Miami opens up as a touchdown favourite at FSU

Trinton Breeze

Sep 27, 2025 1 min read

It’s been a slow but interesting bye week for Miami, and the ACC chaos continues. The Hurricanes’ next opponent, Florida State, was just shocked by Virginia, and Wake Forest currently leads Georgia Tech.

The betting odds are now out for next weekend’s Miami–Florida State showdown. Mario Cristobal’s Hurricanes open as 6.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 55.5. Miami is 3-1 against the spread (ATS) in its 4-0 start, failing to cover only against Bethune-Cookman. Florida State is also 3-1 ATS, with its lone miss coming in the loss to Virginia.

ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Miami a 63.6% chance to win. As always, no matter who you back, bet responsibly.

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Comments (39)

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H
hurricaneman

Sep 29, 2025

My guess to a lot of people's thinking:

-Even if Miami wins it's likely going to be a low scoring game, given how Miami will likely play on offense
-FSU can put up points if the offense is working

So if you think the offensive upside for Miami is low and the offensive upside for FSU is high then you can get a line that looks like this.

My personal opinion is that the Miami offense has a lot of upside that has yet to be seen for a multitude of reasons.

scrantoncane

Sep 29, 2025

ristwasdown said:
For sure. Just seemed odd. Could just be a correction. Some opened at 4.5. some books opened at 7.5. seemed to be a bit of disagreement amongst books to begin with.

9.5 is my number. I hammered 4.5.

Another interesting line I saw was UF +6.5 vs UT. Seems like the books respect that UF Defense.

Louisville a 7 point favorite vs that vaunted UVA team too.

By public power ratings:

SP+ Miami -1.5/2

Sagarin Miami -5.5

ESPN FPI Miami -3.5

Massey-Peabody Miami -4

K Ford Miami -4

So it makes sense to see the line movement. Guys just playing numbers. Many of us have thought Miami’s power rating has looked too low all season (remember SP+ had #27 after ND). So now is the time to go prove the computers wrong on the field.

SinCityCane

Sep 29, 2025

Trinton Breeze said:
ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Miami a 63.6% chance to win. As always, no matter who you back, bet responsibly.

View attachment 337570

Sorry boss, no can do.

R
ristwasdown

Sep 29, 2025

scrantoncane said:
By public power ratings:

SP+ Miami -1.5/2

Sagarin Miami -5.5

ESPN FPI Miami -3.5

Massey-Peabody Miami -4

K Ford Miami -4

So it makes sense to see the line movement. Guys just playing numbers. Many of us have thought Miami’s power rating has looked too low all season (remember SP+ had #27 after ND). So now is the time to go prove the computers wrong on the field.

Good insight. I'm going off eye test and homerism. Trumps any quant system

Cajuncane

Sep 29, 2025

I just bet it on DK and it’s still 4-

Bet all but a couple dollars of what I had in my bank….

407cane

Sep 29, 2025

I think this would be as trick If it were Louisville coming off a loss and hosting us as a premier home game, FSU isn't particularly great but dangerous and they have speed

I think I may hammer this one and bama -10.5 (might alt spread to -9.5)

ultimately the season comes down to saturday night. that sounds dramatic but it's true

refs blew the best chance of GT losing. UVA is undefeated and has a cakewalk schedule, we still have Louisville which is going to be the one spot where I felt we could slip up, and if FSU is good enough to beat us then they're good enough to run the table

Flynell7

Sep 29, 2025

ristwasdown said:
For sure. Just seemed odd. Could just be a correction. Some opened at 4.5. some books opened at 7.5. seemed to be a bit of disagreement amongst books to begin with.

9.5 is my number. I hammered 4.5.

Another interesting line I saw was UF +6.5 vs UT. Seems like the books respect that UF Defense.

Louisville a 7 point favorite vs that vaunted UVA team too.

That Florida line definitely caught my eye too

H
hurricaneman

Sep 29, 2025

Flynell7 said:
That Florida line definitely caught my eye too

Would be nice for Florida to pull a few upsets.

Flynell7

Sep 29, 2025

hurricaneman said:
Would be nice for Florida to pull a few upsets.

No thanks, I don’t want them to generate any positive momentum.

Fightinibis

Oct 1, 2025

Peruche said:
Can somebody explain why 4.5 is good and 6.5 would be even better, when you think your team will win by double digits. Asking because I know nothing when it comes to betting.

What is Vegas actually thinking?

Thanks a head of time for any responses.

Signed,

Peruche

View attachment 337722

People are probably loading up on F$U….many think we will yawn coming out of the bye week and they will be fired the **** up after their loss. I can see the thought process from years past…hoping this squad is as different as we all think

J
JgDaCane15

Oct 1, 2025

ristwasdown said:
Yes line moved back down. No way the public was taking FSU that much right? Wtf. I get it's at FSU and a rivalry game....but even FD is back to 4.5.

I saw it at 4.5 the entire time.

J
JgDaCane15

Oct 1, 2025

407cane said:
I think this would be as trick If it were Louisville coming off a loss and hosting us as a premier home game, FSU isn't particularly great but dangerous and they have speed

I think I may hammer this one and bama -10.5 (might alt spread to -9.5)

ultimately the season comes down to saturday night. that sounds dramatic but it's true

refs blew the best chance of GT losing. UVA is undefeated and has a cakewalk schedule, we still have Louisville which is going to be the one spot where I felt we could slip up, and if FSU is good enough to beat us then they're good enough to run the table

GT can lose to anyone & Virginia is a touchdown dog this week to Louisville. GT & Virginia will both lose games. ACC is whacky like that. I agree this game is huge but I don't think it's "the season".

R
ristwasdown

Oct 1, 2025

JgDaCane15 said:
I saw it at 4.5 the entire time.

Depends on the book. Early in the week shenanigans

Poptimus

Oct 1, 2025

This line has not been moving the way I’d like to see it. Still lots of time before kickoff, but it’s linearly moving to F$U. Before you yell “tHaT dOeSnT mAtTeR”, ask yourself, “am I a winning gambler?”

Poptimus

Oct 4, 2025

Line is down to -3.5 at FanDuel and elsewhere.

The U is back to work

Oct 4, 2025

Poptimus said:
Line is down to -3.5 at FanDuel and elsewhere.

View attachment 338231

Crazy

TaylorWalls

Oct 4, 2025

Flynell7 said:
No thanks, I don’t want them to generate any positive momentum.

Yes you do. You want them to keep Billy Napier.

TrumpyCane

Oct 4, 2025

FSU was only -3 when they faced us in 2022

They won by 42

Trumpycane thinks sometimes people read too much into lines

Poptimus

Oct 4, 2025

TrumpyCane said:
FSU was only -3 when they faced us in 2022

They won by 42

Trumpycane thinks sometimes people read too much into lines

F$U closed around -7 in 2022 and the line moved significantly in their favor leading up to kickoff. I agree, the point spread isn’t dispositive, but you definitely do not want to see a big linear move away from you. Sometimes it won’t matter, but the odds suggest otherwise over a large enough sample size.