Miami opens up as a touchdown favourite at FSU

Trinton Breeze

Sep 27, 2025 1 min read

It’s been a slow but interesting bye week for Miami, and the ACC chaos continues. The Hurricanes’ next opponent, Florida State, was just shocked by Virginia, and Wake Forest currently leads Georgia Tech.

The betting odds are now out for next weekend’s Miami–Florida State showdown. Mario Cristobal’s Hurricanes open as 6.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 55.5. Miami is 3-1 against the spread (ATS) in its 4-0 start, failing to cover only against Bethune-Cookman. Florida State is also 3-1 ATS, with its lone miss coming in the loss to Virginia.

ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Miami a 63.6% chance to win. As always, no matter who you back, bet responsibly.

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Comments (39)

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9
90scane

Sep 27, 2025

Closer to what I’d expect compared to -4.5 last night. Still think the Line/money moves to Miami winning bigger. Nd looking good. Lots of mid looking football

The U is back to work

Sep 27, 2025

Oh so it moved 2 points already ok

L A M P

Sep 27, 2025

Despite the Ryder Cup debacle, this is still America..

Save the U’s for our Canes.

TheEye

Sep 27, 2025

bdcane4eva

Sep 27, 2025

We'll win by at least 3 scores...hammer it

section9

Sep 27, 2025

I think it's tough sledding in the first half but we figure out Malzahn's trickery as things settle down. Beck uses the ground game to wear their defense down and opens up the air attack.

We probably have some issues with Duce Robinson, but Castellanos is largely contained by the Front Seven.

Margin is 14-17 points. Bain and Mesidor feast in the second half.

301cane

Sep 27, 2025

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

R
ristwasdown

Sep 27, 2025

The U is back to work said:
Oh so it moved 2 points already ok

Yes. I got in at 4.5

J
jtwist89

Sep 27, 2025

Got in just in time for the 4.5

TaylorWalls

Sep 27, 2025

Hard Rock still has it at -4.5 if all of you are that confident.

J
JgDaCane15

Sep 27, 2025

I see it at 4,4.5

TXCANE4

Sep 27, 2025

jtwist89 said:
Got in just in time for the 4.5

Me too

Mikeiavelli

Sep 27, 2025

ristwasdown said:
Yes. I got in at 4.5

Same. I normally don't bet on Canes games but that was too appetizing

Peruche

Sep 28, 2025

Can somebody explain why 4.5 is good and 6.5 would be even better, when you think your team will win by double digits. Asking because I know nothing when it comes to betting.

What is Vegas actually thinking?

Thanks a head of time for any responses.

Signed,

Peruche

TaylorWalls

Sep 28, 2025

Peruche said:
Can somebody explain why 4.5 is good and 6.5 would be even better, when you think your team will win by double digits. Asking because I know nothing when it comes to betting.

What is Vegas actually thinking?

Thanks a head of time for any responses.

Signed,

Peruche

View attachment 337722

If you're taking Miami, -4.5 is better than -6.5. You think Miami is going to win by 20, so it's better to only give FSU 4.5 points.

If you get it at -6.5, you lose if FSU sneaks in a garbage touchdown and the final score is 34-28, that's why -4.5 is better.

With the spread jumping from -4.5 to -6.5, sportsbooks have had money pouring in on Miami. Now they want to make FSU more attractive to try to balance out the bets.

xbobdog

Sep 29, 2025

I just got it at -4.5 through Caesar’s

R
ristwasdown

Sep 29, 2025

xbobdog said:
I just got it at -4.5 through Caesar’s

Yes line moved back down. No way the public was taking FSU that much right? Wtf. I get it's at FSU and a rivalry game....but even FD is back to 4.5.

scrantoncane

Sep 29, 2025

ristwasdown said:
Yes line moved back down. No way the public was taking FSU that much right? Wtf. I get it's at FSU and a rivalry game....but even FD is back to 4.5.

There’s so many influencers these days it’s hard to tell what line movements mean.

Generally speaking, the ones to be concerned about are Thursdays or later. That’s when the big money can be bet. So those late week line moves are often from respected groups rather than a guy with a Twitter following.

R
ristwasdown

Sep 29, 2025

scrantoncane said:
There’s so many influencers these days it’s hard to tell what line movements mean.

Generally speaking, the ones to be concerned about are Thursdays or later. That’s when the big money can be bet. So those late week line moves are often from respected groups rather than a guy with a Twitter following.

For sure. Just seemed odd. Could just be a correction. Some opened at 4.5. some books opened at 7.5. seemed to be a bit of disagreement amongst books to begin with.

9.5 is my number. I hammered 4.5.

Another interesting line I saw was UF +6.5 vs UT. Seems like the books respect that UF Defense.

Louisville a 7 point favorite vs that vaunted UVA team too.