CIS Mail Bag: Week 16

CIS Mail Bag: Week 16

Canes Legacy
We're back for a Christmas edition of the CIS Mail Bag. This week we talk Christmas dinner, roster management, Ok State, and Unforgiven.

@ben (CanesInsight): Better meal: Nochebuena, or Christmas dinner?

I always favored Christmas Eve as a child/teenager (fried fish at grandma’s house) but as my taste evolved, Christmas dinner has taken the favorite. This year we had the ham, potatoes, and veggies. I also made my world famous red wine braised short ribs which will now be a tradition in my family going forward.

@Canedog (CanesInsight): Win DJ Scaife first came to Miami, he played guard and tackle win kneaded. He played pretty well four the moist part. This year he hasn't played well at awl. What's up with him? Dew ewe think he bounces back next year ore will he even be a starter?

He isn’t a fit at guard, he just doesn’t have the power or aggressiveness. I know when he was a recruit and freshman, the popular take was he’s really a guard because he isn’t long but at the college level, I think his best fit is RT where he can play in space and use his athleticism. He’s had 3 different OL coaches in Searles, Barry, and now Justice so that certainly doesn’t help his development. His starting spot should be up for grabs next year as his play hasn’t warranted keeping it and we finally have some young guys that could take it. A big part of Lashlee's offense is the inside zone so he has to get stronger and he has to fix his technique if he’s going to remain a starter.

@RVACane (CanesInsight): Fraggle: Porster or Troll?

He’s a tough one. I think he’s 85% porster with 15% troll mixed in. Either way, I always enjoy his threads as you don’t know what to expect.

@CFB_Hogan (CanesInsight): What do you think about NoFap?

Hey, if you got a problem, you got a problem. There’s help out there.

While researching your question and seeing that members refer to themselves as “Fapstronauts”, I absolutely lost it. That may be the greatest nickname I’ve ever heard, ever.

@ChicagoCane1992 (CanesInsight): Your guesses on players who stay and go after the year?

Philips, Roche, and Borregales have already declared. I think Cam declares as he sees the writing on the wall with the younger guys getting more and more carries. Coming back to get 8-10 carries a game isn’t going to do much for him. Jarrid Williams is an interesting one as he could benefit from coming back, getting stronger and putting together a strong final year but it would not surprise me if he left considering his age. Harley I think goes pro as coming back won’t improve his draft stock at all, he’s a late rounder at best due to his size (his decision could be based on King’s).

That leaves Bolden, King, and Jordan as the only other realistic guys. Bolden needs to come back, his 2nd half of the year was not good and the first few games aren’t enough in my opinion to be a high draft pick. Brevin’s injury history may push him to go pro and collect the money now as a 3rd-4th rounder. I could see him playing his way into the 2nd round if he lights it up next year. Now to King, he’s not a NFL QB and won’t be. Does he want to stay in college with Lashlee one more year and make a push for the Heisman or start his NFL career now as a slot WR/offensive weapon? I think (and hope) he comes back.

Edit: We believe in full transparency and a lot has happened since I wrote this and before it got posted so I’m not changing anything. King has decided to come back. BOOM!!

With all these guys with decisions to make, it is telling that no else (as of 12/26) has opted out of the bowl game. Hopefully that’s a sign of things to come.

@JD08 (CanesInsight): Of the teams that really flopped this year like FSU, LSU, and PSU, which ones will carry that streak into next year? Will there be any long term damage for the Big 10 and PAC 12 for their on again, off again, delayed, abbreviated season?

I think FSU is the only one that carries over into next year. LSU played a lot of young guys and despite what you think of Coach O, he’s already made changes at DC. They won’t (ever) be that elite squad from last year but they won’t flop hard again. Also, props to them for taking down the Gators. PSU is interesting but the Big10 is so bad I can’t see them having another .500 season again with their talent level although James Franklin is doing his best to screw up a relatively easy job to win consistently at.

That brings us to FSU and the current dumpster fire champion. FSU is a bad situation that is only going to get worse. Yes, bringing in Milton at QB should make that room at least competent but what surrounds him is near G5 talent. We’ll see what happens with the transfer rules but if the 25 IC limit remains in place, they are going to be at a severe disadvantage from a roster perspective from day 1 in 2021, before injuries and further attrition takes place. The only thing that can save them is if they are allowed to take unlimited transfers to get the roster numbers up. Their schedule is a rough one with games against us, @ UNC, @ Clemson, @ UF, and vs Notre Dame. That’s 5 losses right there with Clemson guaranteed to run it up. Can’t wait.

For the Big10 and Pac12, as much as they botched the entire Covid season, there won’t be any long term damage from that. The opinion of the Pac12 can’t get much lower anyway as they have basically become an afterthought. Oregon ruined their only chance of even being in the playoff discussion by dropping 2 games they shouldn’t have and then taking down an undefeated USC, who I don't think would have come close to getting in but would have at least been mentioned. The Big10 was awful this year with PSU and Michigan sucking and teams like Indiana and Northwestern being extremely overrated but they will bounce back as a conference next year even if it’s a 1 team conference (Ohio State).

@ClancyNoseBest (CanesInsight): Just because my roommate is a complete ahole, do you think Santa will also be an ahole and skip our house altogether? Just trying to manage expectations...P.S. I've been a good boy! (picture of dog was included in the question).

Santa knows who the good boys are and just from the picture alone, I can tell you’re a good boy. You deserve all the treats and bones a dog could want. Your ahole roommate won’t stop that from happening.

@Tetragrammaton Cane (CanesInsight): If freshmen aren’t getting playing time, are Miami coaches being truthful when they say they’ve upgraded their position group/team on signing day? And should Miami just aim on signing fewer HS freshmen and adding more Transfers due to the inability to actually develop players?

The “upgrading group/team” is coach speak for the most part because they all say that. However, elite recruits can help the team from day 1 and we have a few of those guys coming in this cycle, especially if they early enroll. Freshmen don’t necessarily have to start or log significant minutes to help the team, they can do that by playing on STs and pushing guys in their respective position groups as well as being quality depth. A guy like Gurvan Hall, for example, who hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire with his play, should feel the heat a little bit with James Williams and Kam Kinchens being added to the safety room. Either he steps up or loses snaps, although the coaches have to do their part though and play the best players or else the competition aspect loses its effect.

The transfer portal is going to change the way teams build their roster but with this 25 IC limit, your class has to be 80%+ of high school kids as transfers will leave your program earlier creating voids. In an ideal world, you leave 1-5 spots open for transfers as a band-aid for missed evaluations and unexpected attrition at certain positions. If you can’t develop players however, it will eventually catch up with you. Manny knows this and has to see that certain position groups are truly holding this team back.

@Tetragrammaton Cane (CanesInsight): In the past 5 years not a single true freshman QB has taken snaps in a P5 game (In a troubled season LSU managed to play 3 QB’s—2 are freshman). In fact, it seems like freshmen are not playing much at all compared to many of their P5 counterparts. Miami freshman with significant snaps: OL? Donaldson, Scaife, Clark, Nelson. WR? Thomas, Harley. RB? Dallas, Knighton, Chaney. DB? Bandy. DE? Garvin. … Nelson, Clark weren’t top 10 recruits for the class and Dallas switched positions due to emergency. I read once where Nick Saban said that a recruit should be able to contribute by the sixth game. If we use that six game scenario… Has Miami truly upgraded the team? Because it appears that if a kid does not get snaps his freshman year he likely won’t get very many or be very impactful over his career.

Nick Saban and his machine at Alabama may not be the best example to use when discussing true freshmen as they get the best of the best every year and those guys generally can contribute early. Bama also dominates teams and has the luxury of being able to play young guys in garbage time to get them experience . When you are in dog fights every week, it’s hard to put a guy out there to see who they are.

True freshmen play for 1 of 2 reasons. They are either too good to keep off the field (Garvin, Richards) or play out of necessity (Nelson, Clark). It all comes down to getting the best guys and playing the best guys regardless of age, the rest will take care of itself.

@Tetragrammaton Cane (CanesInsight): We can look at the improved record, 3rd down improvement and the advanced metrics, but this team really didn’t feel like an improved team — outside of TRANSFERS (King, Williams, Bolden, Phillips, Roche, Borregales, Hedley). I’m all for giving kids time, but with the exception of Harley, I can’t think of a single player who has significantly improved in the Miami coaching/S&C ecosystem (Hyperbole: Pope, the new favorite whipping boy has improved). Wouldn’t it just make more sense to take the Bill Snyder transfer model to its extreme and use signing day as supplemental?

Player development is going to be a major theme this offseason as we are going to have to replace guys like Phillips, Roche, Williams, etc. Let’s look at DE as an example where we’ve recruited pretty well in terms of stars but with guys consistently leaving early or opting out as well as switching positions, we still lack depth there and will need to take a transfer in all likelihood. Your high school guys, Harvey/Cam Williams/Chantz Williams, will take the majority of the snaps and be your depth. That’s where the portal acts as the supplement.

Let’s look at it from a numbers perspective in terms of depth. You sign 25 high school guys (we’ll use 4 years of eligibility to keep it simple), you have 100 years of eligibility (25 guys x 4 years each). If you are taking, as an extreme, 10 high schoolers and 15 transfers with 1 year of eligibility left, you now have 65 years of eligibility. If you do that over the course of more than 1 cycle, you won’t have any depth because you will miss on evaluations and guys will go pro early and transfer out leaving you with more and more holes to fill. We can be the kings of the portal but that can’t be the primary source of talent acquisition, it just doesn’t add up from the numbers side. You have to be able to recruit and develop to have consistent success over time.

@TimeB0mb (CanesInsight): Don Brown. When does Miami hire him and for how much?

Don’t get your hopes up. I’m not convinced Baker is going anywhere at this point and not sure Brown would even be interested in Miami. The furthest south he’s worked in his career was Maryland. I just don’t see it as a fit with how it ended at Michigan and if Manny makes a change, I’m not sure he would bring in a guy like Brown. I would love for Brown to be here, his defenses at BC were a thing of beauty but is Manny willing to go for a complete overhaul and turn over the keys to someone else? Ehhh I'm not sure.

@JOE'CANE (CanesInsight): Who do you think Miami closes with in February? Who should we be after in the portal? Other than Phillips who do you think should declare early? Did Miami deserve to play in a NY6 bowl? Score prediction vs Oklahoma State.

February closing (3 spots left)- portal DE, portal CB, high school CB. Who those guys are is anyone’s guess. If the NCAA changes the IC rules, all bets are off though.

The portal is ever evolving so names will change but some guys to know:

Doug Nester OL VT (Edit: Committed to WVU)- He’s a guy that could help us at guard.

Jermaine Johnson DE UGA (Edit: Committed to FSU)- Probably, as of now, the best player in the portal. He’s looking to get more playing time and that’s something we can offer with our 2 starting DEs heading to the NFL.

Justin Rice LB Ark St- He’s an interesting guy as this would be his 3rd transfer (Fresno State prior to Ark State) but he’s been productive (112 tackles in 2019, 7 sacks in 2020).

John Dixon CB South Carolina- He’s a CB so there has to be some interest. He did play the hat game with us on signing day a few years ago but who cares.

Outside of Phillips, I don’t think anyone should actually declare early. There’s no first rounders in that group and they all have more to prove. I don’t know their personal situations but there will most likely be guys that do declare, that’s what happens at Miami.

Miami did not deserve a NY6 bowl game, did you see what happened against UNC? I don’t care if we had a better record than them, they earned it on the field. With all the motivation in the world, this team laid on egg when it mattered most. That’s why we’re in the Cheez-It Bowl.

Going back to the motivation aspect, if they couldn't get up for UNC and an Orange Bowl berth, I don’t have much confidence in this squad showing up ready to roll against Oklahoma State. I hope I’m wrong but I see OSU having a big rushing day and trying to replicate what UNC did to see if we made any adjustments to the run D. Tylan Wallace at WR will be a problem on the outside and him vs Couch is a matchup I’ll be focusing on. Gundy vs Baker is the biggest mismatch of the night. They do have a surprisingly good defense which is abnormal for them but could present problems for Lashlee and Co. King coming back has given us some momentum and Miami teams tend to feed off that. Lashlee and King put on a show and Miami wins 38-37.

@Canedog (CAnesInsight): In the movie Unforgiven, after William Munny rode out of Big Whiskey after killing Little Bill for what he done to Ned, dew ewe think the remaining town folk heeded his warning to bury Ned right and not cut up nor otherwise harm no whores?

Three different factors play into this:
1. It is suggested that Munny has long since left the area, but there is no certainty about where exactly he is. The fact that he is apparently “prospering in dry goods” may have been a play on the fact that he is actually still very much involved in “wet work,” aka killing people for money.
2. I firmly believe there is such a thing as the “jerk vacuum.” Usually, the biggest jerk/s will get the focus while lesser jerks won’t seem so bad as long as the big man (in this case Little Bill) is out there. I’d put a lot of money on people in Big Whiskey almost instantly forgetting that this all happened and going back to who they were, with another Little Bill taking power.
3. You can tell Munny wants to just go killing crazy at the end there. He doesn’t do it because he’s a “changed man,” but if they give him a reason, he’s coming back. He’s probably camped out nearby with binoculars just waiting for someone to jaywalk or something so he can come back and lay the wood.

So no, they didn’t listen. And yes, he killed them all. The movie is called Unforgiven, after all.

Comments (7)

You were very encouraging to @ClancyNoseBest. Hopefully Santa was good to him despite his asshole roommate.
@Canes Legacy was right - Santa came and I got a new stuffed toy duck and lots of treats! He was very nice to me just like you and (most) everyone here on CanesInSight! My New Year's resolution I'm gonna get my own place and my own car!

Thanks everyone - Happy New Year!

Eye am glad you think William Munny finished what he started.

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