of an impact, overall yardage, and ypc's despite having almost the same amount of carries he would have in 2018. How good he'll be behind UF's less proven and lower ceiling OL is to be determined.
Malik Davis and Dameon Pierce round out the proven RB's that UF has on its roster. Davis is a player that seems to have sky-high potential, but two season-ending injuries in his three-year career have prevented him from reaching it. Injury problems like the ones he's had in his career are serious obstacles for any player, let alone an RB. For this reason, Dameon Pierce is more likely to see the field against us. Pierce is another guy with a potentially high ceiling, but in the opportunities, he had last year he didn't capitalize.
When comparing these three to our own RB room of Deejay Dallas, Cam'ron Harris, Lorenzo, Lingard, Robert Burns, and the rest, UF has the edge when it comes to game time experience and impact. Nevertheless, a big caveat is also that neither of our RB's has gotten the reps/carries that the above three have. Also, when comparing talent, our RB room has the edge with Deejay, Cam, Lingard, and others being higher ranked recruits than Florida's top three. Also, being in a new offense should help maximize these guy's potential, though our OL will be determinant in much of that. Overall, at this point, Miami and UF are pretty even at the RB position. The best RB unit on 8/24 will be from the team with the least mistake-prone OL.
- UF has a potentially very talented group of Tight Ends, but they did absolutely nothing in 2018. Kyle Pitts (SO, 6' 6", 246 lbs), a highly-touted four-star recruit, is expected to start at TE for UF on 8/24. While highly ranked, Pitts didn't do much of anything last year. He played in 11 games on special teams and had 3 catches for 76 yds and 1 TD. Behind Pitts is likely Kemore Gamble (RS SO, 6' 3", 246 lbs), who played in 13 games on special teams and had 7catches for 56 yards. While also a 4-Star recruit, like Pitts, he didn't do much of anything last year. Finally, the third gator TE is Lucas Krull, who seems to have been an unranked recruit, and played in 13 games on special teams while making 6 catches for 75 yards.
Miami has the advantage at TE, and it isn't even close. While Kyle Pitts and Kemore Gamble were both 4-Star recruits, our own Brevin Jordan and Will Mallory were more highly ranked and have shown (particularly Brevin) real game day impacts. Neither of the above UF TE's had significant game time, getting all their experience in garbage time against bad teams. Also, Dan Mullen did not utilize the TE position at all last year. Pitts and Gamble could certainly be a problem, considering their talent and potentially high ceilings, but neither they or their HC have shown their usefulness in this position. Miami's offense will heavily utilize its TE's, there's no indication that Florida will or can.
Miscellaneous Observations
- Florida fans are preparing themselves for a 2013 level meltdown. I, like many of you, remember the meltdown that UF fans had after losing to us in 2013. It was a game, much like this year, where UF was a "top-ten team" coming off a double-digit win season and they were the consensus favorite. Much like 2013, the fans and "insiders" on their boards are making the same blow out predictions. Personally, I view this game as a toss-up that can go either way. There are a good amount of people on this board that share the same view. The gator though has not disappointed. None of them think we have a chance, and most think it'll be a blowout. For a team that hasn't been able to beat Miami in the same decade twice since the 1980s, you'd think they'd recognize how competitive this game is going to be. All teams have their homers, ours is no exception, but they take it to a whole other level. If they lose on 8/24, there will be an epic meltdown.
- We need to score first on 8/24 and take advantage of the fact that they don't have any film on us. At least for the first part of this game, UF's defense is going to be flying blind. Nobody knows what to expect from Dan Enos (watching years old film from his stint at Arkansas isn't going to help UF) and we need to maximize that opportunity. Scoring first will set the tone for the game and will be a major psychological boon for our team. The same goes for our defense. If our D is on the field first, we can't let Florida score at all. A three and out/turnover (could we be so lucky?) would be preferable but pushing them around from the first snap is what's needed as an underdog.
- We need a +2 turnover margin to win this game. One way or the other, we need to force at least 2 UF turnovers (assuming we have none) to win this game. While I believe our 2019 offense will be infinitely better than any seen under Mark Richt, our entire team takes it to another level when we get turnovers. Ideally, we don't turn the ball over on 8/24, but if we do, we need to make sure they have two more turnovers than we do. This will help our new offense with field position and give our defense needed breaks.
- We need Hedley to show up to have a chance. Miami lost its 2018 opener to LSU for two reasons. First, terrible QB play. Second, horrendous field position. While our QB situation will be miles better compared to last year, especially with Dan Enos coaching up our guys, Louis Hedley needs to be the answer for our punting game. Had we had a good punter against LSU, that game would've been far more competitive. Giving UF's offense a short field consistently will lose us this game. If we have good field position, our young secondary will be in a better spot and UF will have to drive downfield consistently (something they had a big issue with last year).
